Canadagoose une bonne nuit à Mountaineer
 

Got these from Barb C working Mnr last night :)

Best of last 3 comparable then hiding to top 5 and hunting for value bets.

:)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3X9LvC9WkkQ

Good Work
 

Very good Barb and or Rich :)

Not sure who won but Its real good :)

Bill

lol morning Bill!
It was all Barb as I am on the sidelines :)

Yes Richie and Barb, it was a good nite

i finally had a nite off and played MTR

Hiding the favorites did quite well , but you forgot race # 8,the 4 won and paid
$10.40...my line selections was choosing a competitive finish like 1,2,3 or losing by less than 3 lts vs a fast pace race anywhere in the PP

example:

4-3 4-2 3-1 1st-1 23.2 47.3 113.2

3-1 3-1 2.1 2- 1 1/2 23.0 47.0 113.1

I would choose the second line , even though line 1 was a win...line 2 was vs a faster pace race

Race 8

Thanks Bill. I was just seeing what would happen by hiding the favorites who were at such low odds. I only intended to do a couple of races, but got sucked into staying on for five.

Hi Mike. I was tempted to go on to race 8, but I know my limitations. Did you bet the 4?

Yes Barb....I had a couple of those winners :cool:

mike

Esp
 

Hi Mike

I notice how well you did entering the ESP / running style
I like what your doing using what is called PLUS running lines

1st 2nd 3rd or well against a fast pace also finishing better than half the field

Something anyway

GS
Bill

Hi Mike,

Your post is very interesting. Are you having long term sucess with this or was this a trial baloon?

Thanks,
Budman

Hey Bud...With me nothing is long term :mad:...my job is usually in the afternoon, so I cant get up to the minute odds or that important scratched horse.
I prefer the Match-Up but when I get lazy I crank up RDSS and let it do its thing :).
The main thing with any method or software is line selection. I chose using Mr Bradshaws concept of finding the "power line" anywhere in the horses PP. Most use the best of the last 3 races but I see the further you go down the bigger the odds ;)..is the horse in form?...well its gotta be your call.
I hate favorites , so when Barb finally put up her technique ( via Richies help) on how she used RDSS with the 2 horse betting ..I adopted it for myself.
I cannot say long term for me but I believe Barb is doing fine.

mike

thxs Bill...I tried to call it as I saw it with the ESP...
but its strange as RDSS called the #4 as "early/presser" and no where in the PP did he wire them...as the race unfolded ..he did a wire job!! still scrathing my head

mike

Goose patrol
 

In all seriousness, last year we had a goose patrol in the infield to keep the pesky little opportunists away from the race course as we had a few meander on the track causing a horse to swerve and wind up disqualified. A fellow in a four wheel ATV chased them all over.

We do have natural control as a coyote lives out near the clubhouse turn, but the shear numbers of them out does what old Wylie can keep under control.

As they loaded in the gate one day this season, there was about 7 of them ON the track at the finish line which required a few of us to shoo them away just before the field got there.

My brother is a landscaper in Oregon and he employed coyote decoys on a lake front property to deter geese (realistic foam decoys from Cabellas). It has also been used on a few goose-laden golf courses in Northern California on a rotation basis to keep the pesky critters from totally greening up the place.

Early
 

Hi Mike

I entered # 4' sprint races into KGEN
These are raw numbers and this is the energy generator According to
this the horse is an early horse. Its using its med. energy in the high 69-70
area Its third fractions are near 30.00 which means it had better
have a lead or run when using its energy less early or else it will have trouble
against better horses If RDSS says Wild is and EP than it is I don't know why maybe they take the DTV an ITV into the calculations

Bill

Hi Mike, hope everything is going well. I'm not going to pick on you here, but your post presented me with a forum, so I decided to use it. :) Wherever I use "you" I am using it in the "general sense".

