Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - Saturday 9/24- Woodbine's Ontario Derby

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Saturday 9/24- Woodbine's Ontario Derby - TM 102 Race Class

Here is Saturday's 8th race from Woodbine, The Ontario Derby for 3 yr olds.

9f on the Polytrack. Best of luck and good matching :)

Richie:

Is the 1 a known scratch or did you forget to load the PP's?

Bill

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster (Post 73919)

Richie:

Is the 1 a known scratch or did you forget to load the PP's?

Bill

Hi Bill
I see the pps there but here they are again! :D Hope you are doing great man

I think the 9 is the FPLR, though not at today's distance or structure. Otherwise, it would be the 7

#9: 7f at 122.7+2.8L = 123.2+6.4*4= 148.8

#7: 142.9 + 6.4 = 149.3

#9 appears to be getting better and is only horse that wants lead;; held well on dirt in restricted 500K race. I chose base from 3rd back 47.7-112.4 which should leave plenty in reserve to beat these. Can finish in 148.8

The 7 at his best ran from 4th, then 3rd and might be right behind the 9 at top of stretch. Best time of 142.9+6.4 = 149.3. Can make up ground from 111.3 six furlong time

the only other horse for me is the 3, coming off the pace from 6th to finish in 142, which adjusts to 148.4. Been finishing up the track on turf and only shows one race on poly. has not been gaining positions on turf as well as lone poly try. Hmmmm.

My picks are 9 and 7 to win, and adding the 3 for exacta and beyond.

Good luck,

Bill

Good morning guys. My final OTE contenders are 1,3 and 7. I will take the 7 as my top pick.

The 7 and 1 are the horses to beat.
The value dictates the (7) as the lone bet.
Or you could bet both. I find no problem with that if you are the one who is doing the betting.
If the (1) wins you might get back $6.00 or $7.00 for a $4.00 bet.:confused:
Not much of a return but it sure beats losing. Then again you could lose 2 bets instead of 1 and be that much more behind.:(
Oh well.:D

This is an extremely competitive race.

Not only are the pace ratings too close to call, but you've also got to consider the dirt/poly difference. For example, #1 Moonshine Mullin annihilates this field if he runs as well as he did in either of his last two races. However, those were on dirt and his polytrack races, although impressive, aren't anywhere near as good as those.

Compound that with the fact that the horse is improving and you have a real head scratcher. Will he still run forward on poly even though he's better on dirt? Does he have a dirt preference? Or, is he improving regardless of surface?

I used his third race back, but is that really a representative paceline?

I left all the horses in the printout, even though I don't think #6 Nanaimo has a ghost of a chance.

This is only one horse that has a lot of question marks. Several others fall into the "huh?" category as well.

I won't bet this race, but if I had to use it in a Pick3 I'd choose #1, #7 and #8.

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RACE:  092408     DIST: -  9.0 FURLONGS    COMMENTS:  WO 8th



NAME        F W     E P     S P     T T     F X     W X

---------------------------------------------------------

#1 Moon    52.35   52.35   52.35   53.10   51.89   52.12

#2 Silv    52.14   53.10   51.19   52.34   51.06   51.60

#3 Derb    52.59   52.16   53.01   52.57   53.03   52.81

#4 Alph    52.32   52.22   52.41   53.21   51.86   52.09

#6 Nana    52.33   51.83   52.84   53.37   52.21   52.27

#7 Hipp    52.60   53.22   51.98   53.24   51.57   52.09

#8 Bowm    52.13   52.33   51.94   52.21   51.89   52.01

#9 Oh      52.34   52.12   52.56   52.53   52.45   52.39



                       



