Rebel Stakes, Oaklawn Race 10
 

Before Scratches

Part ii

Part iii

This is double Contest Race, otherwise it is used in both PAIHL amd Road to the Roses, and yes it is 3yr olds, but this time of year it is always a challenge to do these.

I will cap this later but wanted to post it for others to see

Patrick

battery dying Patrick :eek:


here is my look

without a cause
 

Hi Pat and Rich

Here is my look
Attachment 26590

Attachment 26591

Okay here goes a little at midnight.

The most obvious choice is the 8 horse, hard to see how this one loses, but it does not need to win to make the Derby, so it could try something different, or better yet Bounce

That brings me to who may have bounced last out, the 4 horse is the likely canidate, and also gets new rider, Robby Albarado, not sure this is best thou, as Channing Hill is deciding to ride Assmussen's 2 horse, also a horse who may have had a very troubled trip last out, with Hill aboard, so it will need a major improvement to be competetive here, as a 100 speed rating may be needed here, elimanting the 2 horse for me.

So who can run a 100, maybe the following 3, 4, 8, and 12 have done so already.

6 and 10 horse can improve mildly and be there too!

That leaves the 7 horse who is a horse never really having to fight too hard or run too fast , winning it's last 3 races, thou the speed figs are really low compared to the others in here, could it improve 30 points today, I think not , but this is 3 yr olds, so maybe

The last horse to be considered here is the 11, and on a winning streak at OP helps and has Calvin on board and also working him too, may want to check out how the rail is doing here, and can he improve enough to run a 100+ speed fig, yeah he can.

Best works 11, 6, 4 and both 1's, but who uses this anymore, me.

I am totally confused here, as 4,3,8, win contender's

6,7 11,12 all definetely under neath and maybe cleaning up a speed duel.

Will look again before race to see if any scratches and see how I see it in the morning

Now below you see 2 different paceline scenario's, 1 being last line and the other best of last 3 , sorta

Oaklawn Race 10
 

Hi Everybody
Here is my look.Jim

2-7-8


Bob

3,4,8

Hi

Just a quick question on selecting all the horses is this the normal practice or we trying to let the software dig up something from the past. Just looks very confusing having all the horses in the race. I'm sitting on the fence with one.

I believe this comes down to a determination whether the race will run Early or Other Than Early.

If Early, the 3 and 8 are eminently qualified and I'm hard pressed to separate them, based on their last race tandem (raced heads apart the whole way - won by the #8 by 1/2 length). But, if you add the possible additional Early pressure from #4 (who can also run non-Early), then my judgement is that's just too much Early.

So my picks are the best Other Than Earlies: #4 and #9, which is how I bet in the RDSS/Sartin/Bradshaw Contest (plus #3 for an Exacta, as longest odds of the 2 clear Earlies, and Tandem reversal, FWIW)

Attachment 26604

Attachment 26605

Attachment 26606

Good luck to everyone!

Ted

This could be a simple race to pick, the best horse's on paper, or pp's

8 3 and 4 , also 7 has done nothing wrong


But if a closer is going to take it as Ted suggest's may be the case, then I pick

5 and 9 to pick up the pieces


In the Contest I did 2 different picks

11,3,4 and then 3,7,8

But for real money maybe a few 4,5,9 over 3,8 exacta action and then a cover bet

8 over 4,5,7,9 all bets depends on the odds, as a few win bets may be better bets, so watching the tote board will be crucial in real $$ bets

Good Luck all

Enjoy my Day, (yes my day) St. Patrick's Day

Patrick

I like 8-3-4-9 in that order.

Jim

Well the best horse won, rating this time and a deep closer came flying late, so much so that he needs to be flagged as a horse to watch for improvement, maybe getting rolling sooner next time out. I did not do well in the Contest's with this Race, maybe next time.

Thank you all for your participation

Thanks for the race Patrick. My top 3 total energy runners was the trifecta.

Hey Richie,

1st. Thanks for capping my Races, now

When you have the scenario as you did here, the Tot, which is the Total Energy, right?

Would you consider the 5 as a play, being 3rd TE and yet 5th ,Tied for 5th) on BL/BL and then 6th on Primary LS , yet lot's of color in his line, for me this means look really hard at him, dig deeper , another reason why RDSS is so easy and fun , the color makes it easy not to overlook a gem buried beneath the top picks, something a model or knowledge of track bias and speed bias for the day comes in handy when digging deeper, as this case would a OTE be a strong play today, or not, just my thoughts, maybe you see it different, or can add to it.

Last thing put the 5 horse in your horse to watch list, or ...


Patrick

Totals
 

This race and Rich's readouts look like something out of the Follow Up
look at these vital readouts The place horse was
Top 3 Total Energy + # 3 Total Pace Potential
# 3 Supp Line Score
# 3 Late Fractal
# 1 N= Normal Fractal
# 2 PF2
# 1 TS+F3
Top # 1 Decleration
# 2 LPR
# 2 Hidden Energy
# 2 FX

Attachment 26613

this horse vital readouts ranks were: 3-3-3-3-1-2-1-1-2-2-2
11 factors....
and people are too lazy to keep a track, class and distance model or profile....I wonder.

Morning Bill and Pino
First I didnt bet the race.

When I select lines I always check the top 3 total energy bucks to see whats there

(last week race with Patrick the #1 total energy buck went off 45/1 and placed paying more than most winners)

The corrolaries Bill put up reminds me of Aline Best and her use of the "totals" categories - TE,TS.TPP,SUP,NFRAC,FX etc. She always paid attention to these factors especially when longshots appeared in several of them.

The only way she knew these factors were producing good priced runners was by recordkeeping so Pino is right on the money!

This weeks place horse was 30/1 on the morning line