RDSS in action
 

So I got interested in Pace handicapping in the last year or so, and came across this website about 10 months or so ago. Ted allowed me to download the beta and got the retail version in Feb09.
I have had mixed success with it. Some bad, some good. I was following the selections and posting my own for a while, but to be honest found myself placing more bets than I normally would. That, and the fact that I took a new position at work that had me traveling 10 straight weeks, kind of relegated me to the status of weekend warrior for handicapping.
I play mostly southern cal tracks, since this is where I live, but occasionally will jump into Monmouth, Saratoga, if I want a full day of horsey goodness.
In the past 3 months, I have had a lot of close scores. missed an 18k pick 4 at Hollywood about 6 weeks ago in a photo, got 5/6 on a pick six that paid 380k at Del Mar a few weeks back, where I missed on the leg I went the deepest on, etc.. I am sure most handicappers have a lot of these stories.
Today RDSS and I put it together at Del Mar. I am posting this mainly for those people who use this program or are starting to use this program and wondering if it works. It takes a while, probably more than the 10 months I have been using it, but I think it can help a person's pace handicapping.

Below are my screen shots from RDSS for the Del Mar pick six on 082209. I will say a few things about my bet in general:
- I normally only play the pick 6 when there is a carryover or a guarantee of more than 500k. Today there was a carryover at Del Mar for 110k, making the likely pot of 800k-1,000,000 for the pick six.
- I have an account that allows me to play a $1 pick6 bet instead of the normal $2. I am sure most of you can figure this out.
- I will only play the pick 6 if I can get at least 2 singles in my ticket, keeping my cost down.
- I use a combination of the Selections Tab, and the BL tab on RDSS to make my picks. Have to give some props to Tim Y here, as he has posted his version of the RDSS selections tab, to show pace at the 1st/2nd call, etc.. I have found this tab to be quite accurate at times, and I analyze this tab every race now.

So here is Race 5, the first leg of the pick 6. My selections 2,9.

Results
POS Finisher Win Place Show
1st 2-Bye Bye Hollywood $11.40 $4.60 $3.20
2nd 9-Sticky Candy - $3.00 $2.40
3rd 8-Cardiff Giant - - $2.40

Race 6. - My selections 9,2,1
Results
POS Finisher Win Place Show
1st 2-Pearl Fisher $18.20 $7.80 $4.80
2nd 1-Viscount - $4.40 $3.20
3rd 4-Mr. Hot Stuff - - $3.60

Race 7. My first single is the 8, ran a good 1st race, bunch of firsters. I normally single these races, or go deep because of all the unknowns.

Results
POS Finisher Win Place Show
1st 8-Sidney's Candy $3.80 $2.60 $2.20
2nd 1-Who's Up - $6.60 $5.60
3rd 2-Oceanographer - - $3.40

Race 8. The GR1 Del Mar Oaks. I went deep here. Using the 1,5,6,7,9. I used the 9 only because Alex Solis was on the 7, who I considered a contender, and chose to ride the 9 instead. None of the these horse was a GR1 winner, and overall I thought the race was pretty wide open. Didn't think the 5 was a cinch at even money.

Results
POS Finisher Win Place Show
1st 1-Internallyflawless $15.80 $8.20 $4.80
2nd 2-Nan - $21.00 $8.40
3rd 5-Well Monied - - $2.60

Race 9. Another wide open event in my opinion. One in which I didn't see a whole lot of speed. My selections 1,4,5,6,8,11

Some may look at this and wonder why I didn't have the 7. The second screen shot here, shows the increase in energy between the horses last two starts. 155 to 163. I considered this horse a large bounce candidate, and in the end, he didn't make the cut.

Results
POS Finisher Win Place Show
1st 8-Flirting For Love $24.00 $12.20 $6.40
2nd 6-Frankelstein - $7.60 $5.80
3rd 1A-Esporte Dos Reis (Brz) - - $2.80

Last Race, and my 2nd single. The 6 horse. Another Maiden Race on the Turf. My personal opinion is that it is very difficult to win for firsters on the turf. At Del Mar this year, I found a little stat in my reading this morning that out of the 25 or so Maiden Races on the Turf, only 2 have been won by first time starters.
The 9 horse had some works coming up to this that made him a threat, but the 6s last race made him the one to beat.

