Grass Races
 

Could one of you PROS help me with GRASS RACES.
ON the BL/BL screen what are the best things to look at .TT, LP, TOT DCL

Does anybody mind pointing me in the right way.

thanks

Turf
 

Here is my blue print
It probably has flaws. but here is what I look for in Turf races

On Turf I look for
As usual use += plus pace lines
Look at the horses total past performance and see how it runs in + races
look at the TPR screen and look for good LPR ratings in those + race

When I pick contenders that have a good + race and a competitve
speed figure or CPR in a recent ( about) 90 days I enter those lines

Now I look at the top VDC horses I look for the best
*LPR
*Total Energy
* Hidden Energy
*Total Speed
*Total Pace Potential
*Deceleration
*Total + F3 - 3rd fraction
*If the race is for older horses
all of which have many turf lines
look at APV and Class

Doing this will get you very good contenders

Bill V

THANK YOU BILL V!!
do you know if doc talked about grass races in the fu?

Question for bill on his post
 

Bill:

For + you mean a turf race right? I think you are leading the previous poster on a good route. The other thing to look at in turf racing is horses who can't get through. This is sort of a lesson from your trip handicappers. But after the race is done, sit back and watch the back of the pack of a turf race. You will see horses that tried to make a move, couldn't or were blocked.

Matt D.

Turf
 

Stormbringer -

There are a bunch of grass race examples throughout the Follow Ups. I can dig out some and give you some references - too late tonight though (!).

But check out the audio tapes (on the main screen - "Audio Collection") from the Las Vegas seminar in 1992. Marion Jones gives 2 or 3 different talks on those tapes, one of which he delves into turf racing.

Sustained pace is usually king on the turf, but not always. Winners on the inner turf at Saratoga are frequently on the lead. I was up there the last week of July and got home a wire to wire horse on the inner turf at a whopping mile and a half.(Saffron Hall in the 3rd on July 25th.) Paid 12 bucks and change.

I'll see if I can get some articles for you to check out over the weekend.

Regards,

Chuck

Sustained Pace
 

Is sustained pace displayed any where in the RDSS system?

I could not find it and I am new to RDSS.

Matt

Follow ups
 

If you know where any of the turf seminars or information is on the follow ups can you please send me a link?

Matt D.

Turf
 

Storm & Matt:

I found 2 articles on turf handicapping in 2 of the older Follow Ups. There are more, I'm sure, but these 2 are good:

Follow Up 27: Page 42

This is an article by Marion Jones. He's the same guy that discusses turf racing on the '92 Vegas tapes (see post above). These are old examples, but the only thing that has changed since then is your handicapping program.

Those tapes from Vegas are really good and worth listening to. Howard talks in depth about the creation of the Method, as well as what it takes to be a consistent winner.

Follow Up 11: Page 75

This is a "Problem Race" feature written by Doc Sartin himself. He knocks down a $75 horse in this race. Again its old, but it still applies.

Get with Bill V. to get the equivalent readout in RDSS that is sustained pace. He has already listed the main factors he uses to analyze a turf race in a post above.

Regards,

Chuck

toward the late 90's The Hat commented that turf racing was changing because tracks all over the country were carding much cheaper turf races. The old #1 SP horse or best final fraction horse was not winning with the same frequency. And that is exactly my point. If you immediately assume that Sustained horses or final fraction horses are going to win the turf races then you do yourself a big disservice. Many price horses are Early, Early Presser or Presser in running style and get the lead today and wire the field.
Unlike dirt racing, speed has great pari mutual value on the turf. I have a race from yesterday that I will post as soon as I can remember how to do that.

Here's the chart and my primary handicapping screen. This is not a huge payer but it is so obvious that the #2 horse is so much better than anything in the field Early and the supposed class horses will all be chasing her and therefore out of position.[ATTACH]Attachment 38284[/ATTACH].

If you make assumptions that all turf races are going to run Sustained you miss many good prices on fairly obvious horses. Handicap the race, set how it sets up pacewise before you jump to conclusions.

Turf
 

Hi Mark -

Agreed on a lot of what you say. It really doesn't matter what was winning last last year or a while back. What matters is knowing how its running now. I found the inner at Saratoga running pretty early this season. Check out the 5th on Friday August 29th. I had seen enough wire to wire winners that I singled the #1 horse to win and place. I put him with #2 on top of the exacta over top of themselves plus the favorite. In the actual race, the 2 horse was 2 1/2 back at the 2nd call and caught the 1 horse at the wire with a head bob.

No. 2's median energy was 65.88% (rather sustained) but I included him because visually, he's an early presser. No. 1 was a 67.50%. Even when a horse wires the field on the grass, his energy distribution is usually sustained. But like you say or infer, that doesn't mean these are always closers.

My worst play of the year at Saratoga was not playing the no. 2 horse to win in this race. He paid 69.00 to win. But the other side of the coin was that I had my highest exacta of the season ($598.00).

I'll check out your posted race in a minute.

Best! Chuck

I subscribe to Jim Bradshaw's Match Up teachings. So I don't use any of the screens or factors in RDSS2 accept the Original Screen which is Raw Data. In 40 years of handicapping I think I have seen maybe a handful of truly biased race tracks. A number of those were drying out tracks that were extremely tiring or surfaces that had purposely been rolled and hardened. The bias in my view is created by the Match Up and the composition of the runners in the race. It is true that turf courses across the country dry out after the spring rains and get much harder and faster this time of the year. But handicapping in Southern California taught me that years ago. Particularly Hollywood and Del Mar are like extremely fast during the summer and fall meets.
Fast horses are fast horses whether running on dirt, poly or turf. If they are allowed to gallop along on a clear lead they will seldom be caught. Stretch gain is greatly over estimated due to the manner in which final fraction velocities are calculated. By the time the horses turn for home they are all decelerating so stretch gain in a combination of the leaders decelerating rapidly and the sustained runners decelerating less rapidly. It is an optical illusion. When a horse has to compete strongly for the early lead or in the turn, he is expending energy that will cause premature deceleration. That is what sets up the race for OTE type horses. Then generally the horse closest to the pace but not consumed by the speed duel will inherit the lead and win. If these Pressers get sucked along too fast too early then they too will succumb to the one run closer, who is a slow horse that gallops the first two fractions and is decelerating at that point the least rapidly of the group.
That is how I analyze a race. The race is usually over at the first call, however may extend to the 2nd depending on the composition of the field.

Mark
 

Hi Mark

I like your analysis of the FE race I won't bore the group with my entropy readouts here in the main forum but you are right on the money. The winner simply broke well from the 2 hole ( its my # 1 total energy and EP/DV )
and the tandem horses from the restricted 30 K stakes race just chased

Well done Mark

Bill