Personal Wagering Strategy
 

This is my personal wagering strategy. It allows me to avoid playing too many races; It gives more free time to other activities, and my dogs. This is having
my cake, and eating it too.

In the past, my preferred wagers were win/place, exactas, and p4's. Since i
like to cherry pick from 3 or more tracks to find good wagers, I decided to
create the wagering plan CORA.

The acronym CORA means "Crush One Race A day". You may wager in dollar increments, or whatever level your bankroll will allow. Personally, i like $10
win/place bets, $1 tri part-wheels, $1 supers and $10 exacta keybox wagers.

The amount to wager is a personal issue. you decide!

The only type races i will use for wagering are races with a "lone early" or a
"lone ote" . The key horse's post time odds has to be 3-1 or higher. If this
condition doesn't exist, I don't wager . There are always races tomorrow.

I use the key in key-box exactas, 1st and 2nd in trifectas and supers.

As an example check the 7th race at Calder 08-23-09.

The #6 was "lone early". #2 and #8 were scratched. This left #'s 1-3-4-5-6-7-9. #3 and #5 are throwouts based on current races.
We are left with #'s 1-4-6-7-9. #6 is the lone early key.

The crush would be assembled in this manner. $2 win/place #6
$2 exacta key-box #6 w 1-4-7-9 = $16
$1 tri key #6 w 1-4-7-9 with 1-4-7-9 = $12
$1 tri key 1-4-7-9 with #6 with 1-4-7-9 = $12
$1 super #6 with 1-4-7-9 with 1-4-7-9 with 1-4-7-9 = $24
$1 super 1-4-7-9 with #6 with 1-4-7=9 with 1-4-7-9 = $24

this an example of the plan.

bob cochran :)

I just CRUSHED a race today. I had a win bet on a $28 horse and I hit the exacta, $230, with a 2 horse box. So,that would be > 55:1 on the exacta.
A few weeks ago, I also CRUSHED a 2 number $150 exacta. That would be
> 35:1. These are examples of CRUSHES. To CRUSH means you actually have an OPINION on a race and you bet your balls. The lesser the number of combos, the stronger the opinion, and the MORE you can bet.

Playing 20 combos or so is indicative of not having an opinion and having to settle for a 3:1 return sort of bears that out. I don't take 3:1 on a win bet. And if I did, even though it'd show that at least I had an opinion and the balls to bet a single horse, I certainly wouldn't consider it a crush.

Just trying to get clear on terminology here.:rolleyes:

Of course it is. It represents a clear picture of sensitive dependence upon initial conditions, the ESSENCE of what the majority of all races are: VARIABLE contingencies that the wise investor compares to the probabilities offered and COVERS them adequately.

To look at a race, ANY RACE, as having a SINGLE outcome is the illogical thing to do. The reason odds vary, and the way one plays them is what this game is ALL ABOUT.

Tfm
 

Apparently you missed the point of the post. The point was not how much money was made, but the manner it was accomplished. You didn't mention any
trifecta or superfecta wagers. The point was to take advantage of all wagers
provided by the race.

A crush to a $2 bettor would be different than a crush made by a $100 bettor.

good luck ,
Bob Cochran :)

no I didn't miss anything: extract as much as you can as many ways as you can out of the races you understand

Sorry as I agreed with you now TWICE.........Misread a few word: old glasses

TimY
 

No problem Tim Y. My reply was directed to tfm.

Oh well, i guess CORA might be too complicated for "big hitters"

Bob Cochran :)

Bob,

Thanks for sharing your wagering strategy.

:>)

Bob, I must echo David in saying thank you very much for sharing your wagering strategy. I can appreciate your approach.

All the BEST!

Vinnie :)

Bob,
Do your records indicate that your success comes more from:
1 - early
2 - ote
3 - evenly split

FtL
 

The OTE in sprints usually produce the best results for me. The Lone E horses
tend to be less reliable, especially in route races (the exception being Calder).

Bob Cochran :)

Pirco's Finest!
 

Thanks Bob for sharing!
Reminds me a bit of MP strategy. Keep your powder dry but when you find something good fire with both barrels (staying of course within % of bank to avoid ruin)

RichP
 

Hi Richie. I hope your'e matching well, and in good health.

