New series of matching races coming
 

Lets put the series of TM Race class 100 or higher to bed :) We worked 19 races and the post time favorite won exactly three of them (15.75%)

Starting this weekend the focus shifts to another grouping of races - claiming races ONLY where the proj pace comes from an on the lead runner at both 1c and 2c in the last race at TODAYS track and distance

Dolce Vita!

Forty
 

Hi Rich

Forty Prayers is running at Parx on Sat 12/3
Its not a great race - only 7 entered but I think the 6 horse fits what
you have in mind

like i said its not the greatest race but I thought it fit
Attachment 25064

Hi Bill
It's Mom's birthday today and Karen and I are runnning out the door to go visit her. I haven't looked at the race to be honest but he looks like he could be it. Are there consistently faster "E" bucks in the race or is he the "one"?

Hope all is well man and Karen says a big hello!
Love
Richie

Forty
 

Hi Rich

Happy Birthday Mrs P :)


Rich I will put up the PPs and the only tandem was the 1 and 3

Attachment 25077

x
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x
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horse
 

3

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4

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5
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horses
 

6
Attachment 25083

7
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tandems
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My Look
 

This race is for non winners of a race since June 3rd
There are many who have won races since but for claiming prices
under 7500 and thats ok in this race

Here are my lines

My Look

Code:

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1H Forty Prayers  Line 1 win Same distance surface SR83
2H 2 very fast races last two I will use line 2 closer to
  todays distance  This horse seems to not like races over
  6.0 SR 87
3H Seems slow for this group. declining speed last 3 races
  maybe the 26 day rest will get it back to it its best speed
  numbers of 78-79 which still seem slow to this group
  no line or last line ?
4H Line 2 Same distance surface as today SR 83
5H Line 2 Same distance surface as today SR 85
6H Line 1 Same distance surface as today SR 83
7H line 1 similar distance surface as today SR 83
  shows a 89 3 back on a sy parx 7.0 track

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Hi Richie..

From what I seen , they were very good races and the matchers here hit quite a few of them at good prices. I don't think it was a bust.....aren't we looking to get races with vulnerable favorites?

Hit us with your stuff.... We can do it !!

Enjoy your day and put a smile on your mother

Mike

Parx #3
 

Nice race Bill. This race is tougher than it looks on the surface. Thanks for putting it up.

Here we go:

The speed horses are the 2 and 6. Most of the time when I have two early horses, one of them wins. I might be out thinking myself this time but I think the pace will be slow and the race will be won by an S type who runs well against a slow pace.

1: Late runner. OUT. Hasn't won against slow paces.
2: E/P type. I'm going against this horse.
3: S type. Too far back in sprints.
4: S type. 5th or 6th position at 1st call in sprints. Too far back. Out.
5: S type. 4th position vs 23.2. Close enough. Contender.
6: E type. Needs to be loose against slow fractions at 1st call. Has not run well against fast paces in sometime. Out.
7: S type. Sat third vs. 22.9 in last and 4th vs. 23.1 9 back. Contender.

Since the 2 and 6 do not break in the 1st and 2nd position regularly, I think the pace will go about 23.0 at the first call. The 7 will be the closest and can run in the third fraction.

I pick the 7 to win.

Tim

Tim
 

Thanks for looking at the race

Sadly The 5 broke down on the backstretch just at the second call
The 5 was in position but with it out of the race this left the 2 with a easy lead
The 7 made a bid but faded to finish 4th
The 2 won and paid $3.60

Thats horse racing

PRX 3rd, review
 

Ok, this is a NW16MX, the “X” means (in this case) winners of a race for a claiming price of $7,500 or less are not penalized for the win(s), they are still eligible.
There are 7 runners and none of them have a ML=>20/1 and all of them have a race (or more) in the last 90 days, so they are in for further review.
Five of these runners have won their last race. Not surprisingly, those races were all for $7,500.
Three of the horses just beat NW4L.
One beat NW16MX
One beat NW26MX
The three horses that just beat NW4L are the lesser quality of the last race winners.

Here are the lines.

#2 – LAST LINE, it is a win vs. NW16MX just 18 days ago over the same track and surface, I would like to have a line from a 7f or 6.5f race but one is not available
#6 – LAST LINE, this is a winning race over the same track and at the same distance just 11 days ago although it was vs. NW4L
#7 – LAST LINE, this is also a winning race over the same track and at the same distance just 25 days ago vs. NW26MX
#5 – LINE 2, last race was a route race 24 days ago, so the next line is two back at 7f over the same track and at the same distance just 41 days ago, the horse finished 3rd in that race beaten 1.5 lengths and is dropping down in claiming price while staying in the same condition
#3 – LINE 3, last race was a route race 25 days ago, I will give the horse an excuse for line 2 since it was moving up in condition from a win on line 3 vs. NW3L which was also across the same track and surface and at today’s distance just 55 days ago
#4 – LINE 2, last race was a route 11 days ago, line 2 is a win across the same track and at the same distance vs. NW16MX for a claiming price of $7,500 just 39 days ago
#1 – LAST LINE – another horse in the field coming off a winning race albeit vs. NW4L just 32 days ago, the race was across the same track and at the same distance

Before I post the ENERGY screen shots, just one note, every horse in this race is in ENERGY off of a line at either 6.5f or 7f EXCEPT the #2 horse, which is in off of a 5.5f line. For that reason, they will all show better second fraction or hidden energy or turn time (however you want to refer to it) because they ran their second fractions on the straight away rather than on a turn. The #2 is entered off of a 5.5f race which is the only distance that has a “true” turn time. Even if you used a 6f race for the #2 horse, it would still be deficient in the second fraction as compared to the other horses.
My point is, you should not let this second fraction deficiency sway your opinion of the horse.

Here are the ENERGY screen shots. ENERGY suggests "early" so you will be looking at the "EP" column in the rankings on screen 3 and also note the "match up" on screen 2 and also the Early Exdc matchup bars on screen 4.