Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   Tpr vs Bl/Bl (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3040)

RichieP 10-28-2007 10:45 AM

Tpr vs Bl/Bl
 
Would any users who worked the Breeder's Cup races be willing to run a comparison between Tpr and Bl/Bl winners in top 3?

admin 10-28-2007 12:19 PM

Tpr
 
Hi Rich

I only worked 3 races but maybe i can help you out with these


The races I worked were friday #10
and Saturday the turf and the classic
Code:

This is Friday race 10
BLBL    TPR
1        1       
3        3
6        6
8        5
5        8

the winner was # 8 so blbl did a little better


This is the turf

BLBL          TPR
English      English
Red          Red
Better      Better
Grand        Grand
Shamd      Sham

No differance with my lines
English is the winner

The Classic

BLBL        TPR
Lawyer      Lawyer
Diamond    Diamond
AnyGiv      AnyGiv
Awsome    Curlin
Curlin        Awsome

Curlin does better on TPR

Hope this helps you
Rich

Turbulator 10-28-2007 02:42 PM

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Funny you should ask. I was looking at the same thing. There were virtually no differences (some in the lower tiers) for the dirt races. The biggest differences were in the turf races.

Races 1&2.

Turbulator 10-28-2007 02:43 PM

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Races 3&6. I didn't do 4&5, the two-year-old races.

Turbulator 10-28-2007 02:45 PM

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Races 7&8.

Turbulator 10-28-2007 02:48 PM

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Races 9&10.

Turbulator 10-28-2007 02:49 PM

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Race 11.

Turbulator 10-28-2007 02:55 PM

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For some reason race # 1 came out backwards. This is right.

RichieP 10-28-2007 03:28 PM

Bill and Steve,
Thank you. I really appreciate the feedback man. Here is a little something for you :)
http://youtube.com/watch?v=tsFKbKk22SU
Richie

Bill Lyster 10-28-2007 07:16 PM

Richie:

Seeing some of the other results I included a bit more info and I think its of interest.

Dist BL Ep-Lp-TPR(Rank)
6f 2 1-4-2
6f 1 2-2-1
8d 3 5-1-5
8.5d 4 1-5-4
8.5d 5 1-5-1
9d 1 3-1-1
10d 2 3-4-3
8t 3 1-4-1
8t 3 4-2-3
11t 1 4-2-1
12t 3 4-1-4

Selection notes: I capped all dirt lines using matchup and turf races by computer alone. Any top five energy horse with a 1 rank anywhere in the TPR array was very dangerous 9/11 won. Only the turf mile and classic winners failed this test. Also within the context of the running styles and the lines and other contenders picked, a 1 rank, even if it appeared to violate visual running style, was still to be respected.

bill

Bill Lyster 10-28-2007 07:17 PM

Richie:

Seeing some of the other results I included a bit more info and I think its of interest.

Dist BL Ep-Lp-TPR(Rank)
6f 2 1-4-2
6f 1 2-2-1
8d 3 5-1-5
8.5d 4 1-5-4
8.5d 5 1-5-1
9d 1 3-1-1
10d 2 3-4-3
8t 3 1-4-1
8t 3 4-2-3
11t 1 4-2-1
12t 3 4-1-4

Selection notes: I capped all dirt lines using matchup and turf races by computer alone. Any top five energy horse with a 1 rank anywhere in the TPR array was very dangerous 9/11 won. Only the turf mile and classic winners failed this test. Also within the context of the running styles and the lines and other contenders picked, a 1 rank, even if it appeared to violate visual running style, was still to be respected.

bill

lonestarracefan 10-28-2007 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulator (Post 25035)
Races 3&6. I didn't do 4&5, the two-year-old races.


Wait a While was scratched

Turbulator 10-28-2007 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster (Post 25057)
Any top five energy horse with a 1 rank anywhere in the TPR array was very dangerous 9/11 won. Only the turf mile and classic winners failed this test.

Could you explain what you mean by this? Maybe you could use Race 1 as an example?

Thanks.

lonestarracefan 10-28-2007 09:59 PM

Kip Deville crushed a field in 3 yr olds in Stakes @ Lone Star Park April of 2006 on a yielding course that PP's that we download from Trackmaster dropped.

After that he was bought by his current owners for six figures after that race.

Think it was luck & the poor track conditions that kept the Euros out of the winners circle yesterday

Bill Lyster 10-29-2007 01:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster (Post 25059)
Richie:

Seeing some of the other results I included a bit more info and I think its of interest.