         F 1     F 2     F 3     S C

Pace    52.83   54.91   53.86   53.22                  SC B/L

=====================================        =================

#2 Sil  52.83   53.63   49.29   53.10        #7 Hipp    0.00

#7 Hip  52.40   54.91   50.75   53.22        #2 Silv    0.55

#8 Bow  52.24   52.52   51.54   52.33        #1 Moon    3.85

#3 Der  52.20   52.10   53.86   52.16        #8 Bowm    3.95

#9 Oh   51.88   52.61   53.01   52.12        #4 Alph    4.45

#1 Moo  51.43   54.30   52.35   52.35        #3 Derb    4.69

#4 Alp  51.11   54.55   52.61   52.22        #9 Oh      4.88

#6 Nan  50.57   54.54   53.84   51.83        #6 Nana    6.17



                          

                            

                                    RANKINGS

                                    ========



             F W   E P   S P   T T   F X   W X   L P   D R  MED E

             ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===  =====

  #7 Hip      1     1     6     2     5     4     7     1   67.89

  #3 Der      1     5     1     4     1     1     1     1   65.94

  #9 Oh       2     5     3     4     2     2     4     3   66.34

  #6 Nan      2     6     2     1     3     3     2     1   66.13

  #4 Alp      2     4     4     2     4     4     3     1   66.76

  #1 Moo      2     3     5     3     4     4     5     2   66.88

  #8 Bow      3     3     6     6     4     5     6     3   67.03

  #2 Sil      3     2     7     5     6     6     8     4   68.36

Nice call, Bill L, getting the exacta. And Pete got the exacta and trifecta. Syn2 had the exacta in the top two FW.

One thing I've noticed about Woodbine...FW seems to be the dominant indicator on both turf and poly. Typically I go for SP on turf, but at Woodbine FW is really strong.

Attachment 23945

Nice job Bill L and Pete!

"Aly" I also have noticed looking at your Wdb reads the results of your top FW bucks and it is very strong. Keep it going.

Thank you to EVERYONE who jumped in and participated :)

A "different" look

Here are screen shots from an old "ENERGY" program. It applies to this race, so that's why it is here an not in the old Sartin programs section. The lines used for each horse only show on the 3rd screen. Here is the explanation for the horses and lines used.

#1 Moonshine Mullin-this horse was entered on the basis of its' second race back. In that race the horse finished second in a Grade II race. An obvious contender. I did not go back to a race on poly as the times in those races would just not have been comparable to other lines used in this race for other horses.

#2 Silverleo-an obvious throw out

#3 Derby Kitten-This horse was entered on the basis of its' GRADE III win, on a poly track in line 5. This is generally further back than I like to go, but it is obviously the only line that can logically be used. Look at this horse closely. Eliminate the last line where it was in a Grade I race on a yielding turf course, which it may not have liked, and the Kentucky Derby in line 4. Now look at what is left.

#4 Alpha Bettor-another throw out. This horses last two races are just plain awful. It is extremely doubtful that this horse is ready to compete against a Graded Stakes WINNER and a Graded Stakes PLACED horse. And even if you used the line 3 back, 1.14.00 at the 3/4 mark certainly isn't going to put it among the contenders in this race.

#5 SCRATCHED

#6 Nanaimo- I gave this horse every benefit of the doubt and put it in off the line 3 back. It was so lacking in total energy compared to the rest of the horses that I took it out.

#7 Hippolytus- This horse was put in using the last line. There was no reason to use any other line. I was doubtful that this horse could win given that its' only two wins came versus state bred maidens and state bred NW2L in an allowance race. Hardly the credentials for beating a graded stakes placed horse and a graded stakes winner. The horse ended up running a very strong race.

#8 Bowman's Causeway- I put this horse in off its' second line back although it was on dirt. I did not use the line 4 back for the same reason as mention for the #4 horse in this race. The 3/4 time was just not competitive enough versus the rest of the contenders.

#9 Oh Canada-I'm sure this was the "real favourite"! I put this horse in of the line 2 back. It appeared to be the only logical line to use.

All of this may seem foreign to you, but in the old days, like Howard use to say, "90% of your handicapping should be done BEFORE you turn your computer on". Of course everything back then was manual entry. Today you have to turn your computer on just to get started!

