Oaks/Derby Double
 

Oaks - # 13 Mistical Plan - Early runner who does not need the lead to win. Fast.

Kentucky Derby - # 20 Great Hunter - Other than early monster who is used to getting knocked and bumped around. Fast.

Richie:)

Amazing Im taking a hard look at both of them.

That'll pay more than a couple of bucks if you knock that combo down. :eek:

I got Pizzola's rant today in the email and he likes Great Hunter as well.

first half
 

Heres for the little ladys

I will make win bets on # 3 and 13 WPS
I will work the derby later. This is for the Oaks

Strangly I have never seen this race!!!!

Oaks Result
 

DD is dead. Ticket ripped up.

13 needed the lead to win - fought the 7 and both got killed off.

Churchill Downs - Race 10
# Win Place Show
11 $5.00 $3.80 $2.80
4 . $5.20 $3.60
3 . . $3.60
Results: 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | ALL
Wager-Type Winning Numbers Paid
$2 Exacta 11-4 $30.00
$2 Trifecta 11-4-3 $131.00
$1 Trifecta Box $65.50
$2 Quad/Superfecta 11-4-3-1 $1830.60

Richie

Imagine that.
One of the top two program picks wins again.

Richie,
Isn't this the same program that you used to use to support youself.
Do I see a tri in the top four. 5/1 odds on the tri box.

Bill,
Good job of getting all of the contenders in the top four.

Froggy

Ps.
I might have bet against the 11 too.

Yes it is Froggy.
Richie

Richie,

From your experience just what are the chances that the winner is going to be in the top two?

Froggy

The Bill Varone "Tick pad"
 

To be honest I couldn't tell you Froggy. Those records are long gone and it's been over a year since I stopped using it.

I can say that my most PROFITABLE tier on bl/bl using the software for YEARS was tier THREE.

I NEVER bet off models/corrolaries with any success. I used bl/bl and the e/l graph to find winning patterns as well as negative ones(especially good with favs). I value bet as others here have also described and did not look for the "best horse" Froggy.

Bill made these little pads we called "tick pads" and we used them for YEARS when we hooked up at the Meadowlands. It consisted of THREE things

1) Bl/bl rank
2) V/dc rank
3) E/l graph

we would hide to top 5 line score/tot energy and those 5 would be entered along with the above ifo on the tick pad for each race. It was a "sheet" for each race that when the race ended we just tossed away! Serious.

Bill had the idea for them and from such simplicity came VERY good results.
Richie

Richie,

Good Idea
I think I shall do something similar.
I can't seem to find any profitable parallel between winning and the corollaries

Thanks,

Froggy

How ironic. When I use the Validator series to handicap, these are the 3 screens I use to make my betting decisions. Keeps me from getting into information overload and paralysis from analysis:eek:

Jim

Tick pad
 

Wow Rich

I didn't think you would remember the Tick pad

Here is one from Yesterdays Oaks

The Early late graph
The BLBL
and The VDC readout

Kentucky Oaks
 

I also bet the race, however I approached it somewhat differently than many who posted.

As is my habit, I handicapped the race just before it went off; this precludes overhandicapping, vexing over pace lines, second guessing, and all the other pitfalls before us. More importantly, I do it this way because it fits me well - it may not be for you - at 68 yrs young I only have the energy to do it once, so I have to do it when counts!

After a quick visual run through, and yes I still use the form, I didn't come up with a probable winner, many looked capable; it's a GrI race and this is what you'll usually find. What jumped off the page was the filly that was going to be second. Now I can bet the race without an iron clad certainty of who was going to win. Just as good, I was sure of the 2nd place horse, or should I say, as sure as one can be in these undertakings. Tough to make a winning case for a filly with 5 2nd place finishes, now six. Not a hanger in the traditional sense, but what I call a "settler." Put a couple of bombers over her, added the favorite, and cashed a decent ticket.

No Tri's, no Sfx's; didn't have any special insight for these bets. Instead, I took what was there. On to the Derby.

Regards,
Chris

Oaks Derby Double NJ Acct Wagering
 

Guys... If you won the Oaks Derby Double 11-7, make sure that you received credit in your account... I looked this morning and it was not marked as a winner... I called it in and am awaiting a call back...