Major vs. Minor tracks
 

Since I’m new to the handicapping arena there are many topics that are a mystery to me. One of these is classifying a race track as minor or major.

I’m guessing that this is important when comparing PP pace lines because of the quality of horses running at minor or major tracks. A true apple to apple comparison is not possible betweeen minor or major tracks.

My understanding is that average purse values is the determining factor. For example, average purse value per race at Santa Anita $50,000 (major) - average purse value Calder $20,000 (minor). Higher purses mean better horses.

Does that ring true? :confused:

Also, where can I find what the average purse value of track is?

Thanks,

Bill P

Hope this helps.

http://www.drf.com/misc/pursevalueindex.pdf

Keep in mind that tracks that have "slots" have higher purses than other tracks that otherwise may be considered equal were it not for the revenue generated by the slots.

Also, I'm sure that one could argue that PHA (val=48) is not classier than BEL (val=46) even though PHA has a slightly higher purse value.

Also, take note of HOL (51) and SA (55) versus PHA (48). Are those tracks on a par with each other as the purse values suggest?

How about Oak Tree at Santa Anita (47)? Is it on a par with PHA (48)? You would probably get a lot of arguments on that one.

Seldom do you see a horse from the west coast ship to the east coast and run in the same class of race. Generally, those west coast horses drop down in class when coming east. It has been said that west coast races have inflated class values and the fact that horses do generally drop down in class when coming to an east coast track tends to lend credibility to that line of thinking. I'm not talking about "graded race" horses, but rather, the run of the mill every day type of horses.

In any event, I think the best approach might be to use the attachment as a guide and then reason it out for yourself. After all, in the end, you have to make the call.

Good luck!

Thanks for the link.

So if it isn't simply the average purse value of a track; what is it that makes a track a major or minor?

Bill

Hi Bill


The major tracks stage nearly all the Top Graded races, like the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes and so on.

Here is a track equilization chart http://www.americanturf.com/equaliza...fm?showchart=1 tracks with #10 in Class column are the major tracks in USA.

Terrific. That's what I was looking for.

Thanks,

Bill

They don't think too much of Woodbine, do they Charlie.
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"They" do so at "their" own peril. It seems the best comparison, based on this chart, is that Woodbine is on a par with Rodney Dangerfield. Especially in light of the fact that on the purse value index I posted there is only one track higher than Woodbine, Del Mar.

Also, there are only four classifications, 1,4,7 and 10. Although I agree with the classifications for the "1's", and I agree with Charlie that the "10's" are the tracks where the majority of the better graded races are run, and ONLY on that basis, the comparison of the tracks classified as either "4's" or "7's" are a joke in some cases. An example would be Woodbine (4) is listed as comparable to DeD (4) and Charles Town (4), which are "bull rings", just to mention a few.

I guess that's the reason why, in over 40 years of handicapping, I never paid any attention to how these various publications classify tracks.

I noticed your purse value index FTL and had to chuckle at the difference between the two charts. Of course I am biased towards Woodbine and am glad it's re-opening this weekend.
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The two charts offer very different opinons as I pointed out using Woodbine, but there are others and it makes it real hard for someone who is just getting into the game.

Charlie D was kind enough to point out that the"major" tracks are those that host the top level graded races. Well, last I heard the "Preakness" was a pretty top level graded race, and yet, Pimlico is only rated a "7". Hhhmmm.

Now the best part is, when you look at the purse value index chart FROM the Daily Racing Form, Pimilco is "29". Look around at some of the other tracks that are higher than that and in some cases MUCH HIGHER and yet on the other chart they rank as a "4". Confusing??

So is Pimlico a "major" or "minor" track?

Here's another good one. "Fairplex", is rated a "7", equal to Pimlico. "FAIRPLEX!" A "fair track"! Another bull ring! They run for a couple of weeks a year when Santa Anita, Hollywood and DelMar are closed! This year their racing dates are September 12 to September 28!! They are part of the "California Fair Circuit"! Exactly what race do they run there that compares to the"Preakness"? And yet they rank as "7" on the track equalization chart and have a "41" on the purse value index chart.

Is this to say that "Fairplex" is on a par with Pimlico where the Preakness is run every year?

Or is this to say that like every other track in California, their stats are inflated?

These are just a couple of examples. There are many more if you go look for them.

So Bill P, if you are reading this post, here is my suggestion as before, do more than just look at either of these charts, because there is more to it than that.