As you will see on screen 3, above the horses and their rankings, you will see the word "Early". This meant the program had determined that the race would run early. Naturally this is based on the times (lines) entered for each horse.
As you will see, the program got the winner...for the wrong reason!
Of course it really didn't matter. This horse had a ranking of "1" all the way across and would have come up as the projected winner no matter what.

The idea was, if the program determined the race was going to run "early", you would play the horses that were the #1 and #2 early horses. Even then, you had to be selective with odds OR PASS THE RACE if you didn't get the odds you wanted.

As far as value is concerned, consider the following:

#1 3/2 graded stakes placed
#3 7/2 graded stakes winner
#7 4/1 beat state bred maidens and state bred NW2L in allowance company

I leave it up to the reader to determine where the "value" was.

Hello Bill,

I received an email from P&C that indicated you wrote a post in response to mine. Your post does not show here, so I will paste your response here so readers can follow along. Here it is:

Good explanation of your line selection
I'm confused as usual I would say that a $9.00 winnner
is good value So much so that before he passed. Doc ask Ted Richie and me
to send him races from RDSS with winners only paying over $9
Both Para-grams and B name the winner an DERB yes its variegate is Early but
since both A and B agree could
*Early* be the default setting. ? would need to see the line score to determine
this

Is there a way you can show the line scores
for EP LP HE FX FW

Thanks
Bill

Now my answer.

Hi Bill,

Thank you.
I didn't mean to make "value" confusing. I was simply attempting to let the reader see that when you compare those three horses, the true value was in the winner. There is certainly no value in a 4/1 horse that has only beat state bred maidens and NW2L when you can get 7/2 on a graded stakes winner and obviously 3/2 is no value on a graded stakes placed horse when you can get 7/2 on a graded stakes winner, especially when the readout shows the graded stakes winner in such a strong light. Of course, that was based on my line selection which can be very different from someone else's line selection.

I am not aware of any "default" setting in this ENERGY program. The program gives you whatever it determines is correct. (whether you like it or agree with it or not) Of course, there is a means of changing it (if you desire) as you can see on the 3rd screen.

Also, there are no "line scores" or "BL/BL" in this ENERGY program.

All the rankings are on the 3rd screen shot. IN the old days, if you wanted to know the line score, you had to manually add them up! lol

Hi FTL

Im still confused Im sorry I just can't understand what you mean
about the no value in a $9.00 winner sorry for being ignorant. If you could run that by me again.

I deleted the message because I saw the EP LP FX TT FW readouts
so I was able to answer that part of my question on my own

Thanks for your view and readouts
Always get pleasure from seeing your work

Bill

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V. (Post 74006)

Bill,

If you read my post again, I never said there was no value in a $9.00 horse. In fact, I was pointing out the opposite, that the ONLY value was in the winner at $9.00. Here's what I said:

I was simply attempting to let the reader see that when you compare those three horses, the true value was in the winner. There is certainly no value in a 4/1 horse that has only beat state bred maidens and NW2L when you can get 7/2 on a graded stakes winner and obviously 3/2 is no value on a graded stakes placed horse when you can get 7/2 on a graded stakes winner especially when the readout shows the graded stakes winner in such a strong light.

As you can see, everything I said pointed to the fact that $9.00 on this winner WAS VALUE!

Let me take it a step further. IF the winners last line was that Grade III stakes win on a poly surface, rather than 5 lines back, what do you think this horse would have paid? Do you think it would have paid $9.00? I don't.

Ok Thanks FTL Now I see it
Sorry for the confusion I still don't see myself making bets based on man made class ratings
Using the proper comparable line is the heart of success with the Sartin Methodology
excellent look back at this race I appreciate your efforts

GS
Bill

FTL,
always a pleasure to read your, sometime short, treatise on the subject of class.
Class is an integral part of the handicapping process, without it, a good handicapper can fell to mediocrity.
imho

Quote:

Originally Posted by gl45 (Post 74010)

Thank you and I agree.

Class and conditions are too seldom discussed.