Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   Best CPR Paceline.... (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4656)

Charlie D 10-19-2008 03:06 PM

Best CPR Paceline....
 
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seems a decent base from which to build from (at Philly anyway)

Charlie D 10-19-2008 03:12 PM

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More CPR

Charlie D 10-19-2008 03:28 PM

Ooops, forgot results :rolleyes:


Pha 1

2-6-1

Pha 2


8-6-12

Pha 3


5-3-4

Pha 4

2-5-4

Pha 5

3-2-6

Pha 6

6-4-1

Pha 7


3-7-1

Charlie D 10-19-2008 03:49 PM

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More CPR

Pha 8

1-3-6

Charlie D 10-19-2008 03:58 PM

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Pha 9

Charlie D 10-19-2008 04:08 PM

Pha 9

9-5-10

mikesal57 10-19-2008 05:45 PM

Hey Charlie

not bad...prices too...didu just see this or it has been going for a while?

mike

Charlie D 10-19-2008 06:02 PM

Hi Mike


Richie P

Quote:

Morning Barb
What I did was simply use the horses best CPR number in the pp's. Honestly that's all it was. Nice as that was it also hurt many times yesterday and I wound up about 1000th

I borrowed the above idea from Richie as i thought it was interesting and tried it out on Philly today, so only a small sample


Maybe you and others can try it at one of your tracks and let us know results

Charlie D 10-19-2008 06:42 PM

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Lets see how he blows at MNR

Charlie D 10-19-2008 06:43 PM

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Rest

mikesal57 10-19-2008 06:52 PM

Hey Charlie....your driving me nuts on your pace line selections...I see off tracks...routes in sprint race...sprints in routes ...etc ..etc..is this planned?

mike

Charlie D 10-19-2008 06:58 PM

Mike

Best CPR in PP and thats it mate


Ignoring distance, surface etc

Bill V. 10-19-2008 08:02 PM

5horse
 
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Hawthorne and Oaktree

Charlie D 10-19-2008 08:09 PM

Hi Bill

Can you do other races at Haw and see how many Best CPR gets in Top 5 BL/BL

Bill V. 10-19-2008 08:18 PM

Auto paceline
 
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The 8 horse

Seems like Ted could make the program do this for you
Just put in the top CPR

Charlie D 10-19-2008 08:21 PM

You reading my mind Bill :)

RichieP 10-19-2008 08:30 PM

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Belmont

Charlie D 10-19-2008 08:31 PM

Very Nice Richie

RichieP 10-19-2008 08:32 PM

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Santa Anita

RichieP 10-19-2008 08:33 PM

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Santa Anita redux

RichieP 10-19-2008 08:35 PM

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Woodbine

Charlie D 10-19-2008 08:36 PM

:eek:


Hope you were on these Richie

RichieP 10-19-2008 08:36 PM

Have fun!

:2b:

Bill V. 10-19-2008 08:40 PM

No
 
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Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlie D (Post 41822)
Hi Bill

Can you do other races at Haw and see how many Best CPR gets in Top 5 BL/BL


No Charlie

I really would never want to know

Why?? Because I'm a stubborn old fool that has been
reading follow ups since 1997
I do what I do because I was taught to do it and I have gotten
years of pleasure doing it basically the same way
I truly have never blamed anything other than myself
for any short comings in the guidelines set up by
Pirco and the inland empire. Or O Henry House .
It has always been about my own inability to stay focused

I had a winning day at Philly I lost the two races
I showed because I was asked to do them by two others

I would have lost them anyway I worked them.
If I had won ether one of them, the few extra dollars in my pocket
could not pay for the indecision things like auto selection
would create

Why then did I look at the Hawthorne and Oaktree races
Something in me has been growing I can't really explain it
but I'm very encouraged by it What it is is almost a sense of seeing the
winner from the pace line selection process
I did not get a good feeling of the winners of each race
I did only in the Hawthorne race, after seeing the BLBL
Years of consistently looking at races and line selection might
have finally sunk in

Which brings me back to doing this Sartin Methodology thing
in the first place ... I'm one of the lost sheep Doc talks about
If I stray away I will be lost and lonely
I am in no position to follow any new paths
So to reply to your question

No thank you


GS
Bill

Charlie D 10-19-2008 08:49 PM

Thats :cool: Bill

Reason i wanted you to do Best CPR at Haw and post them was to see where they were ranked on FX, FW, Hidden, TT etc

barb craven 10-19-2008 09:11 PM

Interesting! I'm glad I asked the question.

Barb

Charlie D 10-19-2008 09:13 PM

Hi Barb

Richie has put us on track i think ;)

Bill V. 10-19-2008 09:14 PM

Me
 
I understand Charlie

I would prefer to do a race that I am about to bet
or review a race I have won ala the Philly race Binder method post
that proceeds this thread

I would be very proud to show were these factors you are requesting
rank I must be in the proper mind set our else the readouts will not be
accurate

Dare to be your self

Bill

Charlie D 10-19-2008 09:17 PM

Bill

You should be proud, your a winner and your step by step of how this is done are good imo

clore1030 10-19-2008 09:35 PM

Bel 8th Race
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP (Post 41825)
Belmont

I caught that one today. I used the TPP rating for each horse in turf races, what Tim Y refers to as "the Pizzola window."

RichieP 10-20-2008 06:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlie D (Post 41837)
Hi Barb

Richie has put us on track i think ;)


No no no!

Morning Charlie :)
All I have done is throw something out there after having used all the "battleship" programs on the market before RDSS came to life.

Bill V has it right on the button when he says that maybe a "best ever" auto type line selection could be an option along with the Sartin "best of last 3 comparable" auto selector.