The main difference between Michael and myself is: After i wager on one race,
I'm done for the day. It might produce a loss, or it might produce a pile of cash.
My racing day is over. On with my life. Michael may have many more races he invests in, he has no limit. My bank will be 3 to 5 hundred, but his might be 3 to 5 thousand.

As you stated, it is wise to wager % of bankroll. Doc used to be fond of saying, Bob Purdy bets 100 % of bankroll LoL! Bob liked one way exactas.

I think the CORA wagering strategy would fit you like a glove Richie. This was
my thought when i devised it.

continued success Richie,
Bob Cochran :)

Bob, thanks for sharing a very helpful approach. I clearly has a lot of merit to help maximize the return from certain races.

While, I understand the concept of lone early horses I don't have a good understanding how how a lone ote gets defined. I've done searches on this site and through notes I keep and I'm drawing a blank. Can you (or anyone) please point me in the right direction or provide an explanation and/or examples.

Thank you.

fasthorses
 

My description of a "lone ote" horse would be a race with the majority of the
running styles being listed as Early" , and there is either a lone sustained (S)
horse , or a lone other than early horse, such as a lone EP.

hope this makes it a bit clearer.

Bob C:)

Morning Bob
Just for clarity the styles you refer to are energy based (computer generated) or visual?

Thanks and keep rocking :)

RichP
 

Good question Rich.

I determine the running styles by visual observation. The computer generated
running styles have too wide a range for me.

BobC:)

Fasthorses
 

Earlier i defined "lone ote". a good example would be the 3rd race at Ellis Park today. The only horse who qualifies as lone ote is the #2 horse.

The rest of the field either have to have the lead, or they are non-contenders.
I looked at the race , but never imagined the #2 horse would pay dble-digits.

This is strictly an example of 1 type lone ote. I didn't bet the race
ps, go to equibase and peek at the charts for the race.
This might make sense of the definition.

BobC:)

I've been using a similar approach. I call it the "Odd Sox" running style. It could the lone E-EP-P-PS-or S. If there are a majority of 1 or 2 running styles present in a race and only 1 "odd sox" style, it's usually a play.

It works best for me when I use my eyeball scan on the racing form to determine the running styles rather then rely on a computer generated one.

Intrepid
 

Eyeball scan and the MatchUp is a good combo.
Have you followed Richie's MatchUp lessons given by the "Hat" ?
It will improve your game.
BobC:)

Thank you all. I'll follow your ideas and work with them to try to get a better feel to how best to work with this concept.

Hey Bob

I been away a bit , but it was nice to see that , even though this site is very "Prim and Proper", which is a good thing , it was nice to see someone with that " Killer instinct ", but I have a few questions if you do not mind, please?

It seems that you play very few races a day, and may go a few days without a play, great discipline and worth noting, as my discipline is still being aquired, but lets not stay focused here, Do you have a win percentage on these ,"Single Hammer Wagers", when you actually play them?

Also is there an average muteul return, or do you keep those records, just curious?

It seems that to play your wagers it is about 100.00 per race , if you do this

The crush would be assembled in this manner. $2 win/place #6
$2 exacta key-box #6 w 1-4-7-9 = $16
$1 tri key #6 w 1-4-7-9 with 1-4-7-9 = $12
$1 tri key 1-4-7-9 with #6 with 1-4-7-9 = $12
$1 super #6 with 1-4-7-9 with 1-4-7-9 with 1-4-7-9 = $24
$1 super 1-4-7-9 with #6 with 1-4-7=9 with 1-4-7-9 = $24


That is not an unsually high amount , considering that I used to play Pick 4 and Pick 3, and could easily spend 100 a race, except I went horizontal instead of vertical, but spent the same and lose a lot, and yet would always have 1-2 if not 3 out of 4 horses and that would include my odds horse most of the time, and would definetly like to try sweeping the vertical wagers of a race, I think it would be a great boost to my confidence to hit 1-2 of these a week.


Bob I have a few more questions , but will hold them for later and see if you'd be willing to answer them, as I can get real inquisitive and have been trying to keep this passion from becoming too much too soon, patience and practice are my newly aquired traits that I got from this board, which I like very much.

Again thanks for your post Bob.

Many many winning days wished your way

Patrick
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyYZUhSeRYc

PKtruckdriver
 

Hello Patrick.

Yes i keep records Patrick, but i don't discuss avg. mutuel for obvious reasons.
As I stated in the original CORA wagering plan. i like $10 exacta key-boxes
my win-place bets are higher than $2, and my 'crush" hit rate is about 1 out of 4.