Let's take Aqueduct as an example. The purse value index show it as "46",but the track equalization chart shows it as either a "10" or a "7" (for the inner track). Now the inner track is what they run on during the winter months. This also corresponds with the the time of the year when the larger stables with the better horses all go south for the winter.The reason for this? Many of those stables have horses that prefer turf racing and there is turf racing in Florida, so that is where they go. Not only that, but if those stables have aspiring 3 year olds, then Florida is the place to be. So what "class" of stock is left to race at Aqueduct in the winter? The bottom of the barrel. They are running $7,500 claiming races for "non winners of two lifetime"! Many of these horses probably couldn't beat the same class of horses at Penn National or Mountaineer. So is Aqueduct in the winter really a "7"?

So what I am telling you is to make sure you evaluate ALL THE INFORMATION about a track before YOU DECIDE if it is a "major" or "minor" track, rather than rely on a chart.

Can't knock that advice FTL

I kinda figured that out after Barb and Charlie commented. I think for me the short answer is, for the time being anyway and seeing as I'm new to handicapping, if I've never heard of the track, I'll consider it minor. Pimlico I know; Fairplex, not so much.

In the short time I've been handicapping I've had zero success at the "minor" tracks.

The races I've played where I've had success have all been at Santa Anita and zipola at Mountaineer and Penn National. It hasn't been costly, only $2,00 bets, but I think trying to handicap 6 year old Maiden $4,000 Claimers is not a challenge I'm up to as of yet. Baby steps are still in order. I chalk this up as a learning experience and that I need to be more selective of which races I choose to handicap.

The races I played tonight were at Penn National. I think the results were the oddest I've seen in my short handicapping career.
- Race 1 the winner paid 35.20 (16/1) Favorite ran third
- Race 3 the winner paid 22.60 (10/1) Favorite ran sixth
- Race 4 the winner paid 13.20 (6/1) Favorite ran seventh
- Race 7 the winner paid 92.20 (45/1) Favorite ran second
- Race 8 the winner paid 14.60 (6/1) Favorite ran second

My horses are all still running. I swear one of my horses even stopped to have a cigarette!!

Hi Bill


If Santa Anita is the place you've had succes at, then i'd say stay on that circuit for your apprenticeship as doing well helps build confidence. Once your doing ok, you can then maybe start looking around for more betting opportunities at other tracks which offer similar racing to Socal


Think of yourself as being a little toddler again. First you had to learn to crawl, then walk, then run.

Thanks Charlie. Sticking with a known devil is good advice.

I find it disturbing to think of myself as a toddler. Yow!! A wrinkled, bald, and ugly toddler, ugh. Come to think of it I do look like a very ugly baby.

Bill

Dont knock MTR or PEN..i know a few guys here that relish it.;)
But thats someting for later

mike

I'll echo Mike on that. I regularly play both MNR and PEN.

Barb
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My favorite tracks are the lower class tracks as I feel that they are where you can find good longshots. i.e. pen, ded, evd, ct. My favorite track is lone star - I'm only 15 minites away but seems like a lot favs win.

I think that the advise in the previous posts are very good advice. However the best advice that I could give is get very good at picking pace lines, learn wagercapping and don't be afraid to pass, pass, pass if there is no value.

Oh, and practice, practice, practice.

Welcome to the site and good luck.

Bud

If someone has been successful at PEN these last two nights I tip my hat to you. I just got eaten alive.

I agree, not the last 2 nights. After a couple I skipped to CT. Did pretty good there this week. But I do look at PEN . You can get a good turn sometimes for 2 or 3 days. I usually look for the first three or four races and then make up my mind whether not I'm going to play the rest of them.

Keep doing what you are doing Bill. I'm pretty new to this myself. I'd never even seen a race or knew anything about racing and handicapping until two and a half years ago. I've been told this is a distinct advantage because you don't have any old habits to get rid of.

Of course it helps that I have Ted as a son and mentor, and Richie P also as a mentor. But these guys on this site are all so helpful. They will guide you along anyway they can. all you hae to do is ask, as you have been doing.

Have a happy Easter

Barb

I just happened to come across and article on the DRF site that said last year at Lone Star "there were 261 winning favorites over the 616 races run, for a 42 percent strike rate" (win rate), a phenomenally high percentage of winning favorites!

On average about 33% of all races are won by favorites and another 25% are won by second choices. The majority of second choices pay less than 5/2. For those looking for value, this only leaves 42% of all races with which to find a winner with value.

If the second choices at Lone Star won anywhere near that average, there was VERY LITTLE room for those looking for value. Of course, those stats could completely turn around this year.

what is the difference between major and minor tracks, beside better horses and larger purses.

