mountaineer tuesday race 8
 

here is race 8 tonight at mountaineer. interesting because i am not sure if the race goes early or the opposite way.

i normally pass these kinds now but this race is different because contender and more important line selection just seems easy win or lose.

so i decided to enter my contenders/pacelines into energy! and see what happens. another learning experience but this time i will wager which is why the thread is put here.

first here is the energy generator screen

here is the paragon screen.

win energy according to variegate is being shown as sustained.

here is the corrolary and muv screen. what i notice is a very tight grouping on muv read.
interesting to say the least

finally the exdc screen which is proving very powerful.

with the variation or shading of the race sustained i will go with the late exdc top 2 choices for win bets.

my win bets are the 3 and 9.

I really like this race and will build a case for a longshot using HOS.

Here are two screens on one capture. The top is the prime calculations screens which takes all non-paceline stuff into account.

You will notice that the #1 benefits from the race conditions of NW 6 mos, which is a favorite of mine at MNR and returns many luxury benefits if you follow carefully. He has the highest PSR (projected speed rating), but has been off the track for 241 days. These types win their fair share at MNR, but near even money, its a play against for me.

Lets focus on early speed.

Here is the running style breakdown.

E = 1 horse
EP - 2 horses
P - 1 horse
PS - 2 horses
S or SS - 5 horses

Just from the running style designation, we can see that there's only one pure early runner in the race and 3 horses that may be early as well or press the pace. One thing is certain at this level at MNR, is that horses don't always run their style depending on form.

more screens to follow

On the Sartin screens you will see that the 1 again dominates. Lets pay a bit of attention to the 7 and notice that his line score is ranked 3rd against the field. I build up to more about him in a minute.

Our energy distribution graph it is typical for a MNR race at this level and distance. We'll compare that to our model on the next set of screens.

This is a sampling of 300+ tracks at MNR 5.5f D. This charts the e/l range for pacelines used to represent winners.

As you see here, the meaty part of the curve are horses that show between 0 - +20 on the e/l curve. Anything outside of that starts to get tricky, especially a horse that is below 0.

Since we're going to use a horse that falls under there, we need to have a reason. Of course, I'm building up to that.

Our model screen, which is compared to 301 races at 5.5f dirt from MNR, suggests the #1 as the strongest play for both the Win Strength line (most likey to win) and the mutuel strength line (value line). Nothing against the #1 and his layoff, we're on our way to a value play that may be our lone speed in this race.

More...

We'll notice here that win strength at this track/distance/surface is quite effective. The #1 rated win strength horse wins 32.5% of the time for a flat bet mutual of $2.30 on $2.

Mutuel strength, which is designed to promote more ROI and less winners, is actually less effective. The #1 rated horse wins 24% of the time, for $1.68 on $2.

This is probably the worst distance and surface for HOS at MNR which performs real well on the value line.

more..

despite the last two efforts you will notice a few things about the past performances for my selection #7 Joe the Legend.

1) Notice the race note for the June 24th race, which was 8 days ago. It was a much harder condition, nw3 in one year. I remarked that it was a key race, as the field was very good. Upon reflection of the race, I noticed that there was an abundance of presser/stalker types that were in form and were very good that kept the lone E honest. I don't feel that tonights race has the same kind of attributes.

2) The jockey change from Osvaldo Vargas (an 8% joc) to Huber Villa-Gomez (a 17% winner) makes one ponder whether Charlie Walker is has his horse sitting on a good race and both the jockey and trainer recognize this together.

3) The horse has some back class. Against tougher fields, in form, he has wired. His strong early pace in his last race may suggest that he's starting to round into form, and against a lesser field, he may find his spot.

With the lack of early speed, the dominant public favorite who is coming off a long layoff, and a hopefully underbet back-class horse, I hope to produce a mutuel of at least 10-1, although I think the 20-1 morning line is graciously over inflated.

If anyone wants the complete past performances for this race, please email me at rich@handicappingos.com

I have some reservations about this race.

1) The #1 horse has a 4.0 advantage in CPR which seems to work out to about 8 lengths at the finish line with any kind of recent racing of which he doesn't have.
I find this hard to bet for or against.

2) I think the #1 is going to be the lone early and if the #7 trys to run with him the fractions maybe too much and the #7 may be doomed.

Here is the lone early

The top CPR

Rich,
For a value bet you might be right, if the #7 runs back to 4th line down.

The problem with the #7 is that he doesn't fall within the % med envelope

well the value play here is to expect that the #7 gets a clear lead because the #1 is not fresh. As I mentioned, the 7's last race was against a much tougher condition and field, and was only 8 days ago. With the attraction of the better jockey and the lack of speed in the field I'm willing to stake a wager that the 7 can run the type of race he did 4 back. Hopefully.

Here are the latest Energy figures

pace turned out to be quick, #7 backed up early. #1 was the real threat and won by a nostril over the #6

That's why they race them.

I couldn't help myself.

The #1 was 7/2 so I bet him as a single bet, win and place.
He had the highest total energy and was one of only two that fit the energy profile.
He won by a nostril and paid $6.20..$4.00..$3.00
I thought he was going to loose going down the backside and then again in the stretch.

Froggy