Pizzolla window scores again with standout
 

6th race - Fort Erie - June 02, 2008
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
4 Silver Strip 12.40 5.00 4.60
3 Chemistry Class 7.20 4.80
10 Another Ascot 4.30

Tim,
Pizolla Window?? Can you explain? I have read Handicapping Magic and can't recall.
Thanks,
Cecil

Can you also relate it to the screen shot....thanks.

Unlike the dirt, one goes through the BEST lines of the past 10 for turfers. The incremental screen is where all turfers show their dominance: LATE.

Same info different view. Also, top rated BL/BL when eliminate down to top 5 Total Energy. #6 Trigon is not a logical candidate for Win with such poor Late figures. RDSS Segments screen shows same as Spec160 Incremental screen (sorted differently here).

I agree: use Turf lines from the entire PPs, especially if a horse is showing any signs of life, or back class (winner was 2nd Class horse - green).

Nice Exacta and Trigexcta in top 2 and top 4 respectively.

Attachment 12048
Attachment 12049

You have to understand the normality of Fort Erie: they have very few legitimate turfers so early often does well or their course.

So, 'all Turfers show their dominance: Late' and at the Fort Erie turf course, 'Early often does well'. That about covers it...

Ted

Best of last 3
 

Hey look If I do best of last 3 Poly or turf lines
the 4 is a bet
What is the story with this 10 horse The "red box' # 1 CR and very high APV ??

The atypical lawn
 

Cracking out the old files and results to show how Fort Erie is not the typical haven for the blade runners.

It didn't even take long enough to go back in the files as the 5th showed up in a Md turfer to tell the 1st chapter of the Fort Erie turf story: EARLY.


4th race - Fort Erie - June 03, 2008
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
7 El Camino Royale 18.10 7.80 3.30
6 Justwatchmerun 6.90 3.20
3 Highland Connor 2.10

$2 Triactor 7-6-3 373.40
$2 Exactor 7-6 111.00
$1 Pick 3 7-5-7 (3 correct) 22.70

Philly is another venue without real turfers
 

And the earlies generally do well as they did today there. A 5/1 shot prevailed as the best early here in the 7th paying $12.40 on track, with the 5 running second.



7th race - Philadelphia Park - June 03, 2008
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
3 Mathewlovestoparty 12.40 5.40 3.40
5 Giveityourbestshot 3.20 2.40
7 Favorite Valay 4.40

$2 Exacta 3-5 42.20
$2 Trifecta 3-5-7 219.00
$2 Pick 3 6-3-3 (3 correct) 431.60

6th Fort Erie lawn bowlers
 

The significant different Fort Erie turf crowd substantiates yet again that it is a unique surface requiring constant vigilance as it is different than most. EARLY wins again.

I could go on and on, but the point is: when you have dirt horses running on turf: they run like dirt horses. The occasional REAL turf horse will overtake them.


6th race - Fort Erie - June 03, 2008
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
6 Ballisticstatistic 7.30 3.30 3.00
1 Kazillion 3.50 2.80
4 Trajectly Kool 5.20

$2 Triactor 6-1-4 183.10
$2 Exactor 6-1 17.20

Again, today, the limited typical turf ability is just not around at some of the courses where it is an after thought as in the 9th at Philly. The winner is earliest, relatively to this group.
9th race - Philadelphia Park - June 03, 2008
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
8 Allnightdance 4.80 3.00 2.40
2 Kayla's Smile 3.20 2.20
4 Queenly Luck 2.60

$2 Daily Double 5-8 48.40
$2 Exacta 8-2 17.40

granted, you guys are using figures from the software you use.
Pizzola used PPF.
Does anyone remember how to calculate the PPF's. Is the fulcrum needed??
Cec:confused:

PPF = F3+time value of 2nd call beaten lengths.

Ted

Ray Taulbot software

Ted,
F3 is late pace??

Chalky!

It is Fraction 3, i.e. the time between the 2nd call and the finish. Pizzolla creates PPF by taking the F3 time and adding 1/5th or 2/10th seconds per 2nd call beaten length (or you could do the equivalent by velocity, FPS).

Ted

Cecil,
it seems you're studying some of RT, from the selected pacelines.....I love it.

Pino,
Back in the saddle again...heehaaa. Feeling good, bud.
In maiden races, I have had good luck by not putting any filters on the software and letting it find the best "pace of race" for each horse. as long as the horsie has shown some sign of life in that race.
Other races, I do filter for relative distance and surface and let fly...sometimes crawling into the wayback mobile....
Cec
Been doing alot of Taulbot reading.....love his style and "old" ideas.....

Ray Talbout and Huey Mahl knew what to study long before most.....Most (outside of the Sartinites) still don't know the keys to understanding the interactions of pace.........

Cecil,
glad to see you're doing fine. I don't play Maiden, never been succesfull at them. I have been reading a lot as well. I did find RT approach to pace, quite similar to the MU concept. Everything seems to evolve arround the horse best race in his past performance compared to the most recent races. RT called back class. If the horse doesn't show any improvement in the recent races, closer to his best, the horse is out. I'm wondering if this the approach the the HAT used in eliminate horses. RT uses the last two or three races to see if the horse is in an improving mode, he does this, by using his angles approach. Front running, early speed, positions and gaining lengths, stretch gain, fast races, slow races, speed ratings, workouts, trainer intents, etc....
As you can see some of these so called angles, are actually an indication how the horse did perform recently. I'm no telling you anything new, you know the routine. If only my friend Jeff would start to read RT....:).

LBJ,Im doing so now.Jeff

Jeff,
You will enjoy the reads....
Remember, this stuff was written many, many years ago. The general public has no idea. "Old stuff that's new again"
Cec
PS..don't know if I would adhere to banking on pacelines within 17 days only...or something like that.

Cec,
Rt used 14 days as a bench mark. In the late 50 early 60 horses were running with 5-6-7-8 days rest, sometimes with 4 days rest, as you can see from the horse's pps included in the studies. Things are most different now. Today's AP points might be umbalanced due to the fact that the percentages might have changed to some degree. I'm having a bit of difficulties in gauge the percentage value of Days Since Races.

days since
last race-----Impact value
___3__________2.38
___4__________1.62
___5__________1.38
___6__________0.58
___7__________0.81
___8__________0.95
___9__________0.95
__10__________1.12
__11__________0.88
__12__________0.98
__13__________1.03
__14__________1.00
__15__________1.01
__16__________0.91
__17__________0.94
__18__________1.07
__19__________0.93
__20__________1.12

this a 8000 races study from another forum which you are familiar with.

Impact values, once put into an overall database, diffuse out the specific differences of one race track where (like the Fort Erie "early" grass situation) the 'capper has a distinct advantage over those looking a averages.