PEN - Nov 24
 

Working some races at Penn National tonight with Barb C and sq764, hopefully a bit of a tutorial for sq and some fun and profits for Mum and me :)

All are welcomed to chime in, with emphasis on explaining line selection, contender analysis and wager decisions, if possible, thanks!

Race #1

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Re #5 horse: used line #5, seeking a similar distance to today. Last was also 6f, but slower than capable of and no reason not to suspect still in same shape. Intervening races were short routes, 2nd back lead thru stretch and finished in top half.


Will check back closer to post. Using the live toteboard for additional guidance. No clue as to track/energy biases. Anyone?

Ted

Race #2
4.5 f
Lot of Early pressure

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Race #3
8.3f route - only 1 proven router (#7)

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Used #7's best ever sprint line as all others will be projected from their few sprint efforts. His last line route does him no favours, but those last 2 routes show his E/L balance as slightly Early (lone Early energy distribution). So, downgrade his top status a bit and he looks somewhat equal to the #2. One drawback to the #7 is - whether you use the last line route of the 4th line sprint, he's no better than 3rd ranked Total Energy - worrisome for a supposed top BL/BL.

Let's check the odds...

Race #4

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Tricky distance
 

Hi Ted,

Not so hot at reading this level of racing - I believe actual handicapping may be required. But I kind of like the 4 to wire this field, although not at those odds. I would also play him over the 3 and 6, and maybe play the 6, at those odds, as a value bet. BTW, this is the track where you can bet after the race starts, so do you mind if I change my bet after the break :-)?

3
 

Difficult to look past at that price.

Race #1

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Wager decision: Win bets on #2 and #8, palce bet on #8
Exacta Box on 2,4,8

8 faced strongest 2nd call Pace of Race in both of its last 2 races. Good excuse for last...

Race #1

#7 wins in the slop. #1 APV. Otherwise...

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Race #2

Win bets on #4 and #5 (at the odds).
Exacta Box on 2,4,5

Minor bet.

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BJ, I talked myself out of the 6, and the #4 was held higher when I bet it...

I'll put in another bet halfway through the race ;)

Race #2

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Race #3

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Probably no bet... #2 and #8 have never routed. Don't want to guess. #7 no value now.

Agree
 

I just don't bet these.

Race 3
 

Hello Ted Barb Scott and all

Nice $14.00 winner # 2
2 - 8 exacta

Race #3
For the record - if you want to hold your nose and apply classic wagercapping (i.e. hide a prohibitive favourite and bet the bet 2 for win):

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Thanks Bill - I handicapped myself out of that one!

Race #4,

BJ, if you're touting the #3, well now, it's starting to look more interesting in the slop. This is a Socal horse - never heard of a wet track before. And it's not a front-runner. What will it do when drenched in mud. At 4/5 currently, it's taking down a lot of money...

Ted

Race 4
 

Odds on the 3 have been destroyed. No bet.

Race #4 refigured

For better or worse, I'm betting against the #3 for the above reasons (and because the 7/5 odds will remain too low to bet).

Attachment 18198

Win bets on the #1 and #2, with #4 in an exacta box

Working on my passing skills here
 

We must have posted at the same time. Possible wire job from the 9, but no bet at 2-1.

So # 3 can run in the slop. Good for him.

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Race #5

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A bit far off from post, but #4 and #6 present betting opportunities...

The price ain't nice
 

I can retire off this one.

Hi all.. thanks for doing this card tonight.. track looks beautiful LOL..

I have a few questions, some are dumb, so please bear with me..

1) Simply put, what are the 3 colors for on the horse #? Are they based on top 3 total pace? Energy?

2) What is the absolute final bet decision based on? If there is question, what is the final decision maker (putting odds aside for a moment)... i guess what is the final contender list?

3) Should you go beyond the last 3 racelines? If so, when?

