Churchill Grade 1- Friday 11/25 - TM 113 Race Class
 

Here is Friday's 11th race from Churchill - The Grade 1 Clark Handicap for 500,000 bucks going 9f on the dirt.

Good horses, good money, good food from "Gobble-Gobble" day all point to a fun matching race here. Best of luck/skill to everyone who chimes in :)

Using Rdss1 so you can see tandem finishes on middle tab

Proj pace?
FPLR?
Early and OTE groupings?
Tandem throwouts?


**Hat Helper** - CD 8f dirt - Belmont 8f dirt - Belmont 8.5f dirt - Belmont 9f dirt are ALL run around ONE turn **

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RichieP:
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Hi Ritchie,

Happy Thanksgiving to you and your loved ones,

I'm not sure if you are showing the PP for Saturdays race.
Looks like You posted the PP's for Fridays race to me.
The Clark runs tomorrow, Friday.

Hi Bill

You are right man the race runs tomorrow!! Oops and sorry for the goof, let me see if I can get the heading changed to the right day :o

Have a great Thanksgiving Bill, wishing you the very best today and every day :)

Ritch,

You picked a great race.
I'll lead of with (11, 1)
If I had to split them, I would favor
the (11) Wise Dan.

Fri. CD
 

Race 11.

10- Will's Wildcat
6. Flat Out
11. Wise Dan


Bob

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone…

I have been following this board for three years now, but I registered just recently. I just want to say that the spirit of Doc Sartin and his methodology lives on with this board and with everyone who uses one of his programs or the breakthrough concepts he conceptualized.

In this match up, most of the entrants are coming off slow fractions, mile and ¼ races, and or marathons of 12 furlongs or longer.. With only one lone speed (Hey, where did I hear that before? :_)in this match-up, the race will center on the pace fractions of the sprinter stretching out. Most incidents like this match up, the expected pace will be pedestrian that by the time, most of the entrants put on their running shoes, the field up front will have a huge advantage up front by the top of the stretch…..

#2 Alma, #3 Demarc, #4 Stately, #7 Pleasant,#9 Mister are coming off slow fractions races and will be at a disadvantage in this match up.. I don’t see any great sustain fractions from these entrants. #5 Mission and #13 General are coming off dismal effort or tandem races where their current ability or form are in question. #8 Headache is interesting as he appears to have come off a non-effort race…So he is the only one off this group that I will leave in for the match up analysis.

#12 Prayer seems to have come off the fastest pace of 45.4 for 4 furlong from his last paceline but that second fraction where he got a breather of 26.2 on the turn will make him vulnerable in this match up…Grade 1 races always has some entrant that will set a fast pace, burn the turn on the second fraction or some entrant will have an impressive last sustain fraction. They don’t give away Grade 1 races for mediocre entrants….

This leaves #1 Ruler on Ice, #6 Flat Out, #8 Headache, the lone speed #10 Will’s Wildcat, and#11 Wise Dan

#1 Ruler, we can use his 2nd paceline back to match him up in this group..
#6 Flat Out-this one is tricky as he wasn’t up close to a fast pace race nor does he come off a great sustain fraction race from his mile and ¼ race..but anyways, we must have a paceline to evaluate him, I will chose the 3rd and 5th line back..Yes, I can hear the hecklings and the arms raised up from the front of the class, but mile and ¼ races are not great races to compare visually or with old Sartin programs.
#8 Headache, same situation as Flat Out, 5th paceline back, his last race was a non-effort, so in reality I am going back to the 4th line back .

For those doubters, I will bring up the last two Breeder’s Cup Classic races to come up with a current pacelines for Zenyatta or Drosselmeyer or even Da Hoss in his second Mile Turf victory that accurately determine their true abilities… Grade 1 horses are a different breed if they have the abilities.

# 11 Wise Dan – the last paceline is sufficient to evaluate, even though, the 2nd paceline from a turf race has an impressive sustain fraction won by Gio Ponti.

#10 Will’s Wildcat will be tricky, but he does have prior route races to compare his routing ability..One good race which happens to be at the same CD racetrack even though it was a maiden race.. It is better than guessing or using some distance projection voodoo.

Bottom line…It appears that Headache, Wise Dan come off the best sustain races so it is question if they will be close enough to catch #10 Will’s Wildcat. I can take the safer route and play Headache to place in this match up as #10 Will’s route ability is in question. Good Luck to all..

Good morning…

Projected Pace: #10 looks like the early speed here. Since it comes out of sprints, I went back to the 9F Saratoga line (5) and used the 47.7 111.4 for today’s pace.

Early and OTE: I labeled 10 as early and the 12 as E/P (primarily because of how it always seems to break 1st. All the others are pure OTE to me. After looking at Line 5 for #10 I decided this race will run OTE.

