Using Projected Pace in RDSS
 

Rich:

I am asking this question of you in particular because from what I have seen on this site you base your handicapping on “The Matchup” concepts. But more specifically, as to the RDSS program, you have from what I have seen of your screen examples utilized the projected pace call times in the program. By the way I have just been given the opportunity by Ted to be one of the testers of the RDSS program. Since I just downloaded the program this morning I have some time to go to get aquatinted with the program windows and best maneuvering practices. Not to mention I have to read all of the material that Ted sent me along with the download.

There is one thing that I would appreciate your input on and that is how do I incorporate my expectations of the projected pace call times for a particular race. I am of course trying to use JB’s ideas in the area of projecting pace call times for a race.
 First how do I get the call times into the projected pace areas without getting and error message. I have up to now been double clicking on the particular lets say first call time of horse #1 in the pp section to get it into the box (then I get an error message but the time gets into the box) and then utilizing the drop down menu window to pick the exact first call time that I want to project.
 Ditto for 2nd call and projected final time.
Second once I have by way of error messages or not entered a projected pace call time for all pertinent call times how does that affect the analysis and computations of BLBL, Energy, TPR + E/L, Primary, Segments, etc. Is there a noticeable affect? I would have to assume that there must be. I am asking because I tried it with the first race for today at Belmont and could not pick up any difference in the BLBL output vs. what I had originally gotten during my Spec160 run of the race (at least as to the T5 horses). Admittedly perhaps I was not measuring closely because I am preparing to go to the track today and probably rushing through the review. If you could for now help me with getting the information into the projected pace area without error message that would be great. And if you do not mind, could you give me some input as to the availability with the RDSS program in this area and what I am trying to do with my own projected pace numbers. Generally I am thinking that I could run the program without any projected pace input and then run again with the projected pace numbers to see if there is a meaningful difference.

[Sorry for the winded message] Thanks,
M

Hi "Mu"

ok first off the projected pace HAS to be done from the "ORIGINAL" tab using
RAW times.

Later on things might open up to enable adjusted "projecting".

ok so the screenshot shows the tab that MUST be used to project

here is a race today from Woodbine. looking thru the field the 1 horse looks to be proj pacesetter at 1st call.

ok so by double clicking the 22.3 first call time of his last race that time should appear up on top in the first box

screenshot

moving thru the field looks like this 4 horse is proj leader at 2nd call. so again by double clicking the 45.4 2nd call time from last race that should now show up on top in the 2nd call box

screenshot

then the same steps are repeated for sc and final Mu. couple of things please

1) If you follow these steps you should NOT get error message of ANY kind. I use this exact method HUNDREDS of times a week ok? If you are still getting error stuff let Ted know.

2) the projecting of pace has NO effect on readouts of ANY kind relating to corrolaries,bl,bl etc. It is only a user guide to helping "set a race up" for
a) contender selection
b) paceline selection etc

There are some pretty cool things possible ahead after Ted gets the program a bit more mature.

Hope this helps a bit Mu
Richie

Not sure what you are trying to do regarding the first 2 sentences Mu.
Richie

Projected Pace
 

Thank you Rich
Your explanation helped my very much

I am seeing many need to leads that wont be on the lead
today, LOSE ! I could not see this before This along with the APV and CR
and The VAL 4 readouts make me very happy

GS
Bill

Rich:

I know the sentences were tied up in knots and excuse me since I was rushing myself. I was just thinking that I could first run the program without any special consideration to projected pace and then run again with projected pace numbers to see if there were any significant differences. I guess I was just trying to see if you agreed that it would make a difference on the analysis and consequent output. As you have already stated supplementing the projected pace numbers has no affect on the final readouts of BLBL, etc.