The main thing with any method or software is line selection. Without question, this is the most important and yet the most abused item.
I chose using Mr Bradshaws concept of finding the "power line" anywhere in the horses PP. First, I don't know what a "power line" is, but somehow or another, I have a feeling it ends up being the highest speed rating in the PP's for the horse or something akin to that.
Most use the best of the last 3 racesBest of last three distance/surface is the methodology standard, but I don't agree with that. Why would you go back three races if there is a line to use two back or last race? Just because the speed rating is higher?
but I see the further you go down the bigger the odds Ok, here's my take on this. This type approach is like going out searching for the ducks, rather than sitting in a blind and waiting for the ducks to come to you! If you use a sensible line selection method using recent lines and forget about highest speed rating, going back 8,9,10 lines hoping to somehow snag a longshot, the longshot will come to you. You can't MAKE a longshot win. They win when they win.
..is the horse in form?...well its gotta be your call. Alright, if you are having that much trouble with recent pace line selection, how on earth do you expect to determine if the horse is "in form" today when you have chosen a pace line 8,9,10 races back? If the horse hasn't run back to line 9 in the last 8 races, why should it run back to that line today? Just because you hope it does since the odds are currently 10-1?
I hate favorites , so when Barb finally put up her technique ( via Richies help) on how she used RDSS with the 2 horse betting ..I adopted it for myself. Throwing out the favorite isn't exactly a technique. It's more of a statement, "the hell with it, I'm throwing out the favorite!" If you are just blindly going to throw the favorite out just for the sake of throwing it out because the odds are too low, don't even bother putting it in. The way I see it, you put the favorite in so you can see if there is a "legitimate" reason for betting against it. An example would be, that your betting model indicates the favorite's strong points are not what is winning based on your model. If the favorite matches your betting model, do you really want to throw it out? I mean, why are you doing the work if you don't trust the work you do? There is such a thing as "passing a race".
Finally, if all you are going to do is scan the PP's of each horse in the race and use the highest speed rating for line selection, don't even bother using software! (sorry Ted, just making a point) There are five races in this thread. Go look at them. Although these were not necessarily sorted on "speed rating", look at the speed ratings for each horse. With just a couple of exceptions (and these came AFTER the first couple of horses) they ARE in speed rating order. I mean, total energy and speed rating are joined at the hip! You don't need a computer program to tell you who the fastest horse is base on final time. Track Profiles and Betting Decision Models are the tools you use to help you with betting decisions. Use them, correctly, and see how they help.

Heck,
horse #4 and the connections are screaming "BET ME"
Jock Parker 2009 = 20%
Trainer Shanyfelt = 36%
last race 4.5f on turf a training excercise.
since Shanyfelt took over the horse, he did rise the horse in class every race from 5k nw2l to 5k open last race. Since the horse has won 4 out of five times, and my trainer model did give me some preliminary indications on how Shanyfelt move his horses when is ready to fire, I asked myself this question, is this horse in form or what?
I agree with FTL statement. Handicapping isn't just the best of last 3 races or the highest speed ratings, handicapping is more than that.
I enclose the trainer model, the blue cells will give an indication how ready was the trainer to fire, and the red cells are the icing on the cake.
I double my money, just playing the ex. 1-3-4-5

hide
 

Hello Barb
In reference to one of FTL'd
Do you actually hide/scratch the favorite
Or do you I guess the better word would be
Ignore the fav or low odds horse

Back in the day I had great success working
races in the same manner as you are
I was able to watch the tote
And ignore horses with odds that would
pay less than 5/2
I would not hide them that is take them out
Of the match up but I would ignore them
And bet two other horses in my top 3-4
Blbl.
Best method I could recommend is what your
doing ...
Wish I had the time again
Bill

Hi Guys..

Thanks for your input FTL, Bill and Pino( I know u like Mountaineer).
FtL your absolutely right in what your saying...but there is one reason why I can bet this without any regrets...
This is Moutaineer , where the feature race is a 7500 non-winners of 2 lifetime..LOL Horses can reverse form at a drop of a dime!!
Now, if I was at a classy track it would more difficult to drop the top horse.

thxs

mike

Hi Mike,

I hear you. I prefer all the "cheapies" and never play what would be considered "classy tracks".
Talk about CHEAP. Years ago DOVER DOWNS use to have thoroughbred races. They had $1,000 claimers!!! Hell, if you bet a horse and it lost, you could reach in your pocket and claim the "@$&#" the next time out, take it home and shoot it if you wanted to! lol
Here's my take on "classy tracks". They're "pure vanilla".
CHEAP tracks, on the other hand, offer more "flavors"! You just have to learn what each flavor is and how the horses react to them. Here's an example. A horse wins a NW2L race. The next race for NW3L it's up the track. The next race it is back in the NW3L condition and it wins. Was the horse really out of form for just one race? Nahhhh. It was just trying a new flavor for the first time. ;)

LMAO at that one FTL....

