Sunland Derby
 

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Interesting race. The heavy favorite, Conveyance, is undefeated but can he get the extra 1/8? A couple of horses who have never run on dirt and a couple of horses who have wins over the track.

From the limited results data I looked at, the best spot for a route winner seems to be positionally no worse than 4th, a couple of lengths off the lead all the way around. There was a winner who was 9th early on, so a deep closing win is possible.

If you think the 2 m/l favs might get hooked up where they go 47/47.1 at the 1st call, I think you can get a closer to win at 1 1/8. I may dig below the surface later if I have time.

I attached the pp's

Pace #3 Line 2


#1 slow - OUT
#4 slow - OUT
#5 slow - OUT
#7 slow - OUT
#8 slow - OUT


Leaving #2, 3, 6, 9

#9's Aqu slop line looks odd to me, #9 was also beaten by slow horse Discreetly Mine (beaten yesterday in Louisiana Derby) despite being close up, suggesting #9 is really a slow horses and Aqu line is misleading.

#9 - OUT

Right. Question

Can #2 or #6 stop #3 wiring??? i don't think so


#3 Conveyance odds should be no bigger than evens in my humble opinion.

I think there are 3 horses, possibly 4, fast enough to win this race. Unless Classical is a dirt freak and loves the dirt 1 1/8, I don't think he's fast enough to win.

I do agree with the other 3. Based on the total energies, no adjustment is needed in EXDC/Thoromation.

The EXDC screen has Conveyance winning by half a length over Nacho. The SP screen has Tempted winning by about 2 lengths over Nacho. The Thoromation screen has Nacho nosing out Conveyance, who is the Designated Place Horse.

This tells me Conveyance may not be a lock, but in my experience, undefeated horses are tough to bet against, no matter the readings.

A final twist would be Endorsement. IF he can improve off his maiden win, which his last 2 workouts suggest he might, if the pace goes too fast or the track plays to the late side, she could take it all. If she tries to go early here, she's done. I'm hoping Classical stretching out pushes Conveyance early.

Not my kind of betting race as I prefer older horses and less unknowns (track, distance, surface, etc.), but I might put a small bet on Endorsement if I can get a minimum 8-1 . I don't think I'll get it on the other contenders

Right now @ 1/5 with 18 mins. to post

All the best with Endorsement Lou.

Yep, i was thinking about playing a 3-2 Exacta Lou, but i'll pass and cheer for your horse.

Fantasic stuff. Good Skill Lou

Didn't win it with a sustained running style, but he did improve. I played a $1 exacta both ways. Doc Sartin said often to trust the screens but that the top horse on the SP screen might win with an early style and vice versa.

Thanks Charlie. I made the call but the tool was provided by the Hat and Doc.

Here are the screens. No adjustment needed as the total energies were within 2.0 pts. top to bottom

BTW, used the last line on each contender. No reason to go back.

Replay




Chart

Oh Look: they went 2-1-3 around the track. Just the way Steve Crist likes it.

You want to expand on that? That's the way all the routes except 1 had basically run at Sunland the 3 days of results that I looked at. That was also the running styles of the horses, although I thought Endorsement would take back a bit.

I don't read much drf so I don't get the Crist reference but willing to learn.

I think tfm's comment may be related to Steve Crist's comments in his blog article Lou

http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/

Charlie: Assume you mean the blog post about the Dubai Derby? I'm still not sure I get it but thanks for trying ti enlighten me!

BTW, you were darn close on the pace prediction in the Sunland Derby. Since they are young horses, Endorsement just happened to improve that day and maybe Conveyance is not a true 1 1/8 horse.

Conveyance had race run to suit him Lou and fell away tamely, so i would agree that 9f is probably not his true distance.