Last Night at Mountianeer 12-15-08
 

Hello, I recently joined the group and started testing RDSS. Last night at Mountaineer in the 8th race you can really see the power of RDS and the Sartin Methodology.

The race was set up for other then early because of a speed dual between the 1, 4, and 7.

The 2 and the 6 figured to be the horses that benifited the most. They were ranked 1st and 2nd in the following: DCL, LPR, HID, FW, FX, PRIM LS, BL SCORE, VDC, SPN, E, TPP SUPP LS and in Fractals L and N.

The results are posted below:

2 Bold Command Peltroche F $35.60 $13.00 $8.80
6 Great Shot Feliciano R $16.20 $8.80
5 Windham Hill Nguyen T $4.40
4 Dodwell Davila J M

$2 Exacta (2-6) Paid $322.40

I am sure you all have seen this kind of thing numerous times before but I wanted to share it with everyone :)

I also want to thank everyone in this group that have shared and tried to help new people get off to a great start while learning the Sartin Methodology
I have spent many hours reading what has been posted and I am slowly learning my way... I know I have a long way to go but I do see hope for a great future thanks to this group!

Doug

Mnr
 

Welcome Doug

Great work Yes I just looked at the race
You called it perectly
I have 7 2 1 6 the two is sitting right there in tier 2

good work

readouts
 

Here is my BLBL

Welcome Doug and congrats on a terrific hit! There will be more
:)

Question
 

for Bill and Doug. What was your logic for using a poly track line for a dirt track? Was it an energy thing.

Bob

Bob,

Doug and Bill can also respond, but FWIW my take: half the horses in the race ran at Presquile (PID), a poly surface, so if a line from that track represents what the horse can do today (or conversely, a line from MNR understates what it is capable of when fit and versus today's matchup) then use a line that fairly makes the horse look good. Consider letting the ITV and DTV adjustments equalize tracks and distances unless you have repeated evidence that those adjustments are not working for a particular track/distance.

#2 Good is a closer (when it feels like running) and performed that way in each of its last 2 races. Line 2 was a top Total Energy (confirmed by line 5) and a more comparable distance than line 1 at 12f. Sticking within the last 3 or so lines does the trick. Also interesting, #2 is the ONLY horse who showed any workouts at all since its last race - at least some indication of trainer intention and horse's fitness today.

(Re #6 Great: either it is not in form today off its last, or it alternates ITM every other race recently. If it's possible it could contend today, use a line which will make it so: 4th, not 2nd. If it's too unknown, toss it.)

Bottom line: I try to match surfaces if I can choose, but if a horse seems fit, try not to disadvantage it, energy-wise. And good odds are also insurance against uncertainty;).

From the armchair...


Attachment 14620

BTW, Doug - welcome, and great hit!

From Bill
 

Looking at the adjusted pacelines screen using Val 4 mode

Question
 

Bill,
Is there any advantage in using the adjusted screen rather than the original. I use the original and I also notice that Richie does too. I have had success with this.
Ira

Ira
 

I probably am not wise to do races the way I do
But I do because I have very little confidence
in myself to use raw numbers and make decisions
Its the "who the heck am I" way I look at myself

As I brought up in an earlier post Every once in awhile
I break out other Sartin programs and
force myself to use original lines and look at adjustment.
However
It all comes back to one basic thing. What works for me?
Its just do the race the way you did with Doc
The best Sartin users all have red wrist
So I snap myself back and I say
as Doc did years ago in Baumont California
Hey Aline... Come meet Bill form New Jersey
HE IS GOOD !

And then from Tulsa OK a few years ago
Jim Bradshaw saying
Bill bring your computer and bet two horses YOU ARE GOOD


If you can win using raw then thats great
Doc knew there were guys like me who just are never going to be
good at all So he made a method for us

Bill




I

Thanks to all that responded.

As far as why I went back on the 2 and 6 to pick a line...it was because I did not feel that the before lines indicated what the horses could do today in the matchup sense. I also didin't want to use the 12 furlong race the 2 had just ran because of the longer distance. The race set up really well for speed to quit and I was looking closely at all the closers and it just worked out I guess.