Thanks, you have taken care of my error message problem. I was trying to load the call time in the “Projected Pace” area from adjusted numbers. As you correctly state this for now can only be done via original call times. As “Admin” has stated in another post, the projected pace function is a very helpful tool (at least as of now) in more clearly (visually) pointing out how the early runners would most probably be positioned at the estimated particular call times. It is a very interesting tool and like you I intend to use it regularly.

I have just one more question for now and that has to do with the BLBL readouts. Next to the odds readout column I am seeing this VDC column. I am assuming that this is part of the Val4 readout that is incorporated in the RDSS program. Since I have never used Val4, and if I am correct, can someone explain what kind of output is most meaningful.

I have notice one problem with RDSS and that is that once the program has been minimized that you can not just left click on the mouse to reopen it but must instead right click the mouse and then select restore. This is a minor item and I am sorry if it has already been addressed.

Thanks,

M

Rich:

I have been thinking about this Projected Pace feature in the RDSS program and somehow I believe I got myself mixed up thinking that somehow it was able to produce outputs similar to what you get now with the “Longshot Detector” screen in Spec160. I guess I naively thought that the projected pace number would somehow replace the programs idea/computation of the dream race fractions with my input of fractions. Using the projected pace feature now is very helpful in pointing out the effects of estimated early pace positioning for the early types. I am thinking though that for good or not I could produce my own Longshot Detector results using the PP feature.

M

Robert,

V/DC is from Validator. It stands for Velocity relative to Deceleration and is a (highly) compound factor which essentially measures how much or little the horse was slowing down relative to how fast it was travelling during the segments of the race aggregated, massaged further by relative weighting of the Primary Factors. The rank that is shown is either the Primary Line Score (PLS) rank or the actual V/DC rank, whichever is better, which often leads to ties, meaning for example, despite being lower ranked on PLS if the underlying V/DC assessment ranked higher, that higher rank will be displayed in addition to another PLS rank which may be identical. If you find corrolary evidence from other observations to support this V/DC improvement, consider that that line may be better than its PLS rank indicates. ('Admin' has coined this V/DC rank improvement over PLS - 'Binder improvers' and I believe he has cashed some good tickets on these:))

I have received several recent reports on V/DC ranks of winners at different tracks and distances over many dozens of races. The top 2 and ties are winning over 70% of the time and finishing in the money approaching 85% (always depending on your contender/paceline selection).

Re the maximize of RDSS fromthe Desktop, this is a known bug (#2): please refer to the Bug List PDF document I sent you, or check here: www.ArtofPace.com/rdss/bugs/RDSS_Bug_List.pdf

Ted

Robert,

The identification of a Projected Pace does not change the Adjusted call times from which velocities and subsequent compound factors are derived. It is intended to colour code times set by likely pace-setters and indicate whether they will get enough competition from other Earlies to wear them out, or whether they can maintain their typically desired lead at the 1st and 2nd calls. Toegether with assigning Running Styles, and determined from the Original paceline screen, it helps see how the race will set up and helps identify how many Earlies there will be and who may survive and who the Other-than-Earlies are.

There are a few problems with this facility as it stands right now (Original pacelines are not all equal distance, can't modify or reset projected pace from the drop down menu), but there are some more ideas in the works, including moving this feature to work off the Adjusted screen instead of the Original screen.

Ted

Ted:

First I want to apologize for having provoked a discussion on the inner conceptual workings of the software or best practices in the wrong post area. Generally speaking it is important to know how things work at least conceptually so that they can be better applied. In this regard you have been more then accommodating as exampled in your two most recent posts on the projected pace RDSS factor.

