Two Horse Win Betting
 

In today's sixth race at Monmouth #1 was my second choice. My top pick was #7. Fortunately, I bet them both to win. This is my biggest mutuel of the year and I would have missed it by only betting my top horse!

NICE!!!!!!!:eek:

Cut that chart out and frame it and look at it from time to time when things get slow or you think about not betting a horse because of his odds.

Very Nice !!!

sweet...are you playing the "Survival" contest online at Monmouth....that one should beeeee a weeeeener
Cec

hit
 

nice hit A D!

Thanks, guys. No, I didn't play the contest. I see in another thread that RDSS had this horse too...and Clavezza had it for the contest! Outtasight!

Nice
 

Real nice work
David

GS
Bill

admin
 

Whenever there is confusion whether to bet "win" only or " 2 win " horses,
You can refer them to Alydar David's post Bill. One picture worth a lot
of lessons.

excellent job Alydar D.

I can't imagine the mental state, had you decided to play only your "top"
horse Alydar D.

BobC:)

Dad
 

Hi Bob

Yep just one more reason why I bet two horse
not always both to win but I do need two horses running

On Saturday My dad Brooks asked me to do the Belmont Stakes for him
I did and told him about the 6

He put the 6 in his superfectas
but lost because he had BB somewere in all his tickets

As soon as the race was over, after the shock of the race
I thought a minute and heard Docs voice in my head
probably heard it on a tape many times too
"thats why we bet two horses"

I sat there with nothing on the race because I just wanted to see the triple crown
Why not bet them both ?

Just my take
But I am not that confident. I'm sure one horse bets are for some people
and its all cool

GS
Bill


I

Admin
 

Years ago i used to be consumed about picking " the winner ".

After many ups,downs, and many losing tickets, i learned to use 2 key
horse betting and the box wager. That's when i began to make MONEY .

BobC:)

Hi Bob,Would you please show an example of doing that?Thanks Jeff

Jeff
 

Hi Jeff.

I will use the last race as an example, even though i missed the exacta, but
you can get an idea of what i mean.

my contenders in race 9 were 1-3-8-9
3 and 9 were closest to the required median energy for the distance.

my " 2 keys " would be 3 and 9. If i had more than 2 horses that fit
the median energy requirements, i would "key" with the 2 highest odds
horses. Depending on the odds, and how deep i want to get into a race,

exacta = 3-9 boxed with other contenders. Trifectas = 2 key horses with
the rest of the contenders. The same goes for the Superfecta.

The one RULE in all of this is : my first bet is a Win wager on my 2 key horses
before any exotic wagers are placed. In all cases, the odds must provide value.

BobC:)

Bob,Thanks for sharing.Jeff

What program do you use to keep profiles of what the current best median energy is for a distance? Also what program do you use to determine whether today's horse fits the energy requirement and is it based on 1 representative pace line or a mixture of pace lines?

Thanks.

Jim

PS...Always make the win bet! You did hammer that home in the Work Horse supplemental manual. :)

JimG
 

Hello JimG.

I use Trackmaster datafiles for my handicapping. Most of the software used on this site will produce median energy numbers. I pick the most common distances at a track. I check the results everyday and record the median energy of the Winner. A total of 50 to 100 races with at least 25 to 30 matches will create a useable profile.

After accumulating enough races and results, i remove all of the extremely high and low medians (aberants) and all like types. This is the method i developed many years ago. There are upper and lower limits to the median numbers. PLUS .15 high and Minus .15 low are considered the same.
(point one five percent)

When comparing the horses for final contention, i use the median energy from the paceline which qualified the horse. Sometime the median energy is
over or under the limits. It's ok, as long as they are the closest to the profile.

The most accurate of profiles will predictive in 3 to 4 races in a 9 race card
or more. The other race outcomes will be determined by the MATCH UP.
You can create a useable profile in a very short time using the most
common distances at a track. The larger tracks will provide the most
profiles as opposed to the small tracks with a limited number of horses and
fewer races at certain distances.

A properly created profile will build confidence in your final selections for
the Win slot. Extreme median energy numbers hi or low, are caused by
Lone Early Winners, Lone Late Winners, and Winners of PaceLess races.

Hope this helps,
BobC:)

Congratulations David!

Ted

bob:

do you then isolate these aberrant numbers by outcome type? e.g. lone late energy figures? are they predictive at all, or is it only by analysis that you select your late winner?

how do your median figures apply to grass?

tlt

Bob:

i have recently experienced the worst losing streak ever (i hit a hundred dollar horse and a 40 dollar horse to pretty much stay afloat) and i can't even begin to tell you the number of seconds by a whisker i had, and my selections arriving second and third at big odds. it has been a wonderful learning experience. i have learned to curse at loud volumes, throw things with outstanding accuracy, and kick my dog.

in keying your horses, do you determine which races are more likely to be resolved in a matchup ? or do you simply key your median horses in all those races without trying to select race-types?

tlt

Tlt
 

Please don't kick the dog lol

I find in races where the running styles are balanced, the profile is usually
predictive. 1e: there are a couple of early horses, 2 or more pressers, and
assorted late runners. Most of the time 1 early is faster than the other so it really doesn't exert too much pressure.

The MatchUp comes into play more times than not,when there are 2 or more early horses, an early presser or 2 ,and assorted presser sustained and sustained types.

This creates an unbalanced E/L issue, but is usually resolved by the Match Up.
BobC:)

TLt
 

I key my best profile horses in races i consider "balanced" These races can be narrowed down to 3 or 4 horses for WIN. I then select the 2 closest to the profile. If there are more than 2 close, i bet the 2 with the most value.

BobC:)

Tlt
 

Referring to your note about seconds and thirds, I had a similar experience
years ago at SP-PK. I was in 5 photo finishes out of a 9 race card and lost
all of them. None of my horses were chalk, thank goodness i wagered WIN-PLACE. I didn't lose any money, but my underwear was wringing wet LOL

I felt like i had worked 2 (8) hr shifts. It's rough.! Those photos can be button poppers. LOL
BobC:)

2 horse win betting.
 

2 Horse win betting not only is it betting against yourself but it will cause you to over handicap a race. Often the winner will be your first choice it is only then thru the practice of trying to find your second choice ( expecially if you seek a long price horse ) that you will over handicap a race and bet against your top choice, this will sub consciously put some doubt in your mind against your first analysis of the race.You will lose some of your confidence and then will not Hammer your first choice like you should and thus will win less $.

This 2 horse win betting has cost me more money than betting exotics.

Live and learn.

Mike.

With One horse win betting you can bet almost all your horse races Win / Place.

I do this for All horses over 5-1 , often they pay $6. plus to place. A 12 -1 horse with no heavy favorite will pay $ 8 to $ 10 to place( depending on field size ) which is more money than some people get on the winner. Also many times the PLACE POOL is IGNORED.

Mike.

Bob,Being in Pirco what is your opinion of The Match Up.By listening to some of the old seminar tapes it seemed like only The Hat could do it without using a computer program.I have been reading some of Ray Taulbot's material from the 1950's and it seems to me most of The Match Up concept was taken from him.Jeff

shoeless
 

The Match Up is basic handicapping procedure. Jim spoke on it the most
because he was the BEST there was using it, without a computer.

He also stated on many occasions that he passed some races due to the fact that there were too many variables to make an educated opinion in a given race. In my opinion, a good track profile will get you about one third of a nine race card. The Match Up could probably be applied to 4 of the
remaining 6 successfully.

BobC:)