Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   PHA 8th -- Monday, June 11 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2467)

alydar_ David 06-11-2007 09:49 AM

PHA 8th -- Monday, June 11
 
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I blew the dust off Syn4 for laughs. It should be okay for this race, even with old pars, as all the pacelines I used but one (the DEL shipper) are from PHA.

Note, I'll bet Ted would have used another shipper paceline for a contender I used a 6F line on, but I prefer to keep the pacelines from the same track, if possible. That's just me. Doesn't mean it's correct to do so.

I'm not sure what Binder would do, but I'm curious :::wink wink::: nudge nudge::: :>)

Also, with Syn4 I don't bother to separate contenders; I stick them all in and let them program sort them out. You can't do that with Syn2 and get good results, but it's never seemed to bother Syn4.

alydar_ David 06-11-2007 09:53 AM

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If they all run, it looks like there's some exotic value here.

I'd opt for a three horse exacta box: 8-9-7.
And I'd use the best counter running style in the tri: 8-9-7-6

admin 06-11-2007 06:16 PM

race 8
 
Hello David

I'm sorry, I just was too busy today
I'm mad because I saw your post and wanted to work the race
but I just never could find a few minutes

If you don't mind I will do the race now I have not looked at the
results so if any horses are scratch I;m sorry

Here are my apv-cr
Code:

1. 58.2%      1.66
2. 168.5%    1.72
3. 91.5%      1.01
4. 98.0%      2.21
5. 127.0%    1.45
6. 144.4%    2.13
7.  53.5%    1.62
8.  51.5%    0.77
9. 94.5%    2.18

now I will pick lines

admin 06-11-2007 06:27 PM

Horse
 
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Horse 1
poor apv maiden winner I will use the last line

admin 06-11-2007 06:28 PM

Horse
 
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Horse 2 good APV -CR

admin 06-11-2007 06:29 PM

Horse
 
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Horse 3 mid ratings in apv-CR

admin 06-11-2007 06:30 PM

Horse
 
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Horse 4 good apv top CR

admin 06-11-2007 06:31 PM

Horse
 
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Horse 5 good apv-cr

admin 06-11-2007 06:32 PM

Horse
 
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Horse 6
Top rated

admin 06-11-2007 06:35 PM

Horse
 
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Low apv ok Class
the last line 81 Speed rating is good but basic Doc says over 7.5 is a nono
I will go to line 2 the high 70's speed ratings are consistant
fast

admin 06-11-2007 06:36 PM

Horse
 
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Horse 8 low apv and CR maiden winner
last line only

admin 06-11-2007 06:38 PM

Horse
 
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horse 9
good apv and high CR

admin 06-11-2007 06:40 PM

hide screen
 
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Here are all 9
the first to go since they are over 5 Total energy and PLS
are the 5 and 6

admin 06-11-2007 06:42 PM

more hides
 
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out goes the 2

admin 06-11-2007 06:46 PM

no more hides
 
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All the rest are at least 5 Total energy and PLS
I need to get to 5 horses to base my corralaries
I can either use VDC or APV-CR
things look bad for the 8 ao both these factors

admin 06-11-2007 06:50 PM

3 or 8
 
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It could take out either the 3 or the 8
I took out the 8 because of the bac APV and CR and the 4 VDC
at all the 3 has is early speed so I will note that in my mind

admin 06-11-2007 06:51 PM

Now here
 
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This is the top 5 VDC

admin 06-11-2007 06:57 PM

Blbl
 
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Here is the BLBL

The seven is clearly the fastest. The long layoff
of the 9, the 3 is only early My bets are 7 and 4
the 1 is the next choice but 74 is about all i can see for it

GS
Bill

alydar_ David 06-11-2007 07:21 PM

Once again we see an excellent step-by-step analysis by Bill.

Here's the result:

8th race - Philadelphia Park - June 11, 2007

Off at: 3:32 Race Type: Allowance
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward
Value of Race: $33,600
Distance: One Mile And Seventy Yards
Surface Type: Dirt Track Condition: Fast
Winning Time: 1:42.24

Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
7 Clickitorticket Eriluis Vaz 9.00 4.20 3.20
5 Call You Raise You Carol Cedeno 7.60 4.00
2 Sunshine Bo Joanne McDaid 11.80
Also ran: 6 - Major Malibu , 8 - Starvin Marvin , 4 - Done That , 3 - Alvan Was Great , 1 - Secret Time , 9 - Money Numbers

Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff

$2 Pick 3 4-1-7 (3 correct) 276.60
$2 Exacta 7-5 67.40
$2 Trifecta 7-5-2 779.20
Winning Breeder: F. E. Dixon Jr.
Winning Owner: Erdenheim Farm
Winning Trainer: Richard J. Hendriks

admin 06-12-2007 06:07 AM

nice
 
Thank you David

I hope i was clear enough
thanks for asking and I am about to open my
keeneland package
Being a bacholer and always on the road
things tend to pile up in my mailbox
at my apt maybe I should get a p.o.box
Thank you inadvance
GS today and always

Bill


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