As to the projected pace (PP) feature in RDSS, it is surely great in helping to depict the probable consequences or 1st or 2nd call positioning on a need to lead type’s best pace lines when faced with an individuals estimated early call times as entered in the PP section. The affects of early speed when using Jim B’s thinking on the subject is clearly portrayed with the PP as you describe. I know you have other great plans for this feature and I look forward to their introduction. Right now for what it is worth I am experimenting with the PP feature by establishing a calculated early time for lets say the “dream race” correctly now in the original area of the pp’s. Once I have established what I perceive to be the pace for today’s race (by using one of the early type running entries for the most part) I move over to the adjusted call time numbers for the same entry and particular call time and readjust my original PP entry for the call times to now meet the adjusted numbers (call times). Wow that was hard to get out. I hope I am making sense. That is I want to at least for now in this experimentation work with adjusted numbers. Now only using adjusted call times for all entries I pick only good form pace lines in which the horse has run a good form race that is within 2/5’s of the estimated adjusted pace call time utilized in the PP section. It is somewhat like the Fulcrum idea of analyzing a race and if found to be useful I am thinking that I can print out my preferred results with these particular pace lines as given lets say in Perceptor output, etc. In this way I am hoping that I protect myself from too much emphasis on a front runner that may be scratched. That is my Fulcrum spin on things or why I am thinking this way. I am sorry but just thinking out loud and perhaps naively tinkering with my new toy.

Robert

robert what you have said here is very similar to what i am doing and i am very pleased with the results.

using only adjusted times from trackmaster download. in my opinion as good a "number" as any out there. then working contender and paceline selection around a reasonably expected pace today.

when working race in this manner the vdc readout is the dominating readout with primary line score (in speculator the same read is perceptor1) second most predictive.

i am a bit more particular in the races i wager on as i need to feel there is a bias early or late that the winner should come from. then i simply bet the two best of that style. i started off a month ago with a $ 4.00 a race base bet. it has been growing steadily robert.

last night i played mnr and found two playable races for me on the whole card. as you see my bet size has increased using this method to a respectable level.

i wish you much success.
F.B.

F.B.

Thanks much for your offer of good success. It is good to know that I am not necessarily wasting my time in my endeavor to utilize the projected pace feature in RDSS in the way that I have described. I hope the idea of exchanging thoughts or ideas on the using of these great Sartin based tools continues to catch on, or perhaps it has happen before but now it is time to generate new life into this type of reflection.

Continued good success to you,

Robert

Ted:

I have come across a way to clear the projected pace call time windows. I know it is not exactly what you would want to be the end product as to a solution but perhaps it will give you some ideas. When I want to clear the projected pace windows I go to the entries window and then put my mouse arrow on the projected pace area with a click on the right button I choose delete. By doing this it clears the entire area and then I just click on add and it comes back without any of my previous entered call times.

As to just changing any projected call time I find an entry that has the particular call time that I want and I enter it overriding any input for call time already there. As stated in a previous post since I want to use adjusted call times. So I move over to the adjusted time area to see what the particular call time that I am working for shows on the particular horse that I am using for analysis and then correct my pace call time to match the adjusted time via the drop down windows. If the time that I am looking for is not there because the drop down menu does not go far enough in time I just find another entry with the call time that I am looking for or close enough to it to be able to make the final correction to meet adjusted time.

The above solutions are just make-do efforts at working in the projected pace area and not necessarily I am sure that you would agree the final or even recommended solution.

Robert

I'm using XP and all I have to do is right click, I don't even have to scroll to or click on Maximize, it snaps back up on screen immediately.

Charles,

If you really mean right-click and not left-click to maximize Taskbar items, that would be pretty non-standard behaviour for all Windows environments. Normally, it is left-click once to Maximize. You're saying right-click once to Maximize?

Ted

For example...
 

I was just reading your inquiry Ted. I then hovered my cursor over the icon for RDSS at the bottom of the screen. I right-clicked and the menu window (with "Restore" "Minimize" and "Close") appears, but the RDSS program screen snaps opens before I have the chance to make a selection from the menu window.

Maybe this is something that I set in Tweak UI (or a similar program offering Windows tweaks) so long ago that I don't recall doing so. As I write this, I just tried left clicking on all of my open programs, and they all, including RDSS, opened immediately. Yet several times previously such was not the case with RDSS.

I'm as confused as can be about that now.