Will TPR Predict The Winner Of This Race?
 

Will TPR Predict The Winner Of This Race?

KEE 04-11-09 Race (1)

I've set up this spreadsheet to try and project the winner of this race using TPR (before the fact) and assuming I have the right contenders , which I've gotten with PaceAppraiser and my numbers are correct, the outcome should be favorable (hopefully). :) In my opinion there are some others on this board that share my belief that TPR is a very predictive factor when used correctly.

Anyone that wishes to express an opinion would be welcomed, encouraged and respected.

Beware Turfway lines being too good

Parts,Nice job on spreadsheet but I would include the EPR and FFR as well.Jeff

Morning Bill
Here is my Tpr look at the race. Also attaching the Blue Grass same look.

Hey great work at the Kee contest man! Keep it going strong Bill
Richie

Hi Partsnut,

can you give me some information about Paceappraiser to seperate the contenders from the non-contenders ? I am a new user of Paceappraiser. I think should be very useful for figuring out the pace of the race.

Thanks...

Greetings
Tim

Well since you guys are at least putting up readouts I thought I would throw my 2 cents in for 1st at Keeneland

Richie P:
Hi Ritchie,

Thanks for the kind encouragement.
The Keenland contest is very competitive. Lots of big price horses.
I'm at 38% winners (8 out of 21) with a positive ROI but find it hard to
compete against the "bombs". My best win was that $29.00 horse.
I guess luck has a lot to do with it.

It seems most of us are in agreement with the numbers.
We all do it in a different way.

Shoeless:
.Jeff

Jeff, thanks.
Your the guy that clued me in on this factor.
It's very strong.

I do look at the EPR and FFR but it has no bearing on my pick. It does indicate running style.

Profiler8: Tim, The best thing I can suggest is to read and study Randy's "Extreme Pace Handicapping". It's worth the read at $ 19.95.
This will give you an idea on how to seperate contenders. Randy has the qualification criteria in the book and also has some significant information on his web site.

Tim Y:
Your read outs are excellent as usual.

I appreciate the word of caution but I make no distinctions
on what track the pacelines transpired.
My basic play is predicated on form, fit, function and the PaceAppraiser Method.

Thank you for your knowlegeable and historical input. I enjoy reading it.

Shoeless: Your Synergism readouts are superb and worth a lot more then 2 cents.

It's seems you are in agreemnt as to who will win the race.
Nice job.

Toyota Blue Grass Stakes
 

Toyota Blue Grass Stakes

Ritchie, I see the race in a different light. It is very possible that your contenders are correct and that my pick will be wrong or visa versa.
That's what this game is all about.

I come up with the (3) TheregoesJoe.

It should be interesting to watch.

Have a happy and peaceful Easter Sunday with your family. :)
Enjoy.

Well at least you guys put the 1 in your computer I didnt because I dont like mixing dirt and ploy lines.Maybe I should rethink I redid the race using 1 last paceline.1 and 2 were far and away the best would have been a nice 82 ex .

Lone speed but on that track?

heck i like 6-8

Wow
 

#8 !!!:)

SPEC scores another bomb on top... :D

Make me smile
 

Jim and ML and Richie

Top TPR on Richies screen !!!

Thanks It was great rooting home the 8

nice work and now you have a nice reward
14/1 :)

..:eek:

oh yens guys!:o:o thanks

Richie nice job getting the winner and thanks for putting up the screenshots ,Im sure people benifitted from seeing it.Jeff

The Problem with TPR ratings, particularly on a track like Keeneland, is that they don't add in deceleration.

Ritchie, nice job.
I also wish to thank Tim Y. for his constructive input.
Congratulations to all the winners and the losers as well.

Wishing you all a peaceful and happy holiday.

TPR - Using Decelaration - SAX 04-12 (Race - 2)
 

Yesterday, Tim mentioned the absence of decelaration when using TPR.
His input appealed to me. Today we will use Synergism 4 and take into account the decelaration factor. Here are the screen shots for todays 2nd race at SAX.
The (7) PC2 is a presser/ closer type and the (2) C0 is a closer.
The race sets up for early (6X0) speed points and should dictate a slow/fast scenario.
Opinions are always welcomed and encouraged. :)

Using RDSS, I also came up with the #7 horse. He looks like a solid horse here but the odds won't be very high.

Hello Bill
 

Hope you are having a nice holiday weekend. The best to you

Can you explain what you mean " The race sets up for early
//should dictate a slow fast scenario"

If the race sets up early would the pace be fast early and slow late ?


Bill

Lil Bro, Good cappin on that 1st race as well.If you figured that race to be other then early boxing your top 3 LPR would have gotten you the ex and tri.

EX 1-2 82.20

TRI 1-2-5 488.20

The Problem with TPR ratings, particularly on a track like Keeneland, is that they don't add in deceleration.
__________________


Im sure you have facts to back that up with that TPR wont work on a polytrack.If that is is the case I have a simple solution dont play them.

