Pace Line Practice Pick
 

Hi
Here is a example of something I see once in a while
If line 1 is good but lines below are good
Here is when Line 3 is good.

This horse is runnung in Race 6 today at Lurael

I used line 3

Here are my thoughts about using line 3
I have read about layoff lines Not to use the last race before or after
a long layoff

I think line 3 is ok here

Line 3 is a win
In 5 of 7 races before the layoff Winning Drive had 5 plus races
Did the trainer give the horse a nice vacation after earning so well for
a while

In the return race it ran at 5.5 at PID on poly soft surface easy work out ?

In last race Winning Drive won at 5.5 furlongs

I think line 3 is better for todays 6.0 distance

My mentor suggest not using 5.5 lines in longer races because the
turn time on a 5.5 race is the only true turn time when the horses
run the fraction on the turn

Thanks looking forward to comments and ideas


Bill

MY 2 cents - I would put in lines 1,3,5,and 6 and look at them all.
Much like using K Gen, is any line abberent to the others? If not, I would use any of them. Third off a layoff after showing improvement is a powerful angle that can mean continued improvement today. I would like to see that the last race was not the best of the four.

Thanks Tom
 

Tom I entered lines 1 3 5 and 6 into KGEN

Likes Line 5 the best

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Thoro
 

So line five looks much better than the rest on the readouts

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I see no reason to look further than the last line here. It's a representative race where the horse ran well and it's not a top.

Just for your information, and not having anything to do with paceline selection, the horse has a 4% chance of running a new top and a 19% chance of running as well as it did three races back.

Well, I guess that does have something to do with paceline selection, but you wouldn't have that information based on what you're looking at.

What would be more confusing would be if the last race were run on a synthethic surface, but that's moot.

Incidentally, The Elevator will be very tough to beat this race.

When using RDSS, I use the last line, unless I see a significant reason not to. In this case, the last line looks okay to use to me.

Jim

Good Morning Bill

I am using the last line , it's within norm of it's speed ratings , race class and somewhat current .
I am looking at a Trifecta using the 1 line 1 , 7 line 1 , 6 line 1 and the 4 line 2

Scott

comments
 

Bill V mentioned that the only "true" turn time comes in 5.5f races. Now I know I told Bill that, so I feel I should address that point. I believe my example to Bill was that 5.5f races have "true" turn time since since it is the only distance where the second fraction of the race (turn time) is actually run ON THE TURN. Compare that to a 7f race where the second fraction (turn time) is run on the straight. Which turn time do you think will be faster? The 7f race turn time. Therefore, if you use a 7f line in a 5.5f race, the horse with the 7f line is almost always going to have a faster "turn time". It is difficult to match horses from these distances. The characteristics of the races are too extreme. Howver, having said all that, sometimes you just have to use the best line available.

I agree with "Doc" and with JimG and also Alydar_David, I always like the last line UNLESS there is a "VALID" reason NOT to like it. In this case the horse is coming off a win 43 days ago. There is nothing wrong with that line. It is at a "similar" distance and on the same surface type. There is not reason to go back to a worse race 59 days ago on a surface that is not the same as today's. And there is certainly no reason to go back 239 days to get another line where the horse won. The last race is a good "recent" race at a similar distance and on the same surface and I see no "VALID" reason to go back to another race.

TO BILL V. - KGEN deoesn't "like" line 5, KGEN just shows you that line 5 is the "fastest" line of the 4 lines mentioned. Here are the lines, distances, finishes and times of those lines.

Line 1 - 5.5f 103.7 1st
Line 3 - 6.0f 110.9 1st
Line 5 - 6.0f 109.0 2nd, 'nk'
Line 6 - 6.0f 111.3 2nd, '1/2 length'

Let's just eliminate line 1 because it is a different dstance than the other 3 for purposes of comparison. Without running any lines through any programs, is it not possible to see that line 5 is the "fastest"? KGEN or other programs are not saying they "like" a particular line, it is simply showing you which line is the "fastest" line.

In a perfect world, all of our contenders would have lines at a distance that are all identical to the distance of today's race, but our world of horse racing is not perfect, so we have to do the best we can with what we have.

I joked with Bill V about his using RDSS1 to illustrate paceline analysis in the 'Older Sartin Programs' Forum (since RDSS2 is too new to render RDSS1 an 'older' program just yet :eek:). But I understand it is easier to deliver details to make a point. I will use RDSS2 to deliver mine, but the details would be the same in at least RDSS1, and possibly many earlier programs, give or take adjustments.

Re paceline selection, I try to follow (at least) 2 main principles:

1. Consistency of method
2. Conservatism (don't use the best line if a worse one will do just as well - this builds in 'reserve' ability, or ability to perform better than rated)
3. Be demanding (yet not too demanding) of current form (my 3rd of 2 main principles ...)

Here is the horse in question and its position in the mix of others chosen on, hopefully, a consistent ranking approach (generally, Perceptor Total/Total Energy from last 3 lines or so):


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It's last line was not its best ever (3rd best - line 5 was best, also as per KGEN). If you use the 5th line, it ranks the horse on Top. I don't need the horse to be ranked on top to bet it - I'd like it to be ranked in the Top 3, that's good enough for a 2 horse wager based on odds offered.

As usual, analysis of a single horse is not done in isolation. If I use the 1st line, it ranks in 4th position but then I would not be making consistent line choices on all the other horses. I believe that when making decisions in a current race, I am really making decisions in 20 races similar to it. If my decisions in this race result in a loss (or a non-winning wager decision) I really want to know if the analogous decisions would lead to me winning money over the subsequent 20 races - I want to keep my decisions consistent because the outcome of any particular race is certainly not consistent.