Match-Up:

My final OTE contenders were the 6,7,11 and 12 but I ended up picking the 11. Although they’re at different surfaces and distances, I see 4 wins against similar to today’s pace or better, including once in the Churchill slop.

Cd #11
 

I see an honest but not overly fast pace here with the 10 early; 5 and 11 E/P; and 2, 12, and 13 as P types.

I think the pace will go something like the 10 horse's race 5 back at Saratoga which is 47.7 1:11.4.

The 5, 11, and 13 came out of a tandem at KEE which the 11 dominated. The pace in that race went 47.2 1:11.4 which the 11 had shown in other races.

I see the contenders here as the 1, 6, and 11. I'll put the 10 in there for pace purposes.

1: This horse won at 12F in a slow pace. Against faster paces, not as good. Out.
6: Sits 4th or 5th but against slower paces. Out.
10: Failed against 47.7 1:11.4. at SAR. Out.
11: Has handled the pace he will see today more than once.

The 11 is my choice.

Tim

going with the 5 & 12

I am in awe of the depth of Matchup analysis around here! Here are my RDSS final contenders. I will be seeking wagers among the top 3, and hoping that #2 is still offered at a good price.

Good luck everyone (and welcome, lone speed)

Ted

Attachment 25010

Attachment 25011

Big races for big horses

Who has grade 1 or 2 credentials (win or place) 1-5-6-8-11-12-13

Tandems eliminate 2-3-4-7-8-9 and 13 which knocks out the 8 and 13 from the graded list.

Graded list is now 1-5-6-11-12 with the 10 as the lone early frontrunner who should get pressed into oblivion unless he gets the uncontested and open length lead that he needs. I think not today.

I think the 5 and 11 press early and try to take over heading for home, but against this competition and specifically against the 11 the 5 has faded in the past. My only concern about the 11 is some not quite stellar dirt performances. His grass and poly races are consistently good. I will keep him in for now. Eliminating the 5.

So now I am left with the 1-6-11-12

I am going to match everything against line 3 from the 6:

6: 48.1-112.0-136.3-149.2 where it closed 7-5-3 (within 2.1 at mile call)


1: won its grade 1 at 12 furlongs and against slow pace (114 ish); not very accomplished at 9 furlongs; runs from way back except once at 9 and then faded, so I will take last race

1: 47.8-112.8-138.3 closing 10-10-9 by position and 12-10-4.4 by lengths
note that the 1 beat the six in this race by .6ths of a length passing him late in stretch

11: Probably the 3rd of 3 horses in the group behind the lone E. Only knock I can find is that dirt routes project to about 149.8 or slower. Off last race fractions he is best, but good enough for dirt is the question.

11: 47.2 - 111.4 - 135.9 - 148.7, closing 4-3-1, winning off by 4


12: Won 3 graded stakes in a row on dirt and barely lost last one. Not in love with track class of graded races, but one was a grade 2. Part of the pack behind leader and may have best potential against this pace.

Last race: 45.4 - 112.0 - 136.7 - 149.2, running 4-4-3 while being only 1.2-1.1 and 1.5 lengths back. The slower early fraction of this race should help the 12 the most if the Remington track and time is real.


I think the 12 will be close enough to make the best move and then I like the 6. Both have done well at 9 furlongs in graded races. Big ?'s about 11.

I would box 12-6-11 for exacta and include the 1 in trifectas. Win on 12 and 6.

Good luck to everyone.


Bill

Well, question answered on the 11. Finish was 11-5-6 all of them legitimate Grade 1 or 2 types.

AWESOME work by Bill H, Pete C and Tim B nailing the sweeeet 9/2 winning #11 as their solo pick! Mr. Hat would be very proud of all of you so a tip of the old "Stetson" your way gents:)

Newcomer "Lone Speed" (welcome!) and Ted C have the winner in their mix and Bill L has him in exacta consideration

Thank you EVERYONE for taking the time to participate. I hope you all are having a terrific weekend

Weekly review
 

The first thing I feel compelled to do is agree with Ted's assessment. There are several good posts on this race. I enjoyed reading them.

Well, here is my weekly review of the “matcher’s” race and all the usual disclaimers apply.
This is not the best race I have ever seen because there are issues with a few of the horses that keep them from getting lines. As you all might remember, I keep fairly strict guidelines regarding line selection, so we’ll see how it turns out.

This is a Grade I race so looking for horses that have been successful in graded races seems to be the order of the day.
OK, first things first. Let’s get rid of the pretenders, 2, 4, 7, 10, 13. They all have a ML=>20/1.
The remaining horses all have a race in the last 90 days so they all remain in for further scrutiny.