Dist BL Ep-Lp-TPR(Rank)
6f 2 1-4-2
6f 1 2-2-1
8d 3 5-1-5
8.5d 4 1-5-4
8.5d 5 1-5-1
9d 1 3-1-1
10d 2 3-4-3
8t 3 1-4-1
8t 3 4-2-3
11t 1 4-2-1
12t 3 4-1-4

Selection notes: I capped all dirt lines using matchup and turf races by computer alone. Any top five energy horse with a 1 rank anywhere in the TPR array was very dangerous 9/11 won. Only the turf mile and classic winners failed this test. Also within the context of the running styles and the lines and other contenders picked, a 1 rank, even if it appeared to violate visual running style, was still to be respected.

bill

Okay, I eliminated the contenders, getting down to only the top five "Total Energy" horses. All the rest of the information relates to how those horses ranked in either the BL/BL screen of Spec 160 or the component parts of the TPR + E/L screen, early (Epr), late (Lpr) or the total CPR readouts.

In The first six furlong race the winner was #2 Bl/Bl; it was #1 rated Ep, #4 rated Lp and overall was #2 TPL horse of the five I had left in the computer.

Note that the two 8.5F races were 2YO routes as was the first 8f turf race. I don't think it is an aberration that 2YO races are won by the predominant early horses as the majority of these young horses have not learned to reserve their energy for later runs that are required of most older horses in top company. The winner of all 2 YO BC races was #1 Epr. Sorry, I'm getting off topic.

Happy to answer any other questions you have.

Bill

Turbulator 10-29-2007 02:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster (Post 25065)
Okay, I eliminated the contenders, getting down to only the top five "Total Energy" horses.

Umm, do you mean non-contenders?

Also, I'm unclear which race you are referring to exactly. (I think you're referring to Oct. 26, race 8)

Thanks.

Bill Lyster 10-29-2007 02:15 AM

Steve:
The first 6f race was the Friday Race, Filly Sprint; the 2nd 6F the BC Sprint.

Bill

RichieP 10-29-2007 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster (Post 25057)
Richie:

Seeing some of the other results I included a bit more info and I think its of interest.

Dist BL Ep-Lp-TPR(Rank)
6f 2 1-4-2
6f 1 2-2-1
8d 3 5-1-5
8.5d 4 1-5-4
8.5d 5 1-5-1
9d 1 3-1-1
10d 2 3-4-3
8t 3 1-4-1
8t 3 4-2-3
11t 1 4-2-1
12t 3 4-1-4

Selection notes: I capped all dirt lines using matchup and turf races by computer alone. Any top five energy horse with a 1 rank anywhere in the TPR array was very dangerous 9/11 won. Only the turf mile and classic winners failed this test. Also within the context of the running styles and the lines and other contenders picked, a 1 rank, even if it appeared to violate visual running style, was still to be respected.

bill

Extremely good info Bill! Thank you for taking the time to share it man.
Nice work
Richie

admin 10-30-2007 04:58 AM

Bi
 
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Hi Rich
This is a Binder improver race
the #1 won
here are the BLBL and TPR/total energy readouts

RichieP 10-30-2007 12:01 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by admin (Post 25075)
Hi Rich
This is a Binder improver race
the #1 won
here are the BLBL and TPR/total energy readouts

Excellent Bill.
Remember the "sticks"?

There was a massive late energy bias last night at Mnr. Held the whole card. If we deduce this and recognize by the 5th race u show your "improver" #1 is obvious win energy. Now take a look at the "sticks" on opposite side. There is the exacta bud! :)

Thank you for the Tpr/Blbl feedback.

Turbulator 10-30-2007 03:00 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by admin (Post 25075)
Hi Rich
This is a Binder improver race
the #1 won
here are the BLBL and TPR/total energy readouts

I got the same horses, but no Binder improver. I'm using Speculator mode so that's probably why.

I switched to Validator mode to check it out and it did come up the same as yours.

admin 10-30-2007 05:09 PM

Validator
 
Thats cool the spec mode is so different
I waited so long,, I loved validator 2 and 3. It fits me.
I feel like i can do races with Doc with RDSS
in Validator mode I appreciate that Ted made RDSS available in two modes. I have been getting great reports from some people in both modes And that is great news for the methodology and for folks looking to be winners I am very happy that Validtor and Spec live on :D

GS
Bill

RichieP 10-30-2007 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP (Post 25077)
There was a massive late energy bias last night at Mnr. Held the whole card.

Anyone follow up on this going into tonights card? work race 1 then look at readouts then look at results man ;)

admin 10-31-2007 06:34 PM

wow at 5.0
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP (Post 25080)
Anyone follow up on this going into tonights card? work race 1 then look at readouts then look at results man ;)


Thanks Rich

wow I'm sorry I missed that one

can't miss the winner here if i look late


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