Better betting strategy
 

You all seen my picks lately, and it seems that certain days I hit 7-8 out of 10-11 races, but seem to leave money behind. Can you help me change that?

I know maybe limiting my wagers to bets that are above 4-1 only, and if they do not meet that criteria, then pass the race, yet it seems that alot of those races have a real ligit fav that is under 4-1 as one of the three contenders, and one that hits at high rates, so betting the 2 higher odds of the 3 contenders, gets me beat alot.

Is this still a learning thing ,like when to wager , as really true wagers may come by only 1-2 times a day per track or 1-2 times per 2-3 tracks per day, what would it be , or each day is different, most likely, right.

Is anyone willing to work a little with me and help me better plan a winning betting strategy, please let me know, thanks

patrick

Nothing , oh well I tried.


Patrick

Patrick,

Read the Follow Ups concerning wagercapping. If you are getting winners in your contenders (top 5) at a good rate then you need to polish your wagercapping.

Good luck,
Bud

Hey Bud

Thanks alot and I have read the follow-ups, but was kinda hoping for more current updated wager strategy's made by current players.

I believe there was a Charlie here that plays a Termination style of wager that I would love to learn, but will be patient, and may need to go elsewhere for wagering help.

I wish and will become a wagering guru in the coming years, first thru practice paper wagers and then real wagers, but was hoping to find someone using the same program I am, and thus making and learning how to structure a wager from what RDSS gives us.

I hope this makes sense, but what I am looking for is someone to work with, on how to structure a race where pace lines are plentiful for all runners and 3-6 runners stand out above the others, normally a 10+ horses running, and then finding 2 key horses to work with and help key the wagers around, kinda like finding your 2 win bet horses, but also feel that the odds and your horses are worthy of attacking this race with multiple wagers.

Am I the only one doing more than win bets here, I think not, but we horse players are a solo artist's for the most part, so I know working together is tough to find, but I will be patient and keep plugging away till someone gives in.

Patrick

Patrick,

You also PM'd me further to comments I made in your Mother's Day Churchill Downs betting thread (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6818), and I think that's a great card of races to use as a backdrop to some comments. I went over all your published picks and tabulated the wins, losses. I do have some comments on a few alternate analysis choices you might have made (and could apply consistently) but I'll return to those comments later, as the topic here is Wagering Strategy.

I would like to suggest that you concentrate for a while on getting the Winner and the Place horse - only. You already get the Winner in your 5 contenders a high percentage of the time and as we shall see, you're pretty good at identifying 2 horses who win with some frequency. Getting the Place horse involves identifying both the horses ranked highly on our Betting Line and knowing who disburses their energy typically most opposite to the win contenders (even if they are lowly placed on the Betting Line or Total Energy). With that in mind, please restrict yourself to wagers in the Win & Place pools, Exacta, and horizontal bets like Doubles, Pick 3 and Pick4s where you can leverage your strengths in identifying Winners. Leave off the Trifecta and Superfecta for now - focus on Win and Place only.

Let's consider CD May 9 card of races and the bets you made in the above noted thread. For starters, you picked the winner using 2 horses in races 1,3,4,5 (except for race #3 in which short field the #2 was an obvious 1 horse short price standout and not win bet, which paid $2.80 to win, with no show betting).

You did not pick the winner in race 6, a Turf route, but I'd like to suggest that that race was gettable using a widely discussed approach to 'opening the window wide' and using Turf lines from the horse's entire PPs, as discussed yesterday in this thread (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6864, please refer to my post #3 there). Could I ask you to rework that race #6 (May 9, CD) and report back on your top 2 BL/BL horses (and for extra measure, who is the 'counter-energy' horse to include in an exacta). I only mention this race #6 to show the effect of picking the winner from 2 horses for 4 races in a row (or a single horse in race 3).

In that run of races 3 - 6, you could have bet also your win bets in 2 DDs and 2 Pick 3s and would have won all of them.

Could I ask you to report back what your race 1,3,4,5,6 bets would cost using a $10 win wager unit, betting 2 horses (except no win bet in race #3), also the cost of $2 Exacta boxes or the part wheels you posted in your thread, the cost of $2 DD and Pick 3s - along with the returns for all those wagers. No Trifecta or Superfectas (just cover your eyes in race 6). You will be very pleasantly surprised - I was!

We can continue with the remaining races after you report back. I'm going somewhere with this: do you keep records on what you bet, received and your return on the $ (ROI)? I admit that in your picks as originally reported, some of the later races could have been either passed or an Exacta and Place bet added to take profits in those pools and mitigate losses in the Win pool. But at the time, I was confused by your final (discouraged) statement in that thread 'another rotten day', when initially it seemed it was anything but, and after studying it for several hours, on the contrary it seems like rather a fine and intriguing day!

