The "Mind's Eye" - Part 2
 

Here is our next race.

Stay with me and participate in the order of the steps please.


This will begin to all make more sense in a few weeks. You are in the "Hat Zone" now and YOUR "Mind's Eye" is beginning it's training.


Step 1:
Starting with the first horse and taking no more than 5 seconds POST the running style of each horse as described in the first post here. If and when you come upon a horse designate as EARLY by you POST the 1st fraction time when he WINS or finishes VERY close to the winner.

Step 2:
After you get to the last horse using ONLY what you have done in Step 1 POST your FIRST gut feeling how the race will be won. Take NO more than 5-10 seconds to make the "call".

Use these designations ONLY please
1) Early
2) Press
3) Sustained

Again please do NO handicapping to make this "call" other than what you did in STEP 1.


Please POST your step 1 and step 2 calls ONLY. Nothing else for now. Then after everyone gets in here we move on.


Here are the horses. The past performances shown are in the traditional 5ths of a second and mirror the Racing Form ok?

The field

balance of the field

Step 1:

1-Paris S
2-Oh J S
3-Western S
4-Copelan's S
5-Betsy S
6-Cool S
7-Restless E 22.1
8-Miss P S

Step 2:

Since the 7-Restless appears to be a lone early, he will grab the lead and wire the field. I have not looked at any of the fractions the sustained horses have been successful against.

Real time live video
 

Hi Rich and Jim

I did the first steps live on Video
I figured maybe you could help me
and some other by hearing my thoughts
as i worked the race

Thanks Bill

http://www.paceandcap.com/videos/muracevid.wmv


Horse 1 SUS
Horse 2 NF
Horse 3 Pre
Horse 4 Pre
Horse 5 NF
Horse 6 Sus
Horse 7 E 22.1
Horse 8 Pre

shrink1
 

Richie,
Here goes
1 Presser
2 Sustained
3 Presser
4 Presser
5 Sustained
6 Presser
7 Early 21.3
8 sustained
looks like the race shapes up to be lone early since no one in the race can keep up with the 21.3 or even the 22. in the 7's last race.
Ira

Mine's eye 2
 

1)S
2)S
3)S
4)P 22.2
5)P
6)S
7)E 22.1, 21.3
8)S

Race goes Early:)

First Inpressions - 5 Second Quickie Mode

1-S
2-S
3-P
4-S
5-P
6-S
7-E Use 22.1 shows up on more then 1 line
8-P

Lone Early but worrisome tandem in race.

1 s
2 s
3 s
4 p
5 p
6 s
7 E 21.3 44.4
8 p


Race sets up to be EARLY

emilio

Steps 1 & 2
 

#1 Pre
#2 Sus
#3 Sus
#4 Sus
#5 Pre
#6 Sus
#7 Ear 22.1
#8 Sus

Initial impression is the race will run Early.

Love watching what you did and your reaction when you got to the #7! Lmao

Very very nice work and already your "Mind's Eye" as well as that of everyone else participating is beginning to see things and give you feedback QUICKLY.

That's what all this is about.

1) Intuition
2) Pattern Recognition
3) Trusting and ACTING on our FIRST impressions of a race/horse

More folks are gonna chime in so let me stop here.
Richie

1 - S
2 - S
3 - S
4 - P
5 - S
6 - S
7 - E 22.1
8 - P

Race running early

I also liked the admin's video. The analysis of the 3: turf or dirt, and I'm with Richie as to his reaction to the #7.

1-S
2-S
3-S
4-P
5-P
6-S
7-E, 22.1
8-S

Early horse looks versatile on or just off lead, but I think OTE

Esteps 1 And 2
#1sust
#2 Sust.
#3 Pres.
#4 Pres.
#5 Sust.
#6 Sust.
#7 Ear. 22.1 Sun 21.3 Zea
#8 Pres.
'por' Early The 7 Horse As A Long E.

Reaction
 

Rich and Pete

The moment I see the 7 horse captured

:eek:

#1-Presser
#2-Sustained
#3-Early------23.2
#4-Sustained
#5-Sustained
#6-Sustained
#7-Early-------------22.1
#8-Presser

Can't find anyone close to #7. Looks like a Lone Early.

Possibly another 8 to 10 length win.

