"Parx" Saturday 2/26 - Sprint
 

Here is race 5 from Philly (Parx :rolleyes:) Saturday going 6f. Post time about 2 PM Eastern

Race conditions, entries, Apv and Class ratings

pps with tandem finishes shown

continuing

For those so inclined:

1) FPLR?
2) Projected Pace?
3) Running Styles?
4) First Fraction times when the horse runs very well?
5) are there runners with multiple styles (Early and OTE) against todays projected pace?


If you like play this VERY softly in background:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CR3dM-GlZK8

lone E
 

thanks for the excellent music to relax It really helped me.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY Rich

Here is my workup

Attachment 21179

HI GUYS...

With the heavy rains Thurs nite into Fri morn we wont know how the track will play today...or even run at all ...this is Prx!!!

Lets look at em..

1) well, horses just dont win from that way back...out
2) 2nd in last..in
3) a closer and only 3 wins, out of conditions here...out
4) another closer, 2nd 3 back and nothing in last 2...out
5) nothing after layoff...out
6) 5 months off...presser...but out for me
7) early runner...in
8) early runner...in
9) early router, but its an ...out

2-7-8

lets evaluate early's...

#7 outbroke other speed in his last race and ran well..won this type race twice...2nd off layoff ...
#8 no speed to contend in his last race and still faded, his usual style..out

#2 finally drops into class he can run well in, but I think hes second best here

7-2
a no value race ...pass

gl
mike

OK they are a "runnin" Mike and Equibase showing fast track and no scratches.

Thanks to you, Bill V, Bill L, Pete C. Ernie and all others who take the time to share your thoughts and breakdown the races here. It is a huge help both to your selves and others who read them, I really appreciate the time you give "laying it out" for us

NO scratches and the track is fast for this race

Prx r5
 

OK guys here's my 2 cents for whatever it is worth...........I also like the #8 horse, the lone early runner coming back in 6 days after
keeping up .5 of a length to the lead horse to the stretch. I used a route line but the horse has won 3 x's at the distance.
But there is a red flag as RDSS shows that the median% has been increasing over the last 3 races..69.5%, 70.3% and 70.4%.
But nevertheless I still like the #8.

The #2 showed some life in its last race finishing 2nd but that was 52 days ago and only had a 3F workout 10 days ago.
I think something was not right with the horse after his last race otherwise if the horse was showing good form why not race him sooner ?
So I think the trainer is bringing him back slowly.

The other horse that projects early is the #3 and is dropping from 7.5 to 5 after his last race.
Seems the horse has lost his competetiveness at 7.5..may be a negative class drop but the expected high odds could justify a bet.

Can't say if I would play this one but my picks are 3 and 8.

Ernie

Parx Race 5:

Scanning the running styles, I only see two horses I would consider “Early” today, #7 and #8. #9 is an early horse in routes, but I don’t see this one being quick enough to get the lead today. Based on that, my initial feel for this race is Early.

#8 fought for 2 calls against a 22.2 45.2 in the last race. I also see it was a 6.5 furlong line and we are cutting back to 6 furlongs today…So I’ll project today’s pace off that line as 22.2 45.2 111.1.

#7 has won against a faster pace in the past (line 4), but last time ran second versus a slower pace than I project today (22.4 46.2). The horse fought for 2 calls, but so did #8 against a faster pace.

#7 does not need the lead to win. I’m not sure about #8 because there are no wins showing in the PP’s!:eek:

However, the OTE runners in this race don’t show me much. They are slow versus today’s pace or run from far back positionally. I prefer early to win this race and #8 is my selection.

Race 5
 

That was a nice one at good odds. Acclaimed #8 pays $14.00 a definite bet at those odds.....Ernie

Rich Birthday Race
 

Nice call Pete and Ernie on the 8 horse

I hope Rich can help me out as we were talking about this
a few days ago

I knew I was going to base this race on the 8 horse
because of this spot play

The eight ran against a fast pace of race and HELD POSITION
then faded Rich told me to look for this pattern

The layoff between the last two race Plus the quick turn around
had me believing the 8 was ready to win this time following the Long shot pattern
Attachment 21184
Nice work to Pete and Ernie Thank you Rich

That was a nice one! Well done guys!

Result
 

Tremendous work on a fat 14 buck winner!

Gate pops, the #8 goes right to the front and wins easily completely unchallenged during the race. From the pps a multi call FIGHTER and YES the horse that one should project todays pace from as pointed out by ALL the winning matchers!

Bill V, Ernie, Pete C ALL make out like "fat rats" :D.

Notice how they all had a different process of attacking the race (2 different software packages + a raw pp matcher) yet they ALL "saw" the winning #8 as THE dominant early buck.

Anyone interested should go back and re read each of their workups. Because as I said before the race ran each of us are unique in our "Mind's Eye" thinking process so one might pick up certain things from the 3 write ups that will help YOU as the individual thinker you are.

THANK YOU to everyone who jumped in to participate and I REALLY appreciate that each of you took the time to lay out your thought processes.
You gave me a great birthday present and "Hat" would be most happy with ALL of you :)