Del Mar Free Online Contest
 

Del Mar opens today/ contest starts today
http://www.dmtc.com/contest/

I like the #9 here , but he is the M/L fav unfortunately

Value plays would be the #8 and #11,

I see the 10 as only true early speed , but giving it up late the #9 and #8

My thoughts

Patrick

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyYZUhSeRYc

Scratch the 11 and replace with the 4

I like the #9 here , but he is the M/L fav unfortunately

Value plays would be the #8 and #4,

I see the 10, 4, and 8 as only true early speed , but giving it up late the #9

My thoughts

Patrick

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyYZUhSeRYc

I would like to know if there is play here for the #5, he blows away everyone in the segement screen, and is 3rd in BL/BL screen and the TPR screen is off the charts too, look at that blue line, maxed out, is this stuff that you look for and when you find it hammer it, (just asking as I have no real play here, just trying to learn ) This after re-doing and re-doing the race a few times and this 5 keeps showing up as a play, yet a race where he may well go up to over 20-1, as M/L is 10-1, and the 9 should be post time fav around 2-1 or less , and then the 4,8 and 10 are all live contenders to me,

I think there's a strong chance that's not a real line for #5 Flashmans. it was a fast pace, but he made only a modest move against it, and that's a VERY LATE E/L distribution...

Waiting...

Attachment 17180

Attachment 17181

Ted

Do we hide the favourite and bet the next 2?

Result

Attachment 17186

Thursday race 7 delmar contest
 

looks like a few prices here

5 winner, but most likely the fav, so hide

6 and 13 look to be value win bets, # 1 as back up for any scratches

7/23 del Mar 7th - Marathon
 

Here is one of the marathon races where I'm looking for the leader at the 1 mile mark. For an 11 furlong on the grass, this race is loaded with early horses. Here are the lines from RDSS:

Attachment 17197

Now to BL/BL:

Attachment 17198

The 8 has the right running style. That's my choice.

Tim Bedient

Holly Cow
 

Patrick ... Say you bet the 6 !!!:)

Well I have a winner in the #6 46.40


Tommorrow Race 8 Del Mar alw/oc80k 3yo 1 1/16 m T

Till tomorrow


after day 1 I was 828 out of 4623, room for improvment, yet 50 to win on the 6 should improve me a little, we'll see, very long way to go

I bet $50 to win on the 6 and $50 to show on the 13. I am working my way up in this contest.

Charged
 

Wow thanks

This race is going on the wall

"There is somebody"

Congrats and I wish you much luck and a little skill, or vice versa

Patrick New standing 171 with 1108 after 2 races

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyYZUhSeRYc

Congratulations to both Patrick and to Chris (clavezza)! You guys are rocking!

Ted

I checked the standings after results and I am now in 192nd Place. Still much more work to do to crack the top 100.

Nice work Patrick and Chris!!

Thank you
 

Spot Play

I added you too Mr Matcher :)

GS
Bill

OH THIS HURTS!!!

I just woke up to catch up on P&C...I like to use the posts here and pick my horse and watch the replays..
After seeing Pat's screens and using The Hats Marathon Play( which I always do) I selected the #6...

boo hoo it won and I was at work and missed this...

anyway nice capping and a nice price guys...

mike

tough one today 7/24 8th Del Mar
 

This one is tougher, as 3 yr old can be on the improve, as could be here with a few like the #3, 5 ,9 ,10 as the up and comers with little to look at , and i feel 3 , 9 or 10 could improve enough here to win, easily.

Then we have the 8 and 6 as legit contender's too, as the 8 loves the turf routes 3 for 3 itm, and the 6 is even better, this is a KAOS RACE, as I see at least 6 possible winners, and I could even be missing the winner altogether here.

Looks like the play may be 25.00 to win on 4 horses, (since we get 100 a race to be, wps only) , so the following in order

10, 8, 9, 6

My pick...#10

off slow last ..closed well

2 works since

maiden race ..easily by 6 lts at 1:07.3 in GB:eek:

mike

Hey Mike

I too like the 10 on top, but really halve the field could win this.

Now I need some advise please, In this tourney we get 100.00 a day to wager wps bets only so I know Sartin usaully goes for 2 horse bets, but this race to me is KAOS, too many evenly and unknown horses in here, a PASS Race, except the tourney is not a pass, so I was thinking 25 on 4 horses, or should I stick 100 on the 10, or 50 , 50 on the 10 and 8, just writing this here sounds stupid, step up and bet my way , That is what I will do, and will let you know before race time, no redboarding here, as witnessed over the 4th of July, I got killed, hit nothing, but this tourney I am paid both races so far but , we all know that can not and will not last, but with their money, who knows.

I see it this way ,what a way to learn , practice and share with others, they too will see how I handicap and if I got any chance at getting better and learn what you guys throw at me, as it will be 1 race a day for the entire meet, that means I am available to do some live plays on the other races at Del Mar is anyone would like to do a few races together, if not no biggie, the offer is always open, I love to learn this stuff....

Patrick

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyYZUhSeRYc

Patrick
My advice is to stick with your FIRST instinct on what to do regarding wagers. The first thing that hit you within. Do THAT and you will never be wrong even when you are.