VoodooFan

1 - Sustained
2 - Sustained
3 - Sustained in a Sprint
4 - E at a 22.1, won at 21.2
5 - Presser
6 - Sustained
7 - E at 22.1 not the best either
8 - Sustained

1 E/P 22.4
2 S
3 E 23.2
4 P 22.2
5 S
6 P
7 E/P 22.1
8 S
The race should run Early

Step 3
 

Step 3:

Now that you have a first fraction pace and have made a PRELIMINARY "mental call" on how the race will be won:

1) Keeping that first fraction in your head match the first 2 horses against one another focusing on races where that 1c pace existed. If a horse has not faced that pace throw him out. Remember that 1st call pace you have established by an early runner is a racer where the horse either WON or finished very close so you know it's real. So if a horse has not faced that pace OR faced it and done poorly THROW HIM OUT.

2) Keep the winner of that first matchup/throw the loser out and move to the next horse. Repeat the process.

3) Do this until you have reached the final 2 horse matchup. Post those 2 up please(who you have left)

If you would consider posting your process that would be great. Allows for feedback. (Pete C in the previous thread has it laid out beautifully for reference)
Richie

Close
 

Richie,

Describe very close?

Bob

Bob
Use your own personal judgment ok? Reason is that each of us has a "Mind's Eye" that sees things a bit differently.

Richie

#1, S - use race 5, 5.5f against todays pace: 4-4-3-2

#2, very S and slow, out

#3, [Tandem with #1, lost big] very S and slow, out - rte extractions slow too

#4, [Tandem with #1, beat #1] could use lines 1-2-4; won and placed at better than todays pace in last two; use race 2: 6-5-3-2, or race 1: 5-5-3-1

#5, [Tandem with #6 on 2/1] Mostly S-type but last showed more interest at the start and closer positioning at all points of call; could be a P off last. Pace of last just a little outside todays pace, but for now, in the mix: 2-4-4-3 (not a conventional power move profile)

#6, [Tandem with #1 and others] predominantly S type; last two lines against today's pace: 7-7-4-2 (2 back) but 4-3-4-5 in last. Trouble line indicates horse might have been a little better and power profile might have been better. 3 back pace is a little softer but closed 3-2-2-2, gaining at each call. Also broke 9th in last race and 3rd in 3rd back. Horse has habit of putting itself in a bind. In last race the leader(s) were probably gassed in the stretch which may have caused the blocked conditions. At todays pace there won't be so much backing up.

#7, the apparent pace setter that showed last out it could rate;showed he could fight late in 2nd from last race; formidable: either 2-2-1-1 or 1-1-1-1 in a better time. Use 3rd back to match up

#8, [Yet another Tandem with #1 and in this case a double tandem with the troubled #6. This horse also finds trouble whether wide or in stretch], S type with 6-7-6-4 and 5-6-5-4 lines. Lost in both tandems - out

Matchups: #4 v #1: 5-5-3-1 power move against faster puts away 4-4-3-2

#4 vs #5: #5 backs up against todays pace and #4 powers by. #5 Out. #5 backed up in tandem with #6 as well.

#4 vs #6: To me the big "if" horse: lost the fast tandem, but had trouble. Was 3-2-2-2 and gaining v. a pace that was hair slower than today. #4 better by 3rd call. #6 out.

#4 vs #7: Great match for 2 horse betters - and E and a P. #7 gets lead at 1st call, but #4 starts to pressure by 2c; #4 moves quickly against much better 5f times - but #7 fought well againt 57.3 2nd from bottom race.

#4 wins, but I like the exacta here

Bill

Close Up
 

Ok, i will use what Mike Pizzola suggests when looking for the Fulcrum horse and that is no mre than 5 lengths behind at the half and the finish. Think the late Ray Talbout and Huhey Maul used that also.

Bob

Step 3
 

Thanks for the kind words, Rich...very encouraging to hear while I'm trying to learn...

Projected Pace = 22.1

#1 vs #2...#2 has a winning race against a 22.2 and a dud against a 22.1; while #1 has made some impact a couple of times: line 2 (4-4-3-3) and line 5 (4-4-3-2). He also made up many lengths in his last race against a much faster pace (21.2)...I'd prefer the #1.

#1 vs #3...Although #3 ran well in line 5 against a 22.1 (6-5-3-2) he also got beat by the #1 horse in the last race tandem. Still prefer #1.

#1 vs #4...Here 's the tandem winner from the last line. In addition, line 2 he shows 6-5-3-2 against a 21.4, and a 2-2-1-1 against a 22.2 in line 4. Now, I like the #4.