The better quality horses form is probably less erratic gl45

Earlier someone provided me with this link.

http://http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bi...ll_edition.cgi

Go to the "at a glances" tab on the left side of this link.

There you can scroll the tracks and find the ones that have the lower % of winning favs. This also shows the average win price odds at each track.

One of the most intersting things I found was that, at Santa Anita at any rate, the favorite was ITM 75% of the time.

These are, in my humble opinion, a good indicator of how competitive the racing is at a particular track.

CD,
if I understand correctly, betting at major tracks, where better horses mantain form longer (less erratic) you would win more races than betting at lower tracks, where cheap horse (more erratic) run?

Not sure tbh gl45, i suppose that depends on the "know thy track" part of the equation..Someone specializing in say Mnr would probably win more races than someone who does not get to know the horses likes, dislikes, how shippers do etc.

Sorry to hear that. It is always disheartening to learn that anyone got their head handed to them. (so to speak)

Ok, wait a minute, let me get up on my soapbox, I’m gonna be here a while. I think “noddub62” said it best when he said that becoming “very good” at pace line selection would be his best suggestion to anyone as well as “passing” races if there is no value, to which I will add, or if you cannot determine which horse(s) have the best chance of winning the race. But “how” do become “very good” at pace line selection?

Many times your track profile or decision model can point you in the right direction, IF you are keeping those records as you should be. A track profile is based on how the winners of a race ran and have no bearing on an individual’s pace line selection. A decision model on the other hand is a direct reflection of an individual’s pace line selection. One thing I learned about computers more than 25 years ago was, “garbage in, garbage out”. The same still holds true today, especially when it comes to a decision model, since it is based on the individual’s approach to pace line selection. It stands to reason then, that consistency in picking pace lines is a key. A single pace line is all a computer program knows about the horse. One has chosen that line to represent the horses entire racing history, so it better be representative of the horses style and current condition, which translates into its’ current form and ability. The pace line is nothing more than numbers to a computer program. The computer program knows nothing! The better ones’ line selection is at representing the horses current form, style and ability, the better the results will be. The more closely the pace line selected is with regard to today’s distance the better the results will be. Ideally, every pace line selected would be at the exact same distance as today’s race, but many times that just isn’t possible.

Just a little side note here. I recently saw a pace line that was used where the horse ran 10th from start to finish in a 12 horse field. Now exactly WHAT is that line suppose to represent? (no, the horse did not win)

Here is some food for thought. Today’s race is at 5 ½ furlongs. The line selected was at 7 furlongs. Does it matter? I’m sure you will get arguments on both sides of that question. I come down on the “yes” side and this is the reason. Let’s just talk about the “second fraction” at each distance. “Where on the track” is the second fraction run at each of these distances? At 5 1/2 furlongs it is run “on the turn”, which makes sense since the second fraction is also known as ”turn time”. In fact, the 5 ½ furlong distance is the only distance that has a true “turn time”. How about the 7 furlong race? Isn’t it the same thing? The horses still have to run around that same turn. Well, no, it isn’t. First, think about the times as they appear in the racing form. The first time represents the first ¼ mile of the race. The next time represents the first ½ mile of the race. By subtracting the first time from the second time we get the “second fraction” time. This is also known as ”turn time” or “the hidden fraction”. So we have the first ¼ mile of the race and the second ¼ of the race. As mentioned above, at 5 ½ furlongs that second fraction is run “on the turn”. So the next logical question would be, do horses run faster or slower on a turn? Answer: slower. So what? What about the 7 furlong race? The second fraction of a 7 furlong race is run on the straight of the back stretch. So is it a fair comparison of the second fraction of a 5 ½ furlong race, run on a turn, to the second fraction of a7 furlong race, run on the straight? I say “no”, but you decide for yourself.

And then there is this. Someone chooses a 6 ½ furlong pace line from a bull ring (a 5/8ths of a mile oval) such as DeD or CT among others, and uses it at a one mile oval in a 6 furlong race. WOW! What a conflict that is! A 6 ½ furlong race at a bull ring is run around TWO TURNS, while a 6 furlong race at a mile oval is run around ONE TURN! Good luck with that one! Which turn is the “turn time”? lol

Another thing to consider is, do horses even run the same “style” at each of these distances? Not necessarily! A dedicated early type will run early at each distance and, of course, the closers or “sustained” runners will still be at the back of the pack at both distances. But then there are horses that will change styles based on the distance. Many times you will see a horse that runs as a “presser” at 5 1/2 furlongs run as an “early” type at 7 furlongs. In fact, you will see this change in style among some horses when the change in distance is “slight”, such as 5 1/2 furlongs to 6 furlongs. It’s all there in black and white. All you have to do is look! In one of the follow-ups there is a great “Yogi Berra” quote, “you can observe a lot just by watching”!