Which then leads me to think of the principle of Conservatism, but which also leads me to make a judgement call on the horse which outranks our #7 horse when we use its (inconsistent) last line, which is Alydar_David's #6 The Elevator. Here is the picture using the 1st line (a conservative choice, i.e. not its best of last 3) for the #7 and a view of the #6:

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I don't like the fact that this #6 horse emits declining Total Energy despite pretty consistent Pace of Race TE, I don't like that it runs consistently less early positionally in each of its last 3 races, I don't like that its E/L Differential sticks are so Early (I don't have a 6f model for energy disbursement for LRL), and I don't like that its Morning Line is 8/5 yet it is not higher ranked given consistent paceline selection for everyone else. For me, this is a horse which could surely finish in the money, but I want more from it, at 8/5 ML, to consider it a Win contender. (And I'm irritated that I can't figure out how it even qualified to run in its last race: a non-winners of 2 since April 29 :mad:)

SO - excluding #6 from Win contention (either hide it or regroup it) - elevates our #7 horse back to Top 3 position despite using a conservative line (its last line) to rank it.

I know this analysis employs specific readouts of RDSS to make the point, but it would be the same in Val, Spec, likely Sythesis and PaceLauncher at least. Now we wait to see what odds are offered on our top 3 to see if a wager is available. Using ML odds, I would image that the #2 is one of them and likely #1 the other. I think #7 may have some 'splaining to do regarding his 43 day layoff, despite his interim good workout.

But I think this illustrates some of the principles I would use.

Re using mostly last lines, Jim, I do tend to start out hitting that 'last line' button and reviewing it closely, but I am cognizant that everyone else out there is doing that too, and decisions made on that basis (I imagine) will tend to produce generally lower mutuels than going back a bit further on a consistent basis.

The bankroll tells the tale ...

Ted

And I believe this is the reason "Doc" changed his initial approach to pace line selection. I don't believe he thought his initial method of pace line selection was "bad", but rather, to common. Even non-methodologists can see that a horse ran a good last race with a high speed rating, so I think Doc came up with the "best of last 3 distance/surface". This gave players an opportunity to land on a horse whose last race may not have been "that good", in favor of a line a little further back that might land you on a price horse. "EVERYBODY" looks at a horses last race. Nevertheless, there is a whole bunch of space between a last race that "wasn't that good" and just plain old bad form and bad form is no reason to go further back for a line.

Now that Ted posted up his BL/BL for that race, and going back to the discussion of "turn time", could there be anything worse than a 7f race from CT?? ( lol ) How many "turns" is that race? TEN? (just kidding) It is at least 2 turns, so exactly "WHERE" does the "turn time" occur? Hard to compare that to any turn time at a mile oval. In this case, the horse with the 7f race at CT, although ranked 1st in most categories, it rank LAST in turn time, if I am reading the snap shot correctly. I'm not sure if "TT" is turn time or if "HID" (where the horse ranks 4th) is the turn time. Either way, for a horse that is on top and has so many "1" rankings, 7th or 4th for turn time isn't very good, all other things considered. I would suggest the cause is the 7f line at CT.

Likes
 

Thank you to everyone .. I went with line 1 for horse 7 I really appreciate your help.. I hope I dont look to foolish to the better folks here but if I
want to improve

FTL I use the term "likes" cause Im a Jersey guy .. Its Meadowlandseses
I think of our one and only Richie P. We would refer to top picks as
the one the ""machine likes: So just as calling a computer a machine
might sound odd so does KGEN likes...:)

I bet the 1 and the 7 with the 6 and 4 as my other two contenders

thank you to all

Bill

No need to apologize, I'm a Jersey guy myself!!! :cool:

Ted,

LOL, the bankroll always tells the tale! I agree on going back further when doing turf races, however, for dirt and poly I think sticking with the last line in most cases is the way to go. I do this because, I want to see how strong the low odds horses are if they run back to their last race. I think getting it down to 5 using TE as I learned from Bill is a solid method. I then get the value from betting horses other than top choices in the BL/BL. When the favorite is real strong, passing is usually the order of the day. You can catch a lot of $9-$16 horses this way. Recognizing vulnerable favorites is key to solid win betting.

Vulnerable favorites:

1) Dropping 2 or more classes after being competitive at the higher class last out.

2) Doing something for the first time (stretching out, surface switch for first time, etc.)

3) Claimed last out and going to a lesser barn.

4) Negative jock switch.

5) Hard last race running withing 2 lengths of winner all the way around the track to win or lose by a length or less.

I am sure there are others, but those are some of mine.

Jim

After seeing the graphs, line 1 and 6 are similar on both early and sustained.
Line 5 is the aberent line I mentioned earlier. For me, it would be either 1 or 6.

Bill, thanks for your post which generated so much intelligent discourse. Your KGEN readouts sparked a lot of interest.

Tom made a valid point about not using an aberrant paceline. You want to use a paceline which is representative of how the horse typically runs.

delmarscott2004 remarked that it's wise to select a recent line within the norm of speed ratings and race class.

For The Lead made a couple of intelligent and informative posts which are typical of his writing style.

Ted made the insightful observation that declining Total Energy coupled with running consistently less early positionaly in each of a horse's last three races is not something which inspires one to take the rubber band off the old bankroll.

And JimG (the most improved player over the years I've ever seen) gave some valuable pointers about vulnerable favorites.

All in all an excellent thread.

Not to detract from the quality of this fine thread, for amusement only here are the T-Graph views of the top three finishers and the race results.

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