#4 vs #5...#5 was close last time against a 22.3 but also shows 6 duds against 22.1/22.2 or better...Still like the #4

#4 vs #6...#6 was beaten last out in the tandem, but ran well 2 back (7-7-4-2) against a 22.2...Still, he got beat in the tandem and his other races in the ballpark of today's pace don't look so good...I'll stick with #4.

#4 vs #7...Here's my projected pacesetter who shows a win last out (2-2-1-1) against a 22.1 and another win 3 back wire-to-wire against a 22.1, and a very competitive race 6 back against a faster 21.3 which included some fighting in the stretch)...Honestly, This is where I probably would abort the process and skip down to the #8. After eliminating him, I'm confident this race is down to the #4 and the #7. What I see with the #4 is that he can run very close to the pace too and even fight against a pace like today's. If the pace gets too quick he can fall further back and still run well too. My initial impression was the race to run early, and #4 is a horse I'd want to consider in either an Early or an OTE race. Anyway, as a 2-horse bettor I'd bet both, but as a one-horse bettor, I could not confidently separate the 2.

Pete

Ok excellent feedback so far!

I am VERY happy because I can give you all some straight talk from Jim regarding separation of the the final 2 contenders WHEN you are very confident you have the race down to 2 guys ok?

I'll wait a few days for others to chime in and then give you direct feedback that the Hat gave me when I would get "stuck" and couldn't separate the final 2.

EVERYONE seems very sincere in their working of these races and that is EXCELLENT man!

The "Voodoo Man's" words will help all those stuck in a few days I promise.

Richie

1 vs 2 - 2 is way off at 1st call ...go with the 1
1 vs 3 - 3 better in routes, off pace in sprints.....still the 1
1 vs 4 - 4 better at 1st call that the 1...4 is the one
4 vs 5 - 5 last time out off pace at 1st call....out
4 vs 6 - third back was as good as it gets for 6...off pace.....out
4 vs 7 - pace setter and finishes...in 7th back shows a some fight...keep 7
7 vs 8 - off pace in sprint....out with 8

Leaves the 7 with the 4 as a second win bet

azbacks (Pete H)

1st call projection---22.1

#1 vs #2 --- #1 has line 2 (4-4-3-3) & line 5 (4-4-3-2) both at todays pace.
#2 line 1 is 7-7-5-2 at a 22.3. Line 3 & 4 of the #2 , he's 7th both times at a 22.3
and gets beat very bad. Top off #2 line 6 at todays pace with
6-8-4-7 . #2 is OUT. #1 is IN.

#1 vs #3 --- #3 line 3 fails badly at a 22.2. #3 line 5 at
todays pace is 6-5-3-2. #1 PowerLine 5 is 4-4-3-2. The #1
is ahead of the #3. #3 is OUT. #1 is IN.

#1 vs #4 --- #4 line 1 DESTROYS #1 in Tandem. #4
line 2 shows faster Pace of Race vs #1 PowerLine 5, so #4
will be closer to the pace. #4 line 4 position is 2nd and
WINS, also closer to the pace than #1. #1 is OUT. #4 is IN.

#4 vs #5 --- #5 has failed at todays projected 1st call in ALL
lines. #5 line 1, he's is position 2nd at a 22.3 and
finishes 3rd, while #4 is line 4 is position 2nd at a 22.2
and WINS. The #4 is ahead of the #5. #5 is OUT.
#4 is IN.

#4 vs #6 ---#6 line 1 LOST in Tandem to #4. #6 line's
2,3, & 5 he's 7th at a 22.2, 3rd at a 22.3 and 7th at a 22.3
ALL finishing 2nd. We have the #4 who WINS from 2nd
position from a 22.2. #6 is OUT. #4 is IN.

#4 vs #7 ---#7 lines 1 & 3 can WIN from BOTH positions 1 & 2
at a 22.1. #7 line 6 PowerLine shows he can run much
faster if he has to. The final straw is possibly WHERE
the #4 will challenge the #7. The #7 Lines 1,3 & 5
can withstand any possible challenge from the #4 at a
FASTER pace. Besides, the #4 style lately is a Presser
that presses late anyway(sustained presser). #4 is OUT.
#7 is IN.

#7 vs #8 --- #8 does not have any lines to match with the #7.
#8 is OUT. #7 is IN.