Doug

Bill,
Thanks.
Ira

Ira,

RDSS can be used either as a tool to assist in applying Matching techniques taught by Jim Bradshaw and RichieP (i.e. raw data, projected pace, tandems, positional colours, power moves, power lines, fighters, etc) - OR - the way Doc Sartin evolved his Methodology which uses equalized, normalized and adjusted call times, and velocities, energy distribution, compounded factors and deceleration - based on those adjusted times.

If one approach is working for you, and your records report a hit rate and average mutuel producing a consistent profit from a cycle of races, and the consecutive losses are not too psychologically tough - please stick with that and congratulations! I am told that both approaches can lead to this happy result:). I myself have never been comfortable enough with the raw/visual Match Up alone (using RDSS or the DRF). The adjusted figures work just fine for me.

However, I was stunned to work this race referred to by Richie: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4876, using my normal adjusted approach (failing horribly), then discovering after the fact that the 11-1 winner possessed 2 lines with the fastest raw 1st and 2nd call times on the board, despite weak overall Total Energy. The 5 Step Match Up approach was all over that one (only the E/L revealed anything useful to compare), and I reaffirm the value I know to lie in finding FAST horses (i.e. visually Early, and dominant at the 1st and 2nd calls, fighters even better).

So swing left or swing right, but swing for the bleachers!

Ted

Ted,
Thanks for the encouragement. Your program is great and has led me on to many nice priced horses. I am always looking to improve my skills, and if I am missing something in using the program I would like to know about it. Any helpful hints would be greatly appreciated. That is why I asked the question in the first place.
Ira

Question
 

for Bill V. Bill you had said that you do not use any line where the horse is beaten by more than 7.50 lengths. My question for you is this. Lets say you have a 6fur sprint. the horses last 3 lines are all at 6f. but in his last 3 races he finished 2nd beaten by 9 next race fin 3rd beaten by 10 lengths and third race back fin 4th beaten 9 lenghts. What do you do in that case?


Oh by the way RDSS users. I was at Tampa Bay downs yesterday and the software had the 78.00 turf horse in the 8th race yesterday right on top after scratches. For the winner i used his pace line from Sept 12 as his line from Nov 8 was a troubled line. Nailed the p3 for 1,000. I think this is a good time to be playing Tampa because horses are shipping in from all over the place.

Bob

Way to go Bob - Merry Christmas! I do think the TrackMaster ITVs do a good job in general of helping to equalize different tracks, so the time of a meet where shippers are over represented and misunderstood does offer great wagering against some relatively uninformed money.

I'll let Bill respond to the 1st part of your question (but remember his 7.5 beaten length comment applies to the Val mode due to the way Val treats BL during the 3rd fraction - I would not be so hesitant about BL=7.5 if you are using Spec mode).

Ted

Ahhhh
 

thanks Ted. I am using Spec.

its
 

Oh well. thanks for asking. any way Its probably best to use RDSS in Spec mode and do the race the way that will win for you


Bill

Ted
 

i still want your input on the validator and how you use it differently then spec.


Bob

Bob,

I don't use the Validator mode of RDSS, that's why I wanted to defer to Bill on that. He is a master of Validator as far as I am concerned (DOS or Windows). I hope he will respond. And perhaps other RDSS or Val4 users - I know you're out there.

Ted

Lines
 

Hi Bob i'll try to answer
lets say I saw this. I would think, Why is this horse finishing in the money but so far back ? Is is dropping from racing against better
Were the speed ratings in the races high compared to the
contenders in this race? I would look at the race ratings for the races too This type of horse is usually high in APV and CR
if so I would look at line 4 or 5 and use one of them if it was okay
BL wise. Another thing I could look at is the early late graph.
To finish in the money but far back 3 races in a row, maybe its too early or late for the track its been running at. Is todays EL fit better ?
I would look at these things. Most likely I would not put in a line for this horse if it had poor apv class ratings or total energy
Thats the way it is with Validator
But as I said Its probably much better to use the Spec mode
Bill