Turfway "Live" Wednesday - Race 8
 

Let's do a Polyrace since it IS the wave of the future.

Here is race 8 on tomorrow nights card to be run at 6.5f.

One thing that I do in my work on this poly stuff is to only work races where ALL my fast contenders have lines from the poly surface. I do NOT mix and match. My quirky way.

Let's do the race from a matchup/ first call perspective ok? We have a nice clear early as you will see to get a projected FIRST CALL pace from.

Then we will:
1) select contenders who have shown an ability to run against the FIRST CALL proj pace

2) after selecting suitable horses and some lines we will chop out some horses to reduce the mix.

3) will post up the various screens on RDSS

4) see what shakes out come race time


first here are the tandems for the race. I LOVE this screen.

let's start with the projected pacesetter.

This is the #6 horse who kind of looks like a "stop on his own" type runner. We will use his 2nd race back to project 1st and 2nd call BUT keep 1thing in mind

1) Because he might be a stop on his own type we will also consider tandem horses from the last race also that was at 6f.

we will use his 22.4 - 45.7 to get us started but also consider the last race
22.7 FIRST call.

we will NOT select any horse as a contender who can NOT race against a sub 23 first call

screenshot of the 6 horse. line 2 is the POWER LINE

here is horse 1. how nice. his power line is also against todays pace at todays distance. he ran 2nd so we know he CAN run against these.

CONTENDER

line 3 is the line we will use and is also his POWER LINE

horse 2 has never faced a sub 23 first call. can he handle it? Darn if I know and until he shows it he is OUT

No line

NON CONTENDER

horse 3.

shows no 6.5f races but shows a tandem from the last race that our pacesetter #6 comes out of.

this guy finished 2nd running other than early and 3 back shows an aggresive
"fighting" win running early.

I mark this guy with an "unknown" style but KNOW he belongs

Line 3 is the POWER LINE

CONTENDER

horse 4.

sorry no poly lines and his last 7 races has NOT faced a sub 23 1st call. He can win just not for me

no line

NON CONTENDER

horse 5

this is the FAVORITE according to the ml. he shows 2 races against the #6 pacesetter. I have the lines checked for you to see

Positions in the 2 races??

10-6-7
10-7-8

are you serious??

No line. If he wins bless him.

NON CONTENDER :eek:

horse 7

shows 1 race over the poly. we step backa few lines and see he HAS raced twice against 22 and change 1st fractions. NOT sure of Hoosier cause I dont play there so let's mark the lines to see what shakes

horse 8.

can't get out of its own way man. slow horse that can NOT keep up early from the pp's

no line
NON CONTENDER

here is what we have. four contenders but we are going to chop some wood here .


look at the box I have around the 7 horse. BOTH the break and 1st call positions are marked, SEE how far out POSITIONALLY is off BOTH races? of the 4 contenders both those lines place him furthest out against the true contenders

for the WIN this horse HAS to go man.

first the screenshot showing the 4 contenders

here is the screenshot with the 7 removed

next I am gonna reduce to only the 3 horse's POWER LINES

horse 1 - line 3
horse 3 - line 3
horse 6 - line 2

first though this screenshot

Raw
 

here are the POWER LINES

Adjusted
 

Now the following screens will ALL be ADJUSTED data

Adjusted
 

Velocity

Adjusted
 

Energy

Adjusted
 

Tpr

Adjusted
 

Segments

Adjusted
 

Primary

Adjusted
 

The Bl/Bl screen

Why did I pick this race? The ml favorite is the FIRST horse tossed out.

Let's see what shakes tomorrow evening

ALL RDSS users are more than welcome to post up screenshots etc etc

Richie

Richie,

I read your analysis of Turfway 0304 race 8 with great interest.
With SPEC160 using the same lines you used I came up with 1-6-3-5 with the 1 and the 6 having a balance of 4.
My question is:
Do you find it effective to go back 90 or more days with animals as cheap as these?

Froggy

Hi Froggy,
I don't pay attention to days back. I am sure by doing this it burns me at times.

Hey if you do not mind a little feedback on the "balance" readout. When you get down to FIVE contenders be VERY wary of any horse with a balance of 9 or higher. Something is NOT right with the horse compared to todays computerized matchup.

While everyone selects contenders/lines differently this balance of 9 or higher when reducing contenders to FIVE was a "trigger" to throw the horse out for WIN consideration.

This remained CONSISTENTLY true for over EIGHT years of working the software.

stay cool
Richie

Raw Matchup vs adjusted data screen question
 

Richie:

How do you use or integrate the observations and data from the Raw Matchup information when the data gets adjusted? Do you go through the Matchup process with adjusted data? Are you looking for verification of the raw matchup info? And what do you do in either case? If adjusted matches raw and if adjusted leans toward a horse other than the raw matchup.

Thanks,
Bill

Richie

Thanks for the info on balance.
I get a little nervous when balance is 7.

Froggy

Bill
I use only raw unadjusted data when I work and BET races.

The other screens I put up to let folks see the adjusted stuff. After all to be HONEST there is almost nobody working races totally depending on raw pacelines.

For myself when I work a race ONLY the raw screen showing the pacelines is looked at. There also will be 2-6 :eek: lines entered for some individual horses I feel are the TRUE win contenders in an attempt to see a 'picture" of the horse combining pacelines.

It is ALL good Bill. Many ways to make a buck in this game man:)

Richie

Tp0313
 

Hi Rich
Thanks for picking a cool race on the polytrack
I am just going to show this screen
I used RDSS just as if it was validator
I picked my pacelines from the best of the last 3
from the ADJUSTED screen
based on my projected pace of the race

My win bets will be the 1 and the 5

here are the BL BL screen and the segments
screen
GS
Bill

Late scratch
 

I see the 1 is scratched. That leaves a field of 7 and now brings the 5 horse into the race. the line I marked 3rd back shows BOTH break and 1st call where he should be TODAY - trailing in 7th spot

so I will enter also referencing the line on the bottom against a fast pace where at the 6f point he was moving powerfully to the lead

I am just gonna post up the bl/bl screen

first the 5 pace line screen

now the bl/bl

The 6
 

Nice work Rich

The 6 was a nice solid 4/1 you really do a fantasic job teaching us
I could very easily see how you got down to the final 3

I really appreciate your work

GS
Bill

Here is the race result

Hi Bill
when you scratch the 1 YOUR readouts have the nice winner clearly best too!
:)

Richie