Tpr Numbers
 

Listening to Hambleton talking about TPR on the Las Vegas Seminar Tape[Bill thanks for putting it up and CFunk thanks for making a copy so I can listen in my car].He is talking about how the DRF variants are good and how they are used to adjust the TPR.If that's the case what effect does it have if your putting in a 0 or use the Beyer number?Jeff

Jeff,

I know you have an interest in the TPR numbers.
You may find or have already found that these numbers
are not a stand alone factor to determine the winner of a given race.
I think it has it's merits in certain situations and for the most part there is only one program where you can
query this on a given track. None of the Sartin Programs as we know them have this capability.
In my humble opinion the best piece of software that can do this and is probably the most effective is JCapper which is expensive and not easy to learn. This program is not for everyone. I did the demo and I can say without any hesitation this is the best program on the market. In fact I would go further then that, It's by far and away a brilliant piece of work.
Unfortunately, it's unaffordable to me at the present time but probably well worth the price.
Be aware that this program has a large learning curve and is not for everyone. However, the author offers podcasts and help docs to get you started.
The beauty of this program is that it allows you literally to test all different situations both positive and negative and allows you to employ these situations into a workable handicapping method.

Not to take away from the really good Sartin-based programs, but I fully agree with the above statement regarding JCapper.

Jim

I take it you must be talking about Synergism users. I have no idea how Purdy adjusted the Beyer ratings, though there is a long discussion in Beyer On Speed on extracting the variant from a Beyer figure. At that point, you would have a variant on the Beyer scale, and would have to convert it to DRF terms. That's not all that hard to do, but in Beyer numbers you have vauiable points at different distances instead of the old DRF/TPR fifth of a second per point. Its not all that difficult. but requires either a computer program or a bunch of charts and fast fingers on a pocket calculator.

I also have no idea where Purdy built in the variant break in Synergism. Is no variant adjustment a 0 or a 17? If you are talking about using the numbers raw, with no variant, you simply have numbers that are listed in the book, without the adjustments for variants. I always found the raw numbers to work very well, within the obvious limits, just like the matchup.


Dick..

I wasn't aware that Jeff used the TPR numbers in JCapper.

Dick...

Dick,

I know Jeff has a rating called TP in the program. It is a solid pace number for sure but whether it is calculated in the same manner as in Sartin-based programs, I have no idea.

Jim

Jim G,
I have a question: are you presently using JCapper?
Pino

Pino,

Yes I have been for about 3 years now.

Jim

Parts,Im not so sure that if you are keeping a good model that these numbers cant be used as stand alone.Jeff

I didnt realize there would be such a difference putting in 0 for a variant or 19[actual]

ok good you are doing this to see for yourself. Now run a race using 19 var for all the horses. then take a screenshot of the ratings Jeff. Then redo the race giving everyone a 0 variant.

Now look at those ratings and then look at the other screenshot(with the 19 v).
Do the relationships(rankings) change? Or are you seeing the same rankings just with much different numbers?

You have now answered your own questions big bro and no matter what anyone tells you the work on your part is already done and the answer is within YOU.
Richie

Jcapper or Rdds?
 

I know what RDDS will cost when available, but what is this Jcapper program, and where is there info on it?

bobp

Jcapper is quite refined and it bears a $700 price tag the last I read. Which is all relative in relationship quality and what other products are selling for. In the case of $100 per year versus $700 one time many things you would consider, for me it is the data provider where Trackmaster is not the prefered vendor on a per file basis. Against the $120 per month data providers it wins hands down no bs involved, on that note its really who you are and how it fits your style, to me I am just a per file guy who is not going to consider $120 per month for data period, with that who does the best against the $120 number is the bargain in my books.

jcapper
 

thanks for the info.

bobp

Jeff,

From what I know, you are selective in the type races and the tracks that you play, which is all good and well.

If you were to query these type races at WOX with a program that could do this, you would find that the top (first 3) "TPR" numbers would have a negative ROI. I believe the 4th rating is positive and with that you won't get rich because it is minimal and not worth the effort.
Overall and in all type races this definitely holds true.