Bill V. :

------------------------------------------------------------------
According to: Quirin and PaceAppraiser The Speed Points dictates the pace of the race - 6X0 indicates a slow pace with no pace pressure and fast finish.
This in turn projects a pace that would be controlled by an early type runner.
Because a horse has indicated that he has run his past running lines as a closer or presser but is up against a field that is virtually paceless or slow, does not mean that this horse will not try to run an early pattern in this type of race.

Gandalf380:
IF RDSS works for you, then keep using it. My choice would be PaceAppraiser and Synergism 4. I spoke to someone who has been playing professionally for the last 10 years and successfully maintains his living at the races and puts in about 80 hours per week doing this. He uses Synergism 6 and the data from HDW. the data is $100.00/month for all tracks and the program is free.

The (7) would be my pick as well but his projected odds and morning line indicates a small pay off if he wins. I would not bet this horse unless he were 4-1 or better at post time.

I use this race for learning purposes. I include myself in this learning process and anyone else that may benefit from it.

Hi Bill,

Slight correction...$139 per month for the Synergism HDW files and in order to try the program on upcoming races you must subscribe to 2 months worth of data ($278) initially.

Jim

Thanks Bill

If I understand this, since there are no 7 -8 QSP- nead the lead horses
the early pace will be slow, because the horse used less energy early
the race will run faster because the horses will have late energy and not decelerate as qiuckly therefore the final time will be fast ?

I will give the race a look

Bill

Shoeless:

I interpreted the statement made by Tim as being very constructrive.
I believe you have misinterpreted his intent and meaning.
I don't believe he ever said TPR would not work on a Polytrack surface.
He feels that decelaration should be factored in. This might very well be the case.
Synergism 4 does this and that's why I used it in this example.

Thanks, Tim

Bill V. That's a very asute interpretation of my statement.
I like the way you've explained it as well.
It's really a basically simple concept.
There are those put too much credibilty on how the horse ran prior to todays race and can't understand why a conceivable winner of a race won running against the grain and paid the big bucks.
Most players are conceptually locked into to what should be but will not use their G_D given gift of perception to piece out the puzzle of what may be. ;)
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Santa Anita - Race #2, April 12
 

Here's something I posted on Pace and Cap three years ago.

3 Year Olds -- Paceline Selection
For 3 Year Olds only

Dirt Races only:
1) Ignore turf pacelines -- pretend the race never happened
2) Ignore 4.5F pacelines -- pretend the race never happened
3) Select the *Best* of the last three dirt pacelines regardless of recency, track condition or beaten lengths.

*Best* = the paceline that shows up on the top of the BL/BL screen.

Find some three year old races you've already handicapped. Now go back and use these paceline guidelines. Did your results improve? You be the judge.


I agree with Partsnut that #7 Only Be Cause is the horse to beat in this race. However, odds permitting (unlikely) #5 or #4 would be my second choice in win betting. 7-5 would be the most probable exacta-box outcome. Note the opposing running styles.

This is the kind of discussion I have come to love and expect on this website. Too often on other horseracing forums, posts will just cause flaming attacks. I also took tim's post as very negative and can understand why shoeless made the response he did. However, partsnut took the high road in his response and that is something that is not always seen on internet forums. So to the users of this site, thank you and keep up the good discussion.

gandolph380:
Hi Neighbor, we live in very close proximity to each other.
I appreciate your compliment and now consider you as a quality person
and a friend.
It was my practice on my users group to maintain and demand respect for the poster and or user and avoid anyone flaming another. I had over 70 group members but because the participation was never really there, althought many said they enjoyed the group, I decided with lots of reservations to take it down. I did however make a lot of very good friends and appreciated whatever participation there was.
I have learned, and I say this with lot's of humility, that I have been guilty of what I now have a great distain for. Being a moderator over the past two years has taught me the meaning of respect for one another.
There are no stupid questions or opinions. We are all here for the same purpose.........to learn.

If I can be of some help to you or if you wish to converse, I'm easy to reach.

dr.horse@verizon.net
MSN instant messenger: bill_hirschman@msn.com

Bill and Charlie
 

Happy holiday weekend and great things to you both

If you model TPR, you do have deceleration figured in.
There is a chapter on it in the original book - the hardcover one.
It works very well.
Ask me how I know. ;)

I thought so
 

Hi Tom

I kind of felt that I mean basically Isn't TPR
the Sartin Methodolgy light ?
Didn't Doc say the idea of Total Pace Ratings were developed
because guys in the original group said that it was too hard to juggle too
many things and the methodology was too hard. Some one suggested trying to just juggle two things It was a easy way to wotk up to it Was TPR called Phase 1 ? yet
Phase III came out first.


Thanks
Bill

PS
When does Finger Lakes open :)