Time for some help
 

Here are the past performances of a randomly picked horse

I have the config tap set to all default RDSS settings and am using Val 4 mode

This is for some one on one help I am offering to a RDSS user

The Track is PARX ( philly)
and its an open $5000 Claimer

Here are the PP's The top one is the original lines
Bottom is Adjusted

Step for me . Which pace line would you use ?

bump
 

There are no right / wrong answers

I have asked the person who asked for the help to
answer my questions I would like to work a typical race in question and answer steps

Bill I would say use the last race...
the others looks like his top races, but is he still in top condition??..

this horse has been consistent and in the money...but he also has been running @20 days apart from one to another...

Now hes off for 60 days after being claimed...questions???

mike i agree about the 60 days, but 30 day wait after a claim, similar class plus i think
PARX<----(notice new name drop:rolleyes:) was off most of aug.
but i would use either line 2-3. because of sr and split times.

too bad this horse scratched...would love to know how he would do

how smart is this trainer if he did know this before claim???

and now ..why did he scratch him....not ready???

too many question for me

Yes the horse has been off 60 days but he may have had some solid 5F workouts.
Using Bills model the unadjusted times for the Ist and 2nd calls fall into the ranges below for 6F.

Ist call : 21.1 - 22.4 , 2nd call: 44.1 - 45.3

This would eliminate line 1 which is too slow 22.9 - 46.3 (out of range).
So if you use line1 the horse cannot run to the projected times.

But if the horse had those 5F works then I would use line 2 because:

Line 2: 22.3 - 45.3 Is within the winners range for 6f and has a better SR than line3.

Line 2 is also a tick faster to the Ist call than line 3 (22.3 - 22.4)

However line 3 is faster to the 2nd call then line 2 (45.1 - 45.3)

But overall I would give line 2 the edge: faster to the first call and a higher SR.

Ernie

i placed the horse in my vir. stable. see where next time it runs.

I would take the last race. But there is no right or wrong, it is my personal feeling, that I should take the last race. :-)

I ran the race thru my Taulbot Pace Calc and the software picked the 5-30-10 paceline. Bill, in your post #2 you said "There are no right / wrong answers". Is that to mean that there is no best paceline to select? I ask this as I am in the process of reading everything I can in the selection of the best representative paceline. Thank you for offering your help, so very much appreciated! Best regards, Tom

Right or Wrong? How about Profit or Loss?
 

I can never understand why everyone has such a problem with line selection. Well, I take that back. I DO understand. It's the idea that "there are no rules". THAT is the single biggest problem. It leaves EVERYBODY out there wondering what line to pick and in the Sartin Methodology or any methodology where line selection is the heart and sole of the methodology, you BETTER HAVE SOME RULES! Without some kind of "rules" or "very strict guidelines", what you end up with is a methodology where you do "this" one time and you do "that" another time. There is no consistency. It's a recipe for disaster.

I have to laugh at the phrase “there is no right or wrong”. While one may subscribe to that line of thought, there is also the the thought, “you can either win or you can lose”.
It’s like playing Blackjack. How can you tell someone who consistently hits their “16” against the dealers “6” that what they are doing is wrong? It’s their money isn’t it? They can do whatever they want, right? But you know they will lose in the end.

My choice would be THE LAST LINE. Here’s the reason(s).

If you read through the follow ups, you will find many examples where "Doc" shows you his line selection process. You will see, that much more often than not, "Doc" was on line 1 or line 2.

Consider this, taken from a recent post by JeffH:
"I have read the followups, the paceline manual, and a bunch of threads regarding paceline selection. The paceline manual says to always use last race unless there's a valid reason not to (wrong surface, distance, class, etc.)."

This was taken from my response to the post by JeffH:

I got started with the Sartin Methodology about 25 years ago when the ONLY "guideline" for picking pace lines was "THE LAST LINE IS THE LINE UNLESS FOR SOME GOOD REASON YOU HAVE TO GO BACK". Now, the next thing was, how far do you go back? The answer was, to the VERY NEXT LINE. If for some GOOD REASON THAT LINE WAS NOT USUABLE, then you go BACK ONE LINE.

There was never anything that told you to start right off by picking pace line #10!
There was never anything that told you to bypass a good line in favor of a better line down the list!