Very best of luck/skill :)

Thanks Richie

I am most likely sticking to the 2 horse Sartin way, 10 and 8, 50 to win, M/L odds are 9/2 and 5-1, not too bad, may do a 1.00 box exacta of 6,8,9,10 for 12.00, the odds seem to be nice enough, who knows, but not the 25.00 to win on those horse's as I was thinking to do, even thou the odds would be nice enough on all to do the bets except the 6 at 7/2 the lowest of all M/L odds fo these horse's, we'll see.

wager for contest 10 and 8 50 win bets no looking back / confidence /

7/24 turf race
 

Most of the contenders have E/L's in single digits. I think based on the first few days that double digit negative E/L's are required. It worked in this case and in a few others so far this week. So beware contenders that come out on top of the BL/BL scores that don't have -10 or less E/L's.

For this reason, I think that the Eddie Read tomorrow goes to either the 3 or the 8 because the earlies will knock each other out. Also the 6 might fit that profile as well, but might be a little lower down the totem pole.

Good luck tomorrow,


Bill

My take is the 8 and 3 with maybe the 6. We'll see later in the day.

Good skill to everyone

Barb

first of many
 

Nice solid win $10.00 Plus

Good skill Barb :) # 8

and keep it going Pat !!!

Okay today brings a new thing into play, a Stakes Race, thus changing the rules a bit, at least with line selection, am I right here... I ask because the #8 has no recent lines but, going back 210 days to a 7fur poly race , just like todays race , he has a line, one that puts her into contention, but 210 days and 3 races ago, does that matter???

#3 has no sprints and nothing on poly but routes, hard to choose a line for her too, I took line 1 the most recent and on poly , but an 8.5 route , so it has no impact when put into play here, yet, something seems wrong here, thou, a gut feeling maybe

#4 2 for 2 poly sprints at hol, but how hard is it to get 3 for 3, especially last one was won by a nose, but speed rating is high enough to contend, is it not, please am I reading it right, I should be , but asking makes sure i am a 105 SR quailifies as contender does it not??

#6 a northern Cal horse, not always a good thing when brought down south, as they tend to be inferior too often, thou he was competitive in a G3 100 days ago at SA, so maybe this one is different, another contender with a 110SR at GG, ???

#11 keeps showing up to, but a major jump in class today, hardly yelling bet me thou, but is ITM all 3 starts, but can you see him winning this, not me, but he could pick up the pieces from a fast paced duel on the front, it is his style anyway, or am I wrong here too, please, let me know if I am, as I see this guy a closer, coming fast at the end

wagers before hand

#8 50 win
#4 25 win
#11 25win

Rolling
 

Pat..
Nice work amazing !!!

1st 11 EXCESSIVE BLEND $12.60 $7.00 $4.00
2nd 1 CHALULA ONE $9.20 $5.00
3rd 6 ULTRA BLEND $3.60
4th 8 SAUCEY EVENING

Good work Patrick. Keep hammering away!
:)

Thank you

Bill I try, really I do, but could still use some help, I am on a roll now , but we all know that doesn't last, don't we?

Thanks

patrick

The Eddie Read was won by the 8 and paid $30.20 and 13.00 . The tri paid975.40 for $2

Race #8 Del Mar 8.5 Turf

This is tough race too, looks like the 7 and 9, but then the 2 and 5 are dangerous too, and MISTER EARLY SPEED the #4 horses, with a few nice SR to go with him, not sure what to do here, really, a little help would be nice, as I lean towards the in order 7 , 2, 9

Patrick

http://www.singingfool.com/Title.aspx?publishedid=91870

Looks like you're doing well without much help. It seems you always have the winner within your picks. But if you want a little help, here it is. I picked the 5 in the contest, but I'm really stinking it up. Can't buy a winner. So leave out the 5.

Keep pluggin' away. I think you are doing great.

Chris

Thanks I appreciate it, I am looking at the following in order 7, 2, 9..

wagers 2 and 9 at 40.00
7 at 20.00

Patrick

A 20.00 wager winner at 8.60 for 86.00, a loss today, the odds dropped drastically after the wager was made, thus a loss occurred, when the wager was made odds were 8-1 , oh well

Patrick

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyYZUhSeRYc

Am I wasting time posting this here, not getting much breakdown on it, as I was looking to get some feed back on my lines and explanations of my interpretations of the program, rather right or wrong, I would welcome some feedback, I could have lost all races, but have not.

The last race I won but lost money, could I have done anything better, as it was 8-1 when I bet, and ended up the Fav I believe

My standings after 1st week

145 out of 5035 total 1306.50 for the week

Still a very long way togo, so I am going to be humble here if that is possible.

I been using the SR and TE as major factors, and then looking for the possible pace scenario's of todays runner's, thru Tandems an then guessing and need help here please, also using segements too, it helps show the pace scenario that the computer predicts, am I right?? well gotta go, hope to hear from some of you

Thanks
Patrick

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyYZUhSeRYc

Morning Patrick
Looks to me that you are getting a real handle on what you are doing. It is all about the horse/contenders and whatever you are doing keep it up!

Only possible advice I could give you would be on the WAGERING end of the equation:

Be decisive and act IMMEDIATELY on your very first impressions of:
1) Pass or Play
2) Who to bet

There is a quote I heard that fits here (for the life of me I cant remember the author)

"When you sit, sit. When you stand, stand. Don't wobble"

Be decisive Patrick and act right away on your first impressions.

Great results after week 1 :)