Looks like we are left with the #7 as a Lone Early horse with the #4 coming in
the money.

VoodooFan

Richie, you addressed this in the post titled " How to best match using
raw/original times and the entire past performances?" Practice race #2.

VoodooFan

Confirming Restless Tizzy's first call pace to match against: 22.1. He just sat 2nd off that pace and won by 8+ and he set that pace in his maiden claiming breaker. Going back to the 21.3 he set in that straight maiden race @ Zia is stretching it. He shouldn't have to run any faster than 22.1 as there is no one else in the race that has had the lead at the first call in either a sprint or route in 22.1
============================================================
1 v 2: The 1 shows a 2nd place finish and a more distant 3rd vs. a 22.1. The 2 has not faced a 22.1. The 1 moves on.

1 v 3: The 3 shows a close 2nd vs. a 22.1 45.3 (6-5-3-2). The 1 ran against a 22.1 45.4 (4-4-3-2). Even if I adjust the positions on the 1 to 4-5 for running a tick slower 2nd call, he's ahead at the first call.

The 1 has also run well off a 57.3 stretch call while the 3's fastest close race shows a 58.1 stretch call. The 1 moves on.

1 v 4: The 4 won the 03-23 tandem off a 21.2 43.4 56.3 (5-5-3-1). The 3 stands no chance. The 4 moves on.

4 v 5: The 5 has never run successfully against a 22.1. The 4 moves on.

4 v 6: Comes out of the 03-23 tandem the 4 won and appears to have had some trouble. He had 1 position on the 4 at the first call and 2 positions on the 4 at the 2nd call before being blocked late 1/16 before the stretch call. My tandem strategy here will be to say that the positional advantage would have carried to the end without the trouble. The 6 moves on.

6 v 7: I quote: "It is VERY difficult to go wire to wire against FAST horses who make great Power Moves." - The Hat

I think the 6 would have shown a stronger move w/o trouble in his last and he showed a very nice one two back off a 22.2 45.1. I think the 6 will move by the 7. The 6 moves on.

6 v 8: Another entrant out of the very fast paced 03-23 tandem race who also seems to have had some trouble (6-7-6-4). I think the 6 had trouble earlier in the race than the 8 did and was positionally better at the 1st 3 calls.

Also, their common race of 02-01 has the 6 positionally better at every call.

My 1 horse bet would be the 6. My 2 horse bet would be the 6 and 8, odds allowing.

Lou's 2 cents

Stuck on 2 contenders?
 

Over a year ago Hat gave me this feedback when I would get stuck on 2 horses and couldn't reduce to 1. When I use quotes believe me it is EXACTLY the man's words to me.

" Rich when you have the race down to 2 contenders and one of them is EARLY bet the EARLY horse." - Jim Bradhsaw

Result chart for this race will go up Saturday morning.
Richie

Here is the result chart as promised. 2 suggestions if I may:

1) If you WON the race go back now and win it AGAIN. Look at what you did. Let your "mind's eye" see and remember this winning procedure. You have no idea how important this will be to your future success of matching horses.

2) If you LOST the race please do NOT go back to it and try to win it or make the winner come up. Do NOT.You have no idea how important this will be to your future success of matching horses. Practice the procedure outlined. Wait for the next one to go up here and ask questions ok?

As far as THIS race look at the winning 7 horse's pp's.
a) look at the last race. A blowout win so there can be NO question the horse is still a horse ( Hat's description when he taught me)

b) Now you open the pp's all the way. Ok come down to line 6. There is NO other horse/POWERLINE that can touch that line pace of race AND positionally.

If you remember couple of weeks back when I said Hat wanted me to do THIS race it was because of "a" and "b" laid out above.

I read Hat the pp's over the phone when he was in the hospital and the words you see in part "B" above were his EXACT comments to me.
==========================================================

OK I wanted to get the result up today as promised. That's done.

In a couple of days I will talk to you about the future of the "Hat Check" forum. Jim gave me some very specific feedback on the BEST way to proceed after he passed and I NEED to tell you that ok?

Safe day everyone
Richie

OK, So What Did I Learn?
 

That to do the match up properly, my decision to discard the line of the #7 because it was back in the pp's at a higher class than he ended up breaking his maiden for was not a good one.

I need to discard my notions of "back in the pp's" and "class" if I want to work the match up successfully (I can see Doc smiling). Lesson learned. Gracias amigo.