The reason the last line is the line, is because it is the most recent piece of information on the horses current form.

I have found that the original "guidelines" have served me well right from the beginning.
Have I ever tinkered with line selection? Well, I'm human, so the answer is "yes". Have I ever found anything to be better than the original "guideline"? NO.

Personally, my line selection is always, LAST LINE IS THE LINE, UNLESS THERE IS A REASON TO GO BACK ONE LINE. This is coupled with my own "RULE" that I will not use any horse that hasn't run in the last 90 days. WHY? Because 95% of all winners have run a race in the last 90 days. I will not use any pace line that is more than 90 days old. WHY? Horses in training will generally run 3 to 5 races during that period of time. If you can't get a line for a horse during that time period over that number of races, perhaps it is time to THROW THAT HORSE OUT!

The largest percentage of winners come right off their last line, where the last line is applicable.
The next largest percentage of winners come from use of the second line back. The further back you have to go for a line, the lower the win percentage.

All the last line tells you is how a horse performed in it's last race and NOTHING else.


Look at ALL lines - This is the horses "Picture" The "Picture" you SEE is how the horse performs against the different race dynamics.

SELECT horses. Horses that are the TRUE contenders in TODAYS Match Up.

You are supposed to be PACE handicappers like Tom Brohamer. How the hell can you evaluate a HORSE from just ONE line.

Look at ALL lines

If you read the above from MPH carefully you will notice he is working his way though the HORSES. Early horse to Pesser to Late . He is looking for the HORSE or HORSES that are the TRUE contenders in TODAYS Match Up. Just like The HAT.


If you have read what i posted and understood it, it should put you in a better position than most playing this Great Game.


Good skill.

Good post, just not on topic.

The topic of the post was HELP WITH LINE SELECTION for those using software where one line is entered to represent the horse.

This is more in line with "Doc" than with "Hat".

The answer to the question is not to select A paceline and the sooner the person posing the question and others understand that, they will be in a better position than most playing this Great Game as stated.



Good Skill.

..
Doc Sartin

The Dynamics of Incremental Velocity and Energy Exertion is the fancy title for the MATCH UP which i believe was written by Doc Sartin


raw MATCH UP - Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw. Adjusted MATCH UP - Howard Sartin.


Both singing from the same page and anyone with a month or two of learning should know that was so.


Good Skill

who is right ?
 

Its been about 24 hours so let me jump in and comment

This horse was picked at random. It could be any horse at any track.
I was asked to help a pace and cap reader not with line selection, But to
give him help using RDSS

He wants to set up some phone time to go over a card
I told him . Before I invest my time telling you what you may or may not agree
with Let me see what you think.

Since we have been working together in Private messages I wanted to see how he would respond to the question "which paceline would YOU use"

he has not answered yet Maybe he is busy or taking his time
thinking of what I think is right or wrong NO >> Ithat is the reason I put
in the line There is no right or wrong answer

I posted it here because I feel heling one client in private gets 1 person help Doing the same work here might help many more people and It is work

Now 7 people answered the question
Mile Sal - Line1
RVerge - Line 2-3
SilentRun - Line2
Profiler - Line 1
AtlasAxis- Line 3
For The lead Line 1
Charlie - All Lines

If one or all 7 of those who answered had been the one who asked for help
Based on there answers I would know what they think

So There are no right or wrong answers
Not one of the 7 who answered is right or wrong

The person who comes closes to my thinking is Rverge

Here is my answer Best of the Last Three Comparable

All three lines are from PARX :cool: Politically correct Binder
All three lines are at 6.0 furlongs
All three lines are 5000 Claimers same as this race
All three lines have close speed ratings and less than 7.5 BL

The First thing I tell anybody who asks me for help is They must read
follow Ups 70 -88

If the man who asked me for my help answered. I would have been very happy if he
followed me My choice line 2 and 3
here are my reasons with screen shots and clips fro follow up 78 and 82

screens
 

I wish I had the file i Validator format but I don't
But RDSS perceptor total lie score works just like the F6 function in Validator

The F6
 

The F6 or preceptor total line score

not to beat this to death...

seeing last line of a slower 1c and 2c and still this horse still couldnt do much with that compared to lines 2 and 3 shows me that the horse is declining in form.
Add to the fact that he was scratched when he should have been in excellent shape for a return, confirms me that something is wrong...

besides picking lines you need to "read" into what has been happening to get a "story" about the horse leading into today's race

Chef...thxs for adding him to your watch list...pls inform us when hes running again..very curious!!

mike

Some interesting statements on Bills screenshots, in particular, paragraph one of the first screenshot.



