Thursday -- January 29, 2009
 

Tampa Bay Downs Changes
Thursday January 29, 2009

The Main Track condition is now: Fast

The Turf Track condition is now: Firm

The weather at the Track is now: Mstly Cldy, Low 70s

Aqueduct Changes
Thursday January 29, 2009

The Main Track condition is now: Muddy

The Turf Track condition is now: None

The weather at the Track is now: Clear, 30

AQI

1st: #7 Intiyaco has the best Early Pace and competetive figs, but I'm not crazy about the trainer. Nor do I like the fact the horse is a proven loser at the CLM10K level. Maybe a small win bet if he stays at 5-1.

AQU opener
 

Both :4: and :7: are improving in the opener

BEWARE the too fast lines from the rail horses recent Philly sojourn

on the OLD track, :3: would have been a strong contender.


I am getting much more respect now for John P. Grier, the only colt to ever have give Man O' War a serious run for his money...Good little runner of 1920

Gulfstream Park Changes
Thursday January 29, 2009

The Main Track condition is now: Fast

The Turf Track condition is now: Firm

The weather at the Track is now: Sunny, 80's

My buddy has a horse entered in the last race. I'm going to head to the track around 1:00. The first race doesn't interest me.

maybe there is some OLD TRACK left today????

AQI
Results at Aqueduct
Thursday January 29, 2009

Race: 1 Win Place Show
1st 3 Dr Silver Packet 28.60 9.30 5.30
2nd 4 Fit Faze 2.80 2.20
3rd 1 Come On Chas 2.90

Best closer in the race takes it at a nice price.

Oops, not best closer...getting my tracks mixed up here. LOL

I love marathons WOULD have liked the :5: but is going backwards

GP

9th: 3-4-11-12-2

If you see a guy wearing a Panama hat in the winner's circle, that'll be me!

:>)

My so far the track is NOT running the late late late of late as Successful Affair had the only FAR reaching positives of that last race +12 and the opener went to an old track profile....Watch out, it may have changed again

confusing opener at GP could go to the TWO or one of three outside....not clear cut enough for a wager

If a horse doesn't have two fraction dominance, there is no choice however the 12 shows one race like that...still too confusing

if :2: runs anywhere close to Fla form it will tell us that that one is as the odds describe AND the track is closer to the way it used to be with EIGHT picking up the pieces late.



3rd race - Aqueduct - January 29, 2009
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
2 Even Raise 5.70 3.40 2.80
3 Mister Nobody 4.20 3.20
8 Stealth Missile 2.80

speed is returning there.

GP 2nd seems a contest amongst 9 2 6

opps NINE is going backwards

gp 1

:9:, :7:, :12:

odds board reflect reality in the AQU 3rd as :1: :3: are standouts
:5: might be able to last as well but there are no surprises here

Let's see HOW much earlier it has become if the top five EPR's come in this could be a riding the coat tails race.

RIDING THE COAT TAILS OF A FAIRLY SURE WINNER
4th race - Aqueduct - January 29, 2009
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
1 Just Another Story 3.30 2.70 2.40
2 Sage the Rage 8.20 6.30
9 Angelic Timber 17.80

$2 Daily Double 2-1 10.60
$2 Exacta 1-2 33.20
$2 Quinella 1-2 24.80
$2 Superfecta 1-2-9-3 5,137.00
$2 Trifecta 1-2-9 603.00

gp #3

:1:, :2:, :3:

:1: :2: :7: at the Stream in the 3rd some odds lots of questions

:1: :5: and beware the false speed from the three's PHA lines in the AQU 5th unless that track has gone to a mirror image of itself that three will fold up here

Mark Cramer describes what just happened in the 4th at Aqueduct in his great book "Eleven Exacta Situations."

When a lone front runner hightails it way out front, it is as if that is now mutually exclusive of the race within a race going on as the field sorts itself out far back from that lone speed. Interesting book

That winner had a POSITIVE e/l so the speed is back there after FIVE examples of it's dominance

gp 4

:4:, :5:, :11: :12:

four should laugh at the AQU field unless a frister comes alive

gp 5

:1:, :2:, :12:

GP 5th 4? 10? 12? 9?

bunch of senior maidens

:4: :7: with honorable mention to the late late eight in AQU 7th

5th race - Gulfstream Park - January 29, 2009
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
12 Dazzler 6.40 4.60 3.00
4 Hickory Gray 22.80 11.00
9 Cacun Cacun 7.80

$1 Trifecta 12-4-9 693.60

gp 6

:2:, :4:, :8:

four seven with three underneath

loaded on the 7 to place so all is well

One FIVE at AQU in the eighth

gp 7

:4:, :2:, :7:

four nine one ten

the ONE closed a ton but versus such a slow half +50

and the NINE was at PHILLY!!! woof

hard to beat seven in the nightcap at AQU but three might give it a little test

R8 GP

:4: Obviously, :1a:, :6:

at 22/1 that entry horse is inviting...same three here

gp 9

:1:, :4:, :12:

three raced well only once......tough

10 and 11 look good although the 6 is an unknown other than turf racing in France is far better than it is here

Head bob......It is astounding unless you are up above RIGHT ON THE LINE, how superposition can fool you. I have had to show photos to disgruntled owners as they were caught up in the same perspective being fooled. Unless you are ON the line, you cannot rationally call a winner.

Stewards are even fooled sometimes and we have to show them large blowups to make sure they are satisfied that the results are what they are....