The cost of $700 is well justified if you play on a daily basis. The money you will save on data files ( $ 1.00 BRIS files and $ 0.25 XRD files) as opposed to
The newly proposed Trackmaster files and the yearly cost of a lease program. If you are a casual player the cost of the Trackmaster files will be more costly. Figure out what your costs would be over a year or two and convince yourself which is more prudent. Always taking into consideration as to which software is more flexible, accurate and has more overall utility for your individual purposes.

From what I've read while doing the demo and using the "help docs". Total Pace was derived from TPR. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Richie,I did the 4th race from Penn as you suggested 1st set with 0 variant and next set with DRF variant

I forgot the 4 in the 1st but wont make a difference.Rankings are the same but with 0 variant 6 is stronger play on TPR.

RESULTS

6-10.60
7
2

EX 42.80
TRI-153.00

Dont ask I didnt play the race

Who pays $1 per file, even I misrepresent the facts, I only pay 80 cents per file and the PDF files (pp's) are free for the tracks I bet with Bris.

Nice to see the good folks here at P & C posting this Thanksgiving morning!

Richie,I was also going to do it with 17 as variant and then plus or minus but I forgot which way is which.If a horse has a 21 would that be plus 4 or minus 13.Jeff

Jeff,
Ok things are definitely different from rankings to R/S on some of the horses.

This appears to be telling us that THIS program is VERY sensitive to what is being given it regarding pace line variants.

So looking at the program you have 3 choices if I am correct:
1) DRF variant - where you simply enter the variant as shown in Drf(Bris single file)

2) Beyer variant - where you enter the beyer number for the paceline and adjustments come from that and t-t

3) Projected variant - where t-t are figured but the program ignores any variant you enter and makes it's own from the race match up.

Purdy has a bitch of a program here (meant as a compliment fwiw). Hat and Bob Cochran told me NOBODY in Pirco bet more money than Bob and he used his stuff. Gotta respect

Good work Jeff

Hi Jeff

From the pace launcher manual

(first check point I can across)

Quite simply, The auto adjust ignores horses coming from
DRF daily variants of 16,17,and 18 and ADDS 1/2 point to
a horse rating for every DRF daily variant point over 18
and subtracts one half point for DV's under 16

so maybe for you a 21 would be to add + 2 ?

jim
partsnut

I have no idea whether Jeff's TP rating is derived from the TPR ranking or not. It doesn't really matter, because the TPR number itself tells you nothing about pace. The EPR and FFR are pace numbers. The TPR is a combination of the two and is in effect a speed rating that has nothing to do with pace.

A TPR of 180 can be achieved by a combination of EPR90+FFR90, EPR95+FFR85, EPR85+FFR95 or any number of other combinations. The EPR and FFR are the pace components of the ranking. The TPR by itself is a speed rating or total energy rating and tells you nothing about whether the horse used that energy early, balanced or late.


Dick...

Richie,Appreciate your input so I guess the next step is which way is best.I guess I will stick with the DRF variant.Jeff

Dick,
Agree totally that TPR is a speed rating of sorts. I do use it as one of my main factors. Mostly to try and figure out how much "gas" each horse has in it's "tank".
I look at EPR of each horse and try to figure a "comfort" zone for each horse.
Next, try to predict a viable EPR for todays race.
Then I compare this to each horses comfort zone and start adjusting TPRs.
In the comfort zone, 1 for 1 adjustment...TPR stays pretty much the same.
Upper end or above the zone, 2 - 1 downward adjustment effectivley decreasing LP and TPR.
Then I rank em, look at form and pull the pin. HeeeHawww.
Just part of my style.....
Cecil

Bill,Thanks.