Bombs away
 

Ted,

I think I would look to play the 2 here to win and place and backwheeled with the 4.6. and 7. The 7 looks to be the class of the field, but is possibly a bit vulnerable in the slop.

Ran out of time to post on the #5, but put my bet down on the #1 and #4. #1 scratched at the gate, so #1a ran for the entry.

Fave won.

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BJ, good call! #2 definitely best bet. I also thought #7 might be vulnerable. To much 'thinking' LOL

Welcome Scott!

Quick answers for the moment:

1. For any factor, rank #1 gets RED, rank #2 GREEN, rank #3 GREEN.

2. BL/BL screen, check energy distribution on E/L Difference Graph

3. 64K Question! If intervening lines are non-representative, yes. If horse faced not as fast pace as he's shown can compete well against previously, use 2nd or 3rd rather than last. More to this...

Ted

Personal approach
 

Hi sql,

This should better be answered by Bill or Ted, but I do believe that the colors stand for Average Purse Value rank. Best of the last 3 at same distance or surface is standard Sartin practice, but I will go back a bit further if I don't find a comparable within those limits, and the timeframe is within reason - for me 90-100 days. Also, on turf races, many, myself included, use the Pizzola window - the best race in the full (visible) record. I am a value player, so for me, the odds are key. It would be better if others here answered that question. Best of luck.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Using ML
 

Thanks Ted. Since I didn't have time to check odds I didn't realize how much the horse was hammered, and probably wouldn't have bet at those odds. I've found this to be a real problem at smaller tracks and is one reason I don't play them. As far as the thought behind it - since the horse appeared to have an edge on EPR, it might be helpedt by the sloppy conditions to hit the board - we've all seen this many times. It really is a myth that play isn't as sharp at smaller tracks.

Race #6

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Win #5, #4

Exacta Box #2, #4, #5

Scott, oops - just re-read your 1st question more clearly. BJ is almost right - it's the Class Rating (CR) shown on the Entries screen, which is part APV, part consistency.

Ted

Race #6

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Hide the favourite, bet the next 2 (not what I did).

Thanks for the heads-up
 

Hi Ted,

AFAIK that feature isn't included in Spec 160, no?

Sq
 

hey Scott

Listen to Ted and many other good posters here read your follow ups and manuals and you will be a winner
The three best things you can use to make final decisions in RDSS
1. Odds
3. VDC
3. The Early/ Late Graph

By the way Scott is a long time member of our group
Way back in the beginning when Pace and Cap
was just a small yahoo group named VDC Messenger
with just a small membership
Scott helped put us on the map with a plug on
Pace Advantage.com and set us off on our way

Thanks for your help Scott

Bill

No, it's not.

Race 7 - nightmare city - pass
 

Fuhgeddaboutit.

OK, I have to retire for the night. Hope some more good ones come along for the rest before the end of the evening.

I bet against several favourites who beat me - no shame there. I over-handicapped due to the slop, a bit, and logistically over-reached a bit tonight posting and betting at the same time. Not an excuse at all, but just my quick post-mortem of my practice tonight. Normally, I work my races in silence and concentration. I'll go back over each race and decision, and already I can see that sticking with the top 2 or 3 BL/BL and hiding low-odds favourites was either pretty close to or actually was a positive ROI win betting tonight. The slop and scratches and reworking my races, and babbling on the phone with my Mum, made it a bit more work than normal.

Scott - hope there are some possibilities here for you. Watch ALL the videos - download and work the races. Even this card, after the fact. Mock up your own paceline selections after the ones I posted, but feel free to challenge my choices and see what moving parts were involved in these decisions.

Despite a 'losing' evening, I notice that I feel emotionally even-keeled, which is a good thing. We can communicate privately about follow up from here.

Have a good evening, BJennet, and Bill, and Scott. Mum, nice time spent on our game tonight!

Cheers,

Ted

Thanks for the exchange
 

Take care, Ted, and best to everyone.

Best
 

Thanks Ted

Like Howard said

"Tommorrow will be better '''and it will