I want to talk about identifying the counter-energy horse in a follow up to this, and keep the initial discussion related to Wagering Strategy and considering leveraging your Win bet anaysis. But wagering to Place or in Exacta pools involves identifying a horse that probably can't win (and hopefully looks like a loser) but who will either lead and just fail, or come on at the end and can be seen as such from its relative energy disbursement patterns.

To that end, and for homework for revisiting this day of races and Wagering Decisions, can you also take a look at the Place horse in race 4 (which you got) and race #7. Also, please look at the Place horse in race 9 and suggest how at least a place bet might have been made on it.

Then, let's discuss this further. I also have some further thoughts on why you might have considered PASSing races 8, 10 and 11.

Of course, anyone else is welcomed to chime in on this card analysis, but Patrick since you asked for some guidance (such as I'm able), the forgoing (and subsequent) are my thoughts. I took some time to do this, so I hope you take time as well.

For reference, Result Charts are here: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...D050910USA.pdf

Disclosure: The only race on this card I worked before the fact was race #1.

Cheers, looking forward!

Ted

Ted , this reponse is awesome Sir, and I promise to do what you suggest and will get busy with homework, this time with a purpose and reason.

Thank you Sir for the kind remarks, and my reference to "another rotten day", was more so for what I did leave behind when I looked back at what I did and did not do, as the same thing happened on Derby Day the 1st 5 races I nailed and missed out on some big money on DD P3 and 1 pick 4, but crying over missed opportunities must stop, and a more decisive winning stratagey developed.

Well I will get busy soon and really enjoy going back over this and must read up a little on this on the "counter-energy" thing and find the horse who gets nipped at the wire , or who closes , but yet never quites get there. Which RDSS can show ths easily enough.

Gotta run

Patrick

Ok race 6 re-done, but look at the time between some of the last turf races, a year and half, but it does put the 8 and 6 on top , with 1 and 7 underneath.

I just got screen hunter downloaded and hope I remember how it works, so I post this quickly to see if it worked.

The winners entire lines

Okay I have the screen shot down again and will do the rest soon , with pleasure.

Thanks again Ted

Patrick

results race 6

1, 3, 4 ,5, and 6 would be 100.00 in win bets and another 20.00 in exacta for a total of



120.00 in win bet

180.00 in winnings

36.60 in exactas

40,00 in eaxcta bets

Gotta run more homework later

Race 1 winner 8.20

Race 3 winner 2.80

Race 4 winner 7.80 26/2367 exacta 12.00 bet win 36.60

Race 5 winner 11.00

Race 6 Loser

Daily double race 3-4 8.00 win 14.20

race 4-5 8.00 win 48.20

race 5-6 8.00 win 185.20

Pick 3 race 3-4-5 32.00 win 70.40

race 4-5-6- 32.00 win 743.60

100.00 in total win bets Total win bets 29.80 X 5 = 149.00

I am still wondering about race using only turf races, as it does produce the winner and exacta, but a few of the pacelines were 469 day old, isn't that too long ago for this type of race, where a stakes race would be acceptable, no?


I hope this covers my homework, and as far as writing down my bets, no I am not physically writing down in a journal or any other manner , than putting them up here in the post.

20 race session are considered 2 cards or 2-4 cards with 20 playable races??? I know I am playing too many races, that I am sure no one will argue with me on that, but practice is practise. no?

Happy Memorial Day all
patrick

Patrick,

Just to recap those first 5 races (1,3,4,5,6), looking at Win only, you yourself (and mostly anyone) would have passed race 3, so no Win bet (though use it in a DD).

So you had 4 Win bets (races 1,4,5,6). Say you bet $10 per race, $5 on each of 2 horses per race.

Bet $40.00 (4 x $10)
Ret $67.50 (2.5 tickets each race on cumulative win mutuels of $27.00, excluding race 6)
Net $27.50
ROI 68.7%

If you choose to count race 6 as winnable, the Win bet numbers look like this:

Bet $50.00 (5 x $10)
Ret $106.00 (2.5 tickets each race on cumulative win mutuels of $42.40)
Net $56.00
ROI 112%

Patrick, I would STRONGLY recommend that you get into the habit of writing down in a notebook or journal (for starters) EVERY SINGLE WAGER you make, and so much the better during your practice phase to do it before the race runs. Doesn't matter if any one else sees it - you need to see it. Write down the results next to your initial wager - doesn't matter the format for now, columns or freeform, whatever. Just write it down. Carry that journal with you, or keep it by your computer as you make your wagers.