Grahors,Can you elaborate more if you do mind on how you go about projecting the EPR?Shoeless

Shoe,
Simple explanation (need to run some last minute errands before people arrive).....
I look at E and EP runners with 5 or more Quirrin spd pts. "Good" races, basic surface and distance, last 3 or 4 races. I look for the "best" EPR of these and that is my target figure. I try not to look at any races with any stretch loss.
Gotta run.....HAPPY THANKSGIVING....I will keep checking in and post more later.
Cecil

thanks for sharing,good to get alternative ideas.Shoeless

UH OH this is from Bob Purdy



If you have a source for a good Projected Variant, that would be my first choice. In the absence of that, the Beyer number would be next and DRF variant last.

Happy Thanksgiving,

Bob

Bob,Doesnt the program calculate the projected variant based on the dream race.Happy Thanksgiving as well.Jeff I got that from Richie's post.






Jeff,

You know I forgot about that. It is calculated by the program. In that case, I would use the Beyer as #1, Projected as #2 and the DRF last.

Bob

In my haste, I forgot to mention........
When I compare for my adjustments, I compare my target to the "Pace of the Race" the horse ran against, Not the pace of the horse itself.
Kinda my adjusted version of the MU.

THIS IS NOT AN ADVERTISEMENT BY BOB ABOUT SYN 6 I ASKED HIM WHAT ADJUSTMENTS IT USES




Jeff,

I don't have a source for buying projected variants. It is possible with all the automation these days that there just isn't a market for them anymore.

Synergism VI uses a propriatery adjustment process that incorporates a projected variant as one of the elements of the adjustments. No one else on the planet uses such a sophisticated process of adjusting for speed, distance, surface and track. It isn't perfect (nothing is) but it is far superior to any other process.

Bob

Grahors,Thanks again.Jeff

I would be willing to help test this as long as the test is short. I am using Syn6 and think it is excellent for win betting. You don't even have to send the lasagna. I would settle for the recipe!

Maybe we could do something where we look at the same races and post some win bets ahead of the race. It's really hard to do a test like this, but it would be interesting...

Sounds like a good idea.Jeff

Tremendous NW!

Maybe Jeff could pick a track and you both could get together on line selection/contenders/readouts etc. What do you think about 4-5 cards as a sample? Don't want to take you away for your game man. Heck if it's ok for me to join in with RDSS I'd love to.

I say that based on Tpr and Ap reads Syn4 is at least equal to Syn 6.

Hey regardless of outcome I will send you the recipe NW ;) Think you will like it.

Although my mouth is watering for both lasagne and turkey by now:) - getting back to a comparison between variants of HDW (via Syn6) and DRF/Beyer or perhaps TrackMaster's (via Val/Spec/RDSS) - I too would be quite interested in anything that might highlight differences, similarities, relative merits, etc

I've heard from lots of folks how HDW's variants (i.e. Daily Track Variants and Inter Track variants) are the best there is and how TrackMaster/Equibase's are inferior. But I suspect that is largely anecdotal (or else marketing). Maybe HDW is superior, and 4 or 5 cards worth won't really prove one way or t'other, but it would be fascinating as an adhoc experiment to observe the differences.

As for Val/Spec/RDSS, I'm not sure I'd stick just to the TPR screens, but at least (in RDSS) that screen could provide a common ground with Syn4/6. If someone wants to pick some cards, I too would like to follow along (and chip in as much as I can).

What would be an objective, comparative measuring stick: ranking of final contenders? Pre-selected win bets? If the latter, that sort of gets away from a comparative readouts examination and into the realm of wager selection. And differences in variants, what to speak of other methods of paceline selection, will likely result in many differing line selections and thus final contender differences. Not that that should stop us from giving it a go! If done before the fact, it could give folks some interesting racing to chew on as the nights get colder...

Ted

Hey Guys how about Philly?If that's not acceptable you all can pick one Im just trying to get the ball rolling.That's fine if you want to add RDSS or any other software for that matter[probably though we want ones that have TPR numbers unless you all want to see how other software would do.].I guess we would all have to use the same pacelines in order to compare.Whatever track we decide each person could take a race and they would decide on the pacelines to choose.Jeff