Duck hunting = sitting in a 'blind' and waiting for them
 

Same thing with longshots. You just sit and wait for them. You don't go out looking for the ducks do you?

For any of you that have MNR for Friday night 9/18, here’s a case of a longshot coming to you.

Race 6, I find only 3 horses with lines, they are #2, #5 and #6

Let’s look at the rest of the field.
#1- no race at similar dist/surf in last 90 days (I’m not going back to the WO race 8 months ago)
#3- last race is the only race at similar dist/surf in last 90 days, horrible
#4- no race at similar dist/surf last 90 days
#7 - only one race at similar dist/surf last 90 days, last race (I can’t use it)
#8 – 2 races at similar dist/surf last 90 days, lines 1 & 2 ( I can’t use them)
#9 - 3 races at similar dist/surf last 90 days, line 1,2,& 3 ( I can’t use them)
#10 – no race at similar dist/surf last 90 days

That’ll do it. There are only 3 horses. If you can’t get the #5 as one of your two horses to bet at 15.60 – 1, shame on you.
Here is an example of WAITING for the longshot that just walks right up to you and says “bet me”. Beats the hell out of going out and looking for one.

Yes FTL...That was a nice one...

also with that $33 winner in the 6th..2 horse betting got me the 5th and 7th races winners($11 & $8.60) :D

Now its back to work and I wont be home in the evening till Tues :mad:

good luck guys and see you then

mike

hide
Hello Barb
In reference to one of FTL'd
Do you actually hide/scratch the favorite
Or do you I guess the better word would be
Ignore the fav or low odds horse

Back in the day I had great success working
races in the same manner as you are
I was able to watch the tote
And ignore horses with odds that would
pay less than 5/2
I would not hide them that is take them out
Of the match up but I would ignore them
And bet two other horses in my top 3-4
Blbl.
Best method I could recommend is what your
doing ...
Wish I had the time again
Bill


Bill You're right. I don't actually hide the favorite at less than 5/2, I'll take it out to see if the next tiers stay the same or change, then put it back in and ignore it if tier 2 or 3 are good enough odds to warrant a bet and will do a 2 horse bet or a win place, or pass if odds aren't good enough. For me if there is a strong favorite, the odds have to be 7/1 or better to bet against the favorite. After all, there's more than a 50% chance the favorite will lose.

Updated "Goose" / Has been betting real cash now
 

Barb has been hiding the favs when she has decided to play against for WIN. She has also been betting real cash which is great.
Her biggest win the last week or so was a 62 buck BOMB at Wdb where the winner was 5th tier but after HIDING the favorite who she definitely wanted to play against the winner jumped to tier THREE and at 30/1 was automatic bet for her.

Here are 2 race screen shots from yesterdays action along with her betting decisions that I got this morning.

I have attached the screen shot for Barb's 4th line $47.00 BOMB winner at Mnr. I would have liked to see her grab that big exacta too.
It is right there but no exacta bet was made.

Also attaching her notes/ comments to me. Trifectas Barb ha!

:)

Hi Guys..

These posts always makes me smile..

Just a short while ago , Barb knew nothing about horse racing...

and look at her now!!!

Rich ...another great project completed

Both of you should be proud...I love you both

Analysis:

Have you looked at when u hide the favorites that they are mostly lines 2-3 or maybe 4th down.....What happened in the last line...hmmm..has the horse gone off form and will it take some sort of time or a signal to show up for him to get back in form...is that line your using RED, can he duplicate it again..is it so far from his Green or Yellow lines that he wont ever do it again??
Epically doing lesser tracks, horses take more time to recover


has anyone did a analysis on this subject?


mike

Hi Mike
The only thing I can say off the top of my head is that yes, the hide are often 3,4 or 5th down.

I've been watching these two tracks. They seem to run in cycles. Last week nothing came up in the top three or four, but the last three days, just put in the best of the last three lines from RDSS and they all show up in the top 5.