Results
POS Finisher Win Place Show
1st 6-Tamarack Smarty $3.40 $2.20 $2.10
2nd 9-Amazombie - $3.60 $3.20
3rd 8-Absolutlypositivly - - $3.60
4th 11-Rented Cop - - -
10-Leyva Man - - -
$2.00 DOUBLE 8/1 $27.00
$2.00 DOUBLE 8/6 $57.60
$1.00 EXACTA 6-9 $5.50
$2.00 QUINELLA 6-9 $7.60
$1.00 TRIFECTA 6-9-8 $30.90
$1.00 SUPERFECTA 6-9-8-11 $220.10
$0.10 SUPERFECTA 6-9-8-11 $22.01
$1.00 SUPERHIGHFIVE 6-9-8-11-10 $768.10
$1.00 PICK 3 3 of 3 1/8/1 $133.70
$1.00 PICK 3 3 of 3 1/8/6 $373.40
$1.00 PICK 4 4 of 4 3,4,8/1/8/1,4,6,12,13 $439.90
$2.00 PICK 6 6 of 6 2/2/3,4,8/1/8/1,4,6,12,13 $35399.60

I will say that in the last race, the 6 was paying 46k in the pk6, which would have paid my $1 bet 23k + the 5s, but the 1 got loose at the gate and was a late scratch, giving everyone with the 1 the 6 who was the favorite. Cost me 5k+ that horse getting loose like that as the end result was 35k instead of 46k.

My total ticket was $180. Today it just all came together. I hope all you folks at Saratoga tomorrow for Pace and Cap day have the same luck I had today :o)

Cheers
Jim

EDIT: I see the wrong pick on Race 7... it is below... not much there because of all the firsters.

This is so cool!

Congratulations!

Wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

that is a tremendous score "JLG"!!!

Awesome work and the best part is there is MORE as a friend used to tell me at the Meadowlands years ago.

Sincere congrats and best wishes:)

great jlg...:)

question:

cau u tell us your criteria for picking pacelines...in most races it looks like u went best of last 4??? but in the second leg , your all over the PP's

thxs and congrats again...


p.s- did u quit your job? :rolleyes:

mike

Hello.
This is great... I. read in the follow ups all the
time about successful wins
Thanks for the pick up inspiration

:eek: Really Nice score!!

JLG,
Great score and very helpful insight you gave for your picks. I'd like to see you do some more.
Ira

Jim,

Great work, you have been very diligent this year and it has been rewarded! Thanks for your detailed analysis, and I second Ira's notion to see more of it!

Congratulations,

Ted

Awesome , Man.

Keep it up , let's read about many more.

Patrick

Really good score... :-)

I am interested in the PaceLine Selection as well.

Thank you for all the well wishes. Didn't quit my job, perhaps if there were a few more zeros at the end of the payout I would have.

As far as pace line selection, I am somewhat still finding what works for me. I have read a lot of the articles, but here are the basics

- I almost always start off with more than one pace line (again, Tim Y gets some props) for each horse if they are available. Later in my analysis, I will whittle it down many times because I don't think the projected pace will fit that race, the horse is going off form, etc..
- I am not afraid to go back more than 3 or 4 races, particularly if a horse is coming into their 2nd or 3rd race off a long layoff, and is improving in energy and %med.
- Turf I use pizzolo method, or at least my understanding of it. At least that is my starting point.
- I leave horses in the selections that I think have no shot, mostly because I want to see if they will effect the early pace to make an E type contender vulnerable.
- Some of it is non rdss and pace line related. Alex Solis going to the 9 horse in the Del Mar Oaks for example (which didn't pan out, but I considered it enough to use that horse). I also own a horse or two at times with some friends, and we have gotten to know many of the trainers and assistant trainers in southern Cal. I am not afraid to give them a call to get their opinions, particularly on maidens and first timers.

I will say it is unorthodox, as I am still finding my way sometimes, and race two is a good example of that. The race was on the poly track, but I used a turf line on the #2 horse. I did this mainly because the horse was improving, in my opionion, even if it was on the turf. I couldn't find any poly lines that looked like they would fit, and turf form has transferred to the poly track. I put him in there.

Another great example of someone who understands BOTH sides of the equation: handicapping and the lost art of translating that information to WAGERING technique

Good moves in both arenas.

great job!!