I have highlighted some words. I've done this because i think it shows Doc is using the best program ever created and this process is very similar to Jim and Tom.


Remember. The Software is just a tool and it can not think. If you input Garbage, you will get a grabage output.

Good skill.

I would have to see the Perceptor rankings.

I tend to use the best of the last three SRs, but if that line is Perceptor-ranked 2 or 3, and the next ranking up is within 4 SR points, I will take that line.

Thus, if the best of the last three is an 82 SR and ranked #3 in Perceptor, I will take the 2nd or 1st Perceptor line is the SR is no more than 86.

It may sound wacky but in conjunction with a decision model, it works for me.

EDITED TO ADD:
Now that I see that a later post has the Perceptor rankings, I would take line #2.

feel
 

Great post Charlie. I am nowhere near these great men you mention. But I am starting to get a very sight picture in my mind of the energy readouts and early late graph by looking at some pacelined and the pace of the race. Now when I do my Sartin energy parameters. For PARX
I just kind of am seeing the numbers before hand

automotan

1.A self-operating machine or mechanism, especially a robot
2.One that behaves or responds in a mechanical way.



It is very easy to become the above and if you become the above you are going to be just like a robot and loose "feel" , "intution" , "Minds eye" or whatever term you want to call it.

People know a horse is not a machine. Students of the Sartin methodology that have been here a decent period should also know from their learning a horse race is not a mechanical process.

Then why treat the horses and the races they run in as if they are.

Are you speaking disparagingly of those who wish to mechanically pick pace lines or are you just pointing out the errors of their ways?

As one who described above a relatively mechanical way of my own, I would like to be clear on that. In the meantime, [*** deleted ***].

Rest assured, there is still plenty of room for me to use my intuition (note proper spelling) as I'm not wedded to the final rankings that my method chooses. A person can use a mechanical selection method for pace lines but still apply judgment when it comes to the wagering process. There are still other details to be sweated - such as whether to even make a wager being the most crucial.

Also, in this example, we are certainly operating in a vacuum - we're not looking at the other contenders, so there isn't much of a race shaping up at this point. There is always room for fine tuning later.

Yes, I edited and deleted a few posts just now (they were unrelated to paceline selection anyway). The topic is useful, but must not decay into any disrespectful or distracting commentary.

Plus, I'll be gone for a few days and can't allow anything here to go off topic.

Thanks for understanding.

Ted

Hi Ted


I don't usually query forum admin, but why was my reply to this deleted??

*** Charlie: please check your Private Messages *** Ted

I have only 3 words to add to this discussion at the moment: consistency, consistency, consistency!

Well maybe a few more. IMO, the way to pick pacelines is the way you have discovered - either through reading and testing the advice of others, or through your own trial and error - that you consistently and persistently make money doing do. For one person to advise another that such and such a method is wrong is to likely invoke a shrug from someone who knows full well that they profit from paceline selection using the 'disfavoured' method.

Maybe Sartin, or Bradshaw or Brohamer or Pizzolla each used and taught their respective dissimilar (or similar) approaches, but they are not here with you, by your side, as you select your lines today. You must do it by yourself, and you must do it the same way for each and every next race, otherwise you have no method at all (i.e. you approach is not 'methodical'). Since racing is chaotic and often unpredictable in the short term, while it can be predictable in the long-term, if you don't pick your lines using consistent rules you won't know if a WIN in a given race is the result of your method or merely random, OR whether a LOSS in a race is the evidence of short-term randomness or the result of a weakness in your method. Hence consistency - in the long-run, you'll find out if you're headed in the right direction with your method.

I have seen perhaps more peoples' paceline selection strategies up close (at least using RDSS) than many here, and I can say with no care to whether folks believe me that there are some VERY different approaches to line selection AND some successful (profitable) RDSS users among them. In almost EVERY case I can think of, the people tend to pick their line or lines for horses the same way race after race (allowing that lines for Turf routes may be chosen differently than lines for dirt sprints, and Graded races differently than for Maidens). Consistency.

