Running Styles Question
 

What is more important in determining the Running style of the horse, is it the horses beaten lenghts or its position in the pack.

Exampes.

A horse who is 3rd beaten 1/4 lenghts, and a horse who is 6th beaten 1 lenght. how would these be viewed?

Referring to the first call , I would tend to call the first example a Presser or Early Presser, and the 2nd one some kind of Presser. Depends on confirmation from other running lines and how they maintain that position to the 2nd call.

If they were Early, they'd be in the lead. If they were a true Early Presser, they should also have a number of Position 2's in their record, same distance from the winner's nose.

I tend to rely on running position, more than beaten lengths, to judge where they will try to run today.

Ted

The designation of running style COMPLETELY depends upon the pace said horse ran against. It cannot be answered otherwise without the "yardstick" of pace....THAT is unless you are Brohammering it. and, I might add, once I put Brohammer's point of view back in the shelf, my win percentages grew steadily.

ongoing misconception
 

EARLY horses do NOT have to be out front particularly if a race has several of them. Just because an early horse did not break on top does not mean it is OTHER than early....CONVERSELY, a late or sustained horse (War Emblem was a good example) may often be on the lead. THE PACE dictates it, not the position.

Many horses either going off form, or going up against much faster horses, DO NOT run "into" a race as far, i.e they cannot keep up as they had been in the past as their form deteriorates or they face a pace much faster than they are capable of competing against. The KEY here is the degree of early. IN BOTH cases, they cannot keep up.

Good example here is Hoosick Falls at Aqu....just met too fast a pace, but came back THIS day as the only speed and won at a price.

This is addressed to 20towin:

My response was about 'Running Style', to use your term, and I happen to use that term (as do others) to denote a horse's VISUAL Running Style (their pack order and their proximity to the leader/s), as distinct from its Energy Disbursement style. BOTH observations make use of the terminology Early, Sustained, Presser, Late and variations, and I would not wish to do without, or ignore the impact of EITHER measurement.

If you are asking about Energy Disbursement styles, Tompkins has something to say about that. If you are interested in visual Running Style, the 'Hat Check' Forum and other Match Up related topics discuss and make much use of these concepts from a VISUAL/POSITIONAL point of view.

Ted

without pace, position means very little. period

Hate to disagree, but , maybe to you, but not to others who have figured out how to use it effectivley - a closed mind is not a good thing. I think the Hat has proven that visually ESP works. Proving it doesn't seems to be prretty much impossible.

it is a parimutuel game
 

Following the crowd and being a handicapping clone is not what gets the prices.

Point is, the crowd, as a whole, doesn't use running style analysis properly, if at all, so using it as part a comprehensive pace evaluation is hardly following anyone. And it does get prices when you learn how to do it. Iprefer to focus on the running styles as a preference of the horses, and have been winning from that persepective for many years. I do not say that is the only way to go, but I do know it works.

running styles
 

Is that 3rd in a 5 horse field.?? or 6 in a 12 horse field ?
Some of this depends on the field size and where the horse typically runs.
huh?

Visual & Energy ESP
 

I think they are both important and NOT mutually exclusive. I would not discount visual ESP as I have seen ample enough proof in the "Hat" forum.

I take that into account. As far as running styles, I really only focus a lot on whether a horses is early or need the lead early. Presser and sustained aren't as important to me. If I have a horse who is 7th by 2.5 lengths, I tend to look more at the 7th than the 2.5 lengths back.

In your example, though, I would say the 3rd in a five horse field is more improtant thant he 6th in the 12 horse field - becsue the horse donsen't know how many are behind him, only how many in front. The 3 guys see two horses and stay with the, while the 6 guy could be last or next to last and he would never know it - he is not comfortable challenging the 5 in front of him.

Running styles
 

Ok How do you decide when there is a "blanket finish" ie: a 10 horse field
and 3 or 4 horses are fighting for 2nd or 3rd place money ?

not to be controversial, just injecting different scenarios. The point is,
it all depends on ????. context of the race.

Not sure what your getting at - I don't consider the finish for running styles - other than, I try to use race where the horses ran well. My running styles are all about the first and second calls.

Tom
 

I guess i used the incorrect terminology. What i meant to say was horses grouped very close throughout the race. ie; 6th by1-1/5 in a 12 horse field
at the first or second call, or 3rd by 1-1/5 in a 5 horse field.

My experience has been a horse 6-1.5 lenghts is more likey to run back to the 6th than the 1.5 lengths. At the first call, I always default to position over lengths. I would not give a speed point to a horse 6th-1.5 even though he was was within 2 lengths.

Tom
 

Remember Tom, in racing there are no rules.
IMHO

you have to look at the splits--if the fractions are slow or fast, where the horse was positioned at the break--everything enters the picture; determining running style is largely a factor of repeated position (hence, "style"), although caution here is important. the last several races may indicate a change in the horse's running pattern, for instance, or the animal may have been run at a much higher class level than it can handle, and its pattern is obscured by its unwillingness to compete, but on a drop to more appropriate company will shake off his lethargy.

it's difficult, at times, to appreciate "pressure": better horses are continually applying it, and can destroy a lesser animal in very quick time, much less than an entire fraction. so, you'll sometimes think, my god those are slow fractions, when, in fact, the pressure in segments of fractions was very high. this is a factor in evaluating style.

one of my favorite throwouts--but still the source of an occasional big mutuel--is the horse that looks like it's a closer, always 9 by 16--when in fact it is an early speed type, but lacks the turn of foot to take control of a race. you'll find this configuration at lesser tracks a lot (the first characteristic of a cheap horse is--CHEAP SPEED), and at the bottom of the class structure of mid level tracks. sometimes these horses enter completely paceless fields, and "wake up", to the astonishment of everybody but the astute, and run wire to wire. happens every day.

as to the 6th by 1.5, if the fractions are sub 22's, that horse is fast, period. was he caught wide? did he stumble the break and rush up to attain position? if the animal is lightly raced, and quick, then expect a good performance today, especially if he's up against animals incapable of throwing 21.4; if he's mature, look at his wins: was he positioned early in those victories? what kind of splits seem within his abilities? examining the other animals, does he look competitive? then expect that 6 by 1.5 to be 1 by 0bl, 2nd by .25, or something similar today.

what about condition? has he come off a LO? and has his habitual pattern deteriorated? excluding a trainer's MO, this is a good indication of an injured animal, and a toss. Brohamer says very plainly, when previously fast horses cannot attain position--and this holds for sustained pressers, too, but in the second fraction--the horse is probably seriously flawed.

the situations are everything in the match-up; and the more you know about the patterns, the more involute and abstruse the meaning of them. don't expect horses to run to your nomenclature: what you're attempting to do, is UNDERSTAND the nature of the race here in front of you, and exploit the POSSIBILITIES in it.

you're trying to make money, and variant perceptions are the cornerstone of that pursuit. use position and running style to SEE oppurtunity; there are so many variables, and so many caveats to every race, that it isn't feasible to use ESP like a geometer's algorithm; expect things to differ from your definitions, but use your definitions to illuminate the anomalies, then take the money home. some of my most satisfying--and heart-rending--races have been where a much over looked horse has performed exactly as i perceived, only to be snuffed at the wire by another animal i'd tossed.

welcome to racing. it sucks. :-)~~