The reason for this is that often enough (like this day at Churchill) you will have good days and seeing the summary of your numbers can be very inspiring. I wrote it all down myself on a sheet of paper and I was inspired by your bets! That's why we're still talking about this. Make it a discipline, like a worship, or a yoga, or like brushing your teeth each morning. Soon enough you will not wish to live without it (though you will surely graduate to more sophisticated bookkeeping methods).

You made either .68 cents profit per dollar bet or $1.12 per dollar - on Win bets - depending on the outcome of race 6. You need to see this summarized, like I have done above, in your wager journal, so you can get the mental and emotional juice from it when you need it.

Let's talk about Race #6 next, the Turf race.

It's entirely likely that the race #6 winner may not have won that day, or it's certainly possible that I might have been dubious as to whether it could regain its Turf form from so long ago and not bet it to either Win or Place. Anything is possible. However, the point I was trying to make is that the Analysis approach to Turf races described in that link above (take a horse's best Turf performance from its entire PPs regardless the timeframe, ask that it's in some form today, or at least that it has been racing on surfaces or distances it did not like or was over-matched and returns today to the circumstances of previous competence - i.e. Turf routes) - this consistently applied approach (i.e. it could be computerized) will win at decent odds enough times to use it regularly and be profitable. I have enjoyed regular hits over some time now doing this, hence the advice. It might not have worked for us today - no worries - we don't know when an approach will hit or miss - only that it will do so 'n' times out of 100 and generate such and such profit. Call it a spot play if you like, or an approach to a class of races, whatever.

Try this on as many Turf routes (try routes for starters) as you can going forward and keep track in your notebook how often it hits and at what mutuels. See if it can become part of your arsenal ot tools.

Next, lets talk about counter-energy horses, races #7 (and race #4)

Back in a bit...

Ted

I got to thinking about why you would suggest this and I impressed myself by pretty much thinking along the lines of your explaination, that to me was a bigtime boost in my confidence. now let me get to work on counter-energy race 4 and 7 and get back to you.

Spot play number 1 thank you can not say it all, but thanks Ted

Patrick

Counter Energy
 

Patrick, continuing on further analysis of this card, on the topic of Counter Energy, I identified 2 races of interest, races 4 and 7. Observing who is running positionally opposite to the Earlies and disbursing their energy opposite to the indicated Win contenders.

Race 7. I'd agree with your 2 Win bets, the 6 and 8, thus the Win wager would be lost. Thinking about concentrating on Win and Place (thus Exactas), consider the following Analysis and Result Chart excerpt:

Attachment 19776
Attachment 19778

Attachment 19777

Positionally, the 3 (the Winner) and 5 are Other Than Early and there is some Early Pressure in this race. Energy disbursement-wise, the 3 and 5 are also the Late (opposite) horses, with the 5 being most Late. You'd have to make a further judgement call, looking at their respective PPs and bet-time odds (9/2 for the #3 versus 21-1 for the #5) as to which was ready to duplicate, improve, decline off the chosen lines (public thought #3, and strong 5f prep 4 days earlier).

An Exacta box on the Win contenders including the #3 picks up the Exacta (to offset the losing Win bets), including the #5 loses today. You'd have to draw your own conclusions on which of those opposite horses was liklier.

Ted

Counter Energy ... continued
 

Continuing the Counter-energy examples available from this card is Race 4.

You got the exacta in this race by including the strongest counter-energy horse underneath your Win bets of 2 & 6 (I might have suggested the 1 and 6, given the bet-time odds on the 2 - same result though). The #3 horse was the most Late or distributed most Late, and was held at reasonable bet-time odds of around 5-1.

Attachment 19779

Attachment 19780

Again, these examples have nothing to do with red-boarding, but rather, just trying to bring your attention to considering some race dynamics which may help while you're still focusing on only the Win and Place horses.

Finally, regarding Exacta betting, may I suggest (if you've not already done so), reviewing the 55% Solution Manual in the Library.

Continued good luck, good record keeping and good focus Patrick!

Ted

Many Thanks Ted

Great stuff, keeps me thinking in different ways, keeps me sharp and always open to new ways to see things, like winners. This stuff is so much fun, I can not wait to be fulltime doing this, as I know with you all here and my superb skills, lol, I will be the best in no time, actually I am improving and seeing things better this time, thinking more from Doc and Hat and Tom's perspective, as well the people here now, I'm in heaven, thanks again.

More homework please, I love it, anyone got homework for me please PM or put it up here, let me at it.

Patrick

Great explanation Sir.

I let myself have a few days off and come back, reread this post and see things different once in awhile, I now have more things to help me look at finding a contender, or pretender, (M/L fav) , now you went over race 4 and 7, and is ther anything specific you wanted me to look at??

Thanks again

Patrick