There is Best of last 3 (SR, TE, CPR, Perceptor) comparable, roughly per Bill's example; there is last line except when it's not comparable (but favouring last); there is not the best/not the worst rating of the past 'n' days (90/120/270 whatever) but sticking to the last 3 lines and comparable surfaces and distance structure; there is finding the probable Projected Pace, then searching other horses entire PPs for a line which pits them against that pace or shows them running in a typical position against such pace (i.e. visual Match Up); there is picking the best 3 PoH TE's from entire PPs; there is picking the best Early Energy style (e.g. using E/L) from lightly raced maidens; and likely several more distinct ones or flavours of the above.

People can win and lose different races by consistently employing different paceline selections - but end up with a profit none-the-less. In my view - there are definitely rules - the rules of your adopted or created method. The rules must be almost rigorous enough that they could be coded in a computer program. Which method to use? Try them - see which suit you, which profit for you. Some people work dozens of races a day, really quickly choosing lines from fairly mechanical approaches. Perhaps they bet superfectas or Pick 3s, while someone else bets Win only. Such a person cannot spend too much time analysing the deep possibilities in each race. They may also work 10 races and hold out for odds such that they typically bet 2 or 3 of them only. Or work 40 races to get 8 bets. Someone else may focus in great detail on just one card per day (or per weekend), and seek 5 or 10 different bets from just one card so they want to understand deeply what is going on in each race's matchup.

This all stems from differences in people's personalities and personal histories, and RDSS (or the entire Methodology as I see it) enforces no required way of going about this - only exhorting one to be serious and develop something which works - since it does work! That's why you can choose your own lines in RDSS (even while you may eventually make use of an automated or semi-automated strategy to do some of the heavy lifting).

If someone (e.g. someone new) asks me my advice, I would now say investigate not the best/not the worst (if possible) from comparable distance structures and surfaces within the last 3 lines PERIOD, erring on the side of last line for recent races i.e. within 28 days (for the reasons For the Lead elaborated earlier). Be cautious of blindly using a horse's best ever effort recently (unless, perhaps, a lightly raced young horse with a recent obvious improvement vector). Too many things can go wrong demanding a horse duplicate its best ever, especially if it has just done so recently. This approach (like several of the above itemized paceline selection strategies) can be fairly well automated (which I have been doing, the past few months) in the interests of applying a consistent approach.

For the record, re the initial example, I would choose the 3rd line (not the best, not the worst SR from the last 3 lines). I would always check to see if the energy disbursement pattern of a candidate line (check E/L readout) is reasonably consistent with how a horse typically gives its energy on a similar surface/distance structure (i.e. no use using the ONLY line in an entire career with an Early side, when EVERY other line shows somewhat Late - the Early type line is atypical, so choose a different one as more likely to represent the horse today).

My 2 cents... :)

Ted

Thanls for the explanation in the PM Ted.

Onward.



If a mechanical process were the successful methodology Ted, you as a programmer (or other programmers )could write a programme and there would never be another question like the one Bill put forward here.

In other words, we would have no need to think, in fact, no need to do anything except download the PP's and press RUN.



The reason or reasons i think you or other programmers can't solve the above problem is because of what i wrote here
(This then begs this question i think)

Why treat the horses and the races they run in as if they are machines and mechanical processes.

If in no other way, Ted and I are on the same page with regard to consistency of paceline selection.
When people post their races here, I always pay attention to which line(s) they have selected. I think if the readers would pay attention to Ted's posts, seldom will you see him stray to far from the last line, much the same way that "Doc" did not stray far from the last line, and I find that Ted has as much success as anyone.

Ted indicated that he is working on an automated pace line selection method. Knowing that his approach to paceline selection is different from mine, I don't envy him, since I have already been down that road. But since he mentioned it, I will take the opportunity to provide more detail of the results of my automated paceline selection method, the results of which are the basis for what I post for the readers information.

I researched the last 100,000 races or so and here is what that research shows.