And I’m not even going to get involved with mixing pace line distances such as route in a sprint or sprint in a route. Sure, you can find a race where it worked out, but keep in mind, “even a blind pig finds an acorn once in a while”! Yeah, I know, but pigs eat acorns too and I happen to like the saying with “pig” rather than “squirrel”.

The standard guideline for pace line selection is “best of last 3, distance/surface”. (Now here’s some help with this. If the best of last 3 distance surface puts you on a line where the horse ran 10th from start to finish, perhaps this is a horse you could do without in the program.) Personally, I don’t agree with this guideline as I am much stricter than that. What good is the best of last 3 distance surface if that line is 400 days ago? Is there something “recently” that really indicates the horse is ready to run that kind of race today? If there is, then use it! I have NOT read every single follow up article, but from the ones I have read I can say this, seldom have I read where a line other than the last line was used as long as it was at the appropriate distance and surface. In the event that today’s race is a sprint and the last line was a route, line two would be the choice if that were a sprint. In other words, use the last line UNLESS there is a “good reason” to go back, and then, only back one line. If for some ”good reason” you need to go back another line, then go back. Of course this “good reason” deal opens up a can of worms for all who just can help themselves from going back to that 10th line back for whatever the reason may be. For me, personally, the ”going back process” stops at 90 days. If there is no line in the last 90 days, the horse is out. I won’t bore you with all the stats with regard to the percentage of horses that win within so many days or the number of horses that have a line in the last 90 days and all that stuff. In addition, the line used would have represented some type of form, a win, a second, a third or some early speed before fading in the stretch, “something” that indicated current form. Many times I see lines used that go back 6,7,8 or more races. YOU DO NOT NEED TO GO BACK THAT MANY LINES IN ORDER TO GET PRICES! Let’s take a look at Follow Up #83. Read through the races analyzed and see the lines selected as well as the reason for the line selected. And please, note the prices! http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...?t=3066&page=2

Good luck everybody!

The information of several lines will indicate a horses ability and how it performs in different Match Ups. The information contained in one line can not do that.

Use the best program ever created FIRST to obtain a "picture". of the horse and it's ability. From this you will be able to deterime if a horse is a contender or not, once you have your TRUE contenders, ENTER them into your computer program.

You are still only looking at one line that represents one race. You are just looking at several of them at one time.

How do you know what the various "match ups" were in each of the various lines (races)?

I'm not posting to argue toss, i'm posting what i think is the best advice i know from the experiences of playing


Look at ALL lines and try and obtain a "picture" of the horse to determine what he/she can do against different Match Ups

The Past Performance histories of a horse are the cappers BEST friend.

I understand and your willingness to offer your experience is appreciated. My point is not to argue, but rather, to try and help the new members looking for advice.

When you say that looking at various pace lines to know how the horse competes against various match ups, it begs the question "how do you know what the match ups in those races were by looking at a single line".

Since you didn't provide that information, I was just asking for you to provide it so that the new members understand.

The Pacelines tell me what i need to know most of the time as i'm a Pace handicapper


Horse gets stuffed regularly against 22 - 45 and todays Projected Pace is 22 - 45, it is highly probable he is not going to win again today and the horse can be chucked.

Despite what some will have you believe, It's not rocket science

Thanks Charlie, I'm sure that will help all who read it.

All the help one needs is on this site imho.. So my advice is to get reading, listening, watching and get an education.

Practice, learn from your mistakes, then more practice.

if you mantain a results data base you'll be able to tell what pace MU did the horse encounter in his pp races. Beside I like to suggest what not to look for in a horse's pp.

That is very true. The amount of information you can have in a results data base is limited only by your imagination.

The Past performance histories of horses are results db's are they not??

Here are two articles of reading that imo will give newbies a good base from which to work from.

The Dynamics of Incremental Velocity and Energy Exertion by Dr H Sartin and the Five Step Approach to the Match Up by Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw.

In a very small part.

Why is that?? they tell you pace of race, posiition of the horse and what happened under those conditions.

You can convert this information into FPS, Pace figs, Energy distributions.


This info can then be used to Project Pace or Race, Match horse against todays Projected Pace and horse against horse to identify the TRUE contenders and the pretenders.


Just as Tom Brohamer, Doc Sartin, Jim "The Hat " Bradshaw etc teach in thier various Manuals, Tapes, books and articles.