My stats are really not important because you may handicap entirely different
from myself. Your stats will be based on how well you keep records and
know the strengths and weaknesses of the tracks at which you wager.
You definitely have to know, what it takes energy-wise, to win at a given
track.

Crushing a race is great, but because you fail to "crush it" doesn't mean
there was no profit from the race. The goal is to make a profit in the race.

The starting bankroll depends on the individual's working capital, and the
ability to stay within one's "comfort zone" will maintain the bankroll .

The only way to validate any wagering plan is through "your" work and
record keeping.

good luck Patrick
Bob C:)

Yes sir , I noticed that question was too personal after reading it, I guess my new found skills here need to be practiced plenty before crushing things anytime soon, though on paper I will be crushing away, 3-1 or higher, not much different than Doc's suggestion or Jim's and anyone else here, and like I nailed the 7th race at Del Mar on July 23rd and the payouts would made my year, or halve it anyway..


Win 46.40 Place 17.80

1.00 Exacta 153.80

1.00 Tri 1,852.40

1.00 super 12,642.60

That would been a crush to savor, and a horse I would have done so with, it stood out that much, even in my short time here, that horse beckoned me to bet him, you ever get that here, I guess that will become more prevalant here, as time goes by...

Again thanks and good luck Sir

patrick

Patrick
 

Man , that was some kind of payoff. If you played the one race for the day,
and collected on all levels, that's a days work.

nice hit Patrick;
continued success
BOB C :)

Yes sir it would've been nice if Iplayed your CORA, but only had 10 to win, still okay as it came in handy for me, but I can see where your way only needs one really good hit and plenty of profit for sure, probally the most coverage for your money.

Did you have the AP 9th race you put up, if so you'd have had a hit almost like mine above,as you did very well, the exacta and tri, no super, but the other 2 paid very well.

Patrick

Hi Patrick. Yes , i had the 9th at AP. The idea behind the "chaos races" was to
indicate the profitibility of races whether you pick the winner or not. There is money to make at several layers in a race. The less predictable a race becomes,
the higher the odds. You won't catch them all, but you don't have to.

also read my comments on the #1 horse in the summation. Would you thorw this horse out entirely going for the super ?

again, nice wagering on your part Patrick.

Bob C:)

I see then that the ole 4 horse underneath is not written in stone, if you must add another then do so , but only if you are comfortable with it $$ wise that is, do you ever all the 3rd or 4th spot in the super, or do you always eliminate a few horses easily enough, thus saving some wager monies?

I do so love the concept,and would love to learn more, any time any where, and thanks again, as my wager for my free 25.00 scratched, so I decided why noy try yours , thanks , you spoke so highly of it and had such confidence I figured why not CORA, now to learn about OTE, lone speedster's or such, my wortk is cut out for me,where do I start??

patrick

Patrick
 

What i normally do when preparing a wager is try to decide how many layers
with how many horses. 7 horses total is the norm. After eliminating down to 5
i figure which one will run no worse than 2nd, i add on according to running
style and the median energy #'s.

If it is determined the race will run Early, i use OTE's in the 3rd and 4th slot
If it is determined the race will run OTE, i use the best Earlys in the 3rd and 4th
slot. This is easier to do in the better races, and more complicated in the
cheaper races.

Bob C:)

Bob

You make this sound so easy and simple, where have I been all these years, I came here to learn how to figure out the pace of the race, to find how the race would set-up and who would be where at the end of it, and not so much the winner, but knowing which 2 have the ability today to win, and you have it narrowed down a little further.

Your logic as Spock would say is "pure delight " to my ears, like when she said yes for the 1st time feeling, it can be that simple can't it?

Now my mission/job/homework , what ever I call it, is to learn how to distuingish what you stated above, Early's and OTE's , and Median Energy's and find out if I have a race that fits the profile we are looking for, which is , Chaos races, is it ?? Value Races ??

Man so many questions , but let me keep it simple here, by the BOB, this is great stuff thank you, it gives me a focused approach to this game, and then with CORA to slam the door on it, and do so with so much confidence, that feeling must be great, risk versus reward, but the more we know of the risk the easier it is to deal with and adjust to it, there fore almost eliminating the Risk, beautiful and simple, wow...

Patrick