1 - a little more than 71% of the winners were chosen from their last line
2 - a little more than 21% of the winners were chosen from the 2nd line back. Obviously the last line did not qualify.
3 - 6% of the winners came from the third line back. Again lines 1 and 2 did not qualify
4 - 2% of the winners came from the 4th line back. Again, line 1, 2 and 3 did not qualify

Naturally, all my lines selections are based on distance surface.
I do not use turf on dirt or poly.
I do not use dirt or poly on turf.
I do not use sprints in routes.
I do not use routes in sprints.
I do not use horses that haven't raced in the last 90 days
I do not use lines that are over 90 days old
I do not use lines where the horse was never "in the race" and got beat by less than 7.75 lengths.
I do not look at speed ratings
Naturally, I use races where the horse ran 1st,2nd or 3rd
I use lines where the horse showed early speed and got beat by more than 7.75 lengths


Because my paceline selection is automated, this is the way my pacelines are selected on all races.
CONSISTENT, CONSISTENT, CONSISTENT!!

Because I have all this information in a database, I have TRACK PROFILES and DECISION MODELS at my fingertips.
And I use them.
Handicapping is more than final time or any other measure that equates to final time.

And in the End
 

So one of you "Had to laugh" when I said
There are no right or wrong answers

Thank you Ted and everybody for all your input It was very entertaining
and helped me

I don't think there can be a right way Bill because horses are not machines and horse races are not mechanical processes as stated.


Look at the PP of the horse you posted and you'll see different POR's, different Positions and different Speedfigures. But most important i think you see a horse reacting differently to the PACE OF THE RACE.


Aoto selection of Line 1 may be totally irrelevant, so may the use of best of last 3 and every other automated Paceline selection process all because of TODAYS Pace of Race Match Up.

What were those books called, was it PACE makes the Race, The Race is PACE???




PACE = rate of movement, the rate of movement impacts the energy distribution of horse and horses. This impacts final time, finishing position and beaten lengths.


Good titles for books about horse racing imho.

Well, let me step right up to the plate!

The least you could do is NOT quote me out of context.

What I said was, "I have to laugh at the phrase “there is no right or wrong”. While one may subscribe to that line of thought, there is also the thought, “you can either win or you can lose”.
It’s like playing Blackjack. How can you tell someone who consistently hits their “16” against the dealers “6” that what they are doing is wrong? It’s their money isn’t it? They can do whatever they want, right? But you know they will lose in the end."

Just another thought and Ted can remove if he wants because it's Off topic.


If TODAYS Pace of Race has such a massive impact on the outcome of a race. It should follow that Track Profiles are a waste of time and energy as they are irrelevant to TODAYS race.


Maybe thats why The Hat didn't seem to bother with them.


Anyway. Good skill i'll catch up with you all later.

I find it interesting that even if we were to examine all of the horses in this particular race, the question of which line to use for "Galan Fete" will never be answered or necessary - as Mike mentioned earlier, the horse was scratched.

May I suggest that perhaps a similar exercise be offered with a race that has yet to occur, where we can at least be able to double-check whether the one line picked (which is different than which lines were considered to determine the one used) was somewhat properly predictive? Not necessarily as whether one had the winner, but whether one accurately assessed the pace of the race.

And yet...rigorous paceline selection (fully or semi-automatic) and non-contender elimination, and wager selection often involving multiple bets (e.g. 2 horses) often leads to consistent hits and positive ROI.

Go figure. It just works. As does the visual Match Up, for those who can apply it.

This is the RDSS Forum. RDSS can use a fairly automated paceline selection strategy outlined by Doc in later Follow Ups and various variations thereof. RDSS is also the way Richie presented almost all of the Match Up teaching material in the Hat Check Forum, with Jim Bradshaw's blessing. The colour coding, Tandem presentation, moves against the pace, etc. And more to come.

I'm away for 3 days. Please everyone play nice in the meantime... :)

Ted

Winners auto pacelines
 

From Doc running on automation

Attachment 20647
Attachment 20648


From inside back cover of Follow Up 71
Attachment 20649

Ernie,

That sounds like a great idea! You could start one, or I will in a few days when I get back.

Ted

paceline
 

I pretty much do as this post says. For me it simplifies picking the paceline because what I have found is if I don't have a consistent method I start "outguessing" myself on what line to use. There are times I get so wound up in the right paceline I never get the race handicapped. The race runs and I am still sitting there debating if I am using the correct line or not. The only thing I have noticed in these threads is not much is talked about for qualified workouts. I use 90 days unless there has been a qualified workout.
DaveS