#1 – LINE 2, last race was 20 days ago at 10f and I do not use 10f races, line 2 was 67 days ago at 9f, this horse certainly has graded race experience and success at the top level of graded races, there is no reason to go back further
#3 – LINE 2, last race was 21 days ago in the mud, I’ll excuse that race and go back one line from 62 days ago, I would rather have a line from a dirt track but there is not one available in the last 90 days, thius horses has had graded race experience and success although not at the same level as the 31 horse, there is no reason to go back further
#5 – LINE 2, last line was 27 days ago on the artificial surface and I will use that as an excuse to go back one line from 83 days ago on dirt, last race is the only race showing on the artificial surface and the horse may not have like it, many people would not use line 2 since the horse showed early speed and faded, however, ENERGY does NOT pick horses based on final time or speed ratings, line 2 shows this horse as a pace player, this horse has had graded race experience and success at the top levels of graded races, there is no reason to go back further
#6 – LINE 3, interesting horse in that it shows two races across CD and neither was very good, my initial thought would be to eliminate this horse on that basis, but I will put it in and see what happens, last race was 20 days ago and the second race back was 55 days ago but at 10f and I do not use 10f races therefore line 3 becomes the line from 83 days ago at 9f on the dirt, this is another horse with experience and success at top level graded races, there is no reason to go back further
#8 – NO LINE, this is one of the horses with issues, the horse has two races in the last 90 days, both races are at 10f, since I don’t use 10f races so this horse will not be used, this horse has experience and success at top level graded races but I will stick with my guidelines, its’ last line isn’t good anyway
#9 – LINE 3, this appeared easy at first just use line 1, but the time was so slow perhaps because of the muddy track condition that using that line “dooms” the horse to failure in the software program, line 2 is at 10f and I do not use 10f races so line 3 becomes the line even though it was on the artificial surface, so line 1 was 21 days ago, line 2 was 48 days ago and line 3 83 days ago so the horse has 3 recent races, this is another horse with graded race experience although at lower levels of graded races, there is no reason to go back further
#10 – NO LINE, although I dismissed this horse from the outset, this would not get a line no matter what, it’s last 4 races going back 96 days were all sprints, this horse appears to be a pace player and is very short on class having only had a 3rd place finish in a grade 3 race
#11 – LINE 1, this one is easy the last race is a win just 27 days ago, the only negative is that it was on the artificial surface, this horse has won a couple of grade II races and fits well with this group, there is no reason to go back further
#12 – NO LINE, I really don’t think this horse has a shot, the horse has had some graded race experience and success but al lower levels of competition, its’ last four race being at PrM, MNR, LaD and RP pretty much tells the story, if this horse is to be a factor it must run up on or near the lead and will have a hard time doing that with the #10 horse in the race as well as the #5 horse.

Below are my ENERGY screen shots. You should note two things.
1 – on screen4 ENERGY recommends “EARLY” and under the column heading “EP” you will see the number 1 and 2 ranked horses in that column are the #11 and #5 horses.
2 – on screen5 you will see that the #11 horse owns the first two fractions of the race (designated with “o.oo” at the first two calls)
You may remember a couple of weeks ago there was another horse that had this same attribute.
Another thing to notice is the #5 horse whose line may have been questionable turned out to be a pace player in ENERGY and the second choice based on the EARLY variegate.
The idea is to get horses in the software based on how they should run so the program can "see" the race and make its' best determination as to how the race will run and on that basis make an appropriate suggestion as to which horses may make the best wagers. If you take notice to the total energy figures, the #11 and #5 horses rank 3rd and 4th in total energy.

Anyway, I am just providing this for your information and hope you find it interesting.

Great Job again FTL....

Excellent reasons on selecting lines and all should pay attention
This , I believe, is the 4th time you've done this with exceptional results

I agree with Mike's assessment of FTL's analysi for this race. One should take heed to his reasoning for choosing the lines that he did, especially on FTL reasons for choosing Mission's paceline..even though visually, the paceline may not appear to be the best line to choose. Old Thoromation would like the fastest pace line or the best sustained fraction even though a horse may have faded by several lengths facing the fastest pace of race or some fast sustained last fractions. Great analysis by FTL as I can always learn from examples. Nice to see that old thoromation is alive and well after so many years... I think Doc evolved from that program after some bitter partings with some fellow contributors..

Looking at your energy match up screen, I can see clearly that #11 Wise Dan dominates the 1st call match up handily and that he will be one tough foe at the wire even though he is not the #1 total energy horse.

Screens from Rdss
 

I am going a little of the subject here, how do you post screens from Rdss?
I could not figure out even how to print from Rdss.


Alex

Alex,

I am answering your question here: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?p=75952, to not interrupt the flow of this particular discussion. Any questions, ask in that thread. Hope to see your screenshot back here.

Good luck!

Ted