I would definitely use THAT (bl3 comp) as the default out of a show of respect for Howard and also cause it works just fine thank you :)

Let's review something for a minute for a perspective on how other packages present the race upon opening.

HSH - uses composites which are made up of things from the last FOUR races

Jcapper - program defaults and line selector is best of last 5 races within 120 days

Htr - "Pl5" is default line selector which focuses on last 5 races. Will use 1 or 2 lines to generate reads and will "think" a bit on lines being used. This thing "thinks" about what it is doing.

Black Magic - default line (s) selector is "O.P.M." which stands for
Obvious
Poor
Money
This is the other line selector that "thinks" about what it is doing/ Will stick pigs and obvious horses with last couple of lines (if not just the last line). Then find some potential value horses (not going further here out of respect to MP) and opens their form cycle all the way using best line shown in pp's.

FWIW the only 2 software's (to the best of my knowledge)that have had winners of a NATIONAL tourney with prizes of over 50 K to the winner acknowledged as their choice are HTR and Black Magic.

Could CREATIVE THINKING have anything to do with this?

The caveat is that after one is "presented" with a first look from say an auto line selector we the user then have the job of "overseeing" or "examining" what we are being given. We don't like something we change it. We like it it is left alone.

Safe day and GREAT hit Clore at Belmont!!

barb craven 10-20-2008 08:07 AM

Morning Charlie

I'm only using it as one of the things I'm looking at when I'm analyzing past races to try to find out WHY??

Morning Richie.
As usual you make my head swirl with all your ideas.

Morning Bill
I've been following your teaching of your binder improver method. Couldn't be clearer. You are a good teacher. I like your "house" too.

Back to work.:)

Barb

Charlie D 10-20-2008 09:29 AM

Richie

Quote:

Could CREATIVE THINKING have anything to do with this?


Yes and this should be encouraged


Barb

Use whatever works for you , remember

Quote:

There are NO RULES to the Methodology, only guidelines
Jim "The HAT" Bradshaw

RichieP 10-20-2008 09:29 AM

use 5f lines in 5 and 5.f races only unless specific horse just broke mdn in last race and that was 5f (example)

keep within distance structure - sprint/sprint route/route (consider 7f as both sprint and route).

use sloppy,muddy,wet lines fast only on off tracks.

Fast and good lines on fast tracks

Turf routes to turf routes

Turf sprints accept BOTH turf/dirt sprint lines

consider top Cpr and all lines within 1/2 point of that top. If multiple lines use them all and take line best ranked on Bl/Bl (thats your computer matchup as Bill V has said!)

Beaten lengths finish can vary to your preferences on what is "good race"

That would be Richie's auto paceline selector preferences using "Best Cpr". What would be YOURS? Ideas? :)

Then a check of recent races to oversee whats going on

Stay cool

Charlie D 10-20-2008 10:43 AM

Richie seems a "creative thinking" type of person to me

Without Bill's "creative thinking" we probably would not have the Binder Improver or PaceandCap

Without Captain Ted's "creative thinking" we probably would not have RDSS



I think Doc and others like him would encourage these "creative thinkers" as without Doc's "creative thinking" we probably would not have the Methodology or The Match Up,

Without Pizzola's creative thinking we may not have Black Magic, Without Ken Massa's creative thinking we may not have HTR and so on



Creative thinking has to be encouraged

Profiler8 10-20-2008 02:18 PM

Hi,

Very good concept !
Well, should I use the best rating, when it is over a year back or should I consider the best CPR on it last 5 lines ?

Thanks...

Greetings
Tim

clore1030 10-20-2008 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP (Post 41845)
Could CREATIVE THINKING have anything to do with this?

The caveat is that after one is "presented" with a first look from say an auto line selector we the user then have the job of "overseeing" or "examining" what we are being given. We don't like something we change it. We like it it is left alone.

Safe day and GREAT hit Clore at Belmont!!

Thanks Richie - and special thanks to Tim Y who kept trumpeting the idea of the Pizzola window approach to turf races.

I think that regardless of whether an auto-line is implemented, one must always use creative thinking. I'm not ready yet to provide any data as I'm just beginning to utilize an approach, but I have been using some creative thinking myself and tracking results for the last few days at Belmont.

It's a dirt race approach that combines Charlie's idea of using the best line along with the best of the last three. I just have to determine the proper barometer.

Consider it this way - you take the best line of the last three, and note the speed rating. Is it the horses best of all races showing? If so, use it.

If not, and it falls within a certain threshold of the horses best, then use that line.

So, let's say the best of the last three is an 86 speed rating. But the horse shows a 90 further down the past performances. That's a 4 point difference and maybe the horse is close enough to that number to repeat that effort.

The 4 point difference is thrown out for example purposes - the thing I'm looking for is what the ideal point spread should be to make one opt for going past the last three comparable.

I'm not even sure if the speed rating should be the barometer. Maybe it's through using the perceptor rating that I'll discover something valuable. A horse could have a #2 ranked perceptor line within the last three - is there any validity in using the top-ranked perceptor line if the second best is within recency?

It's a matter of trying to use the last three to determine if the horse is capable of firing its best - if the best isn't within the last three.

This will probably take me a while to accomplish as I only play one track and have minimal skills with building a data base. But I am tossing this out in case anyone else wants to consider it as an approach, or has tried it already and can tell me if I'm, dare I say it, beating a dead horse.

I'm just working on the premise that no matter what something is, it can be made better. It may be my need for ego-fulfillment, but I'd like to contribute to making something better. If it makes my wallet thicker, that makes it better.


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