Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   Aldens dad August (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8567)

Aldens_dad 08-03-2012 08:09 AM

Aldens dad August
 
Just got back from an ugly business trip!!! Can't wait to start working with RDSS and picking some cherries!!!

Good luck to everone and congrats to the July winners!!!!!

Aldens_dad 08-03-2012 09:30 AM

8/3/2012 SPA Race 1
 
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6f sprint going with the #1 and #5 both ranked 1st and 2nd in VDC and LS the #6 came in first in the primary tab but threw out looking at past 2 races, he is the ML-2 favorite so well try to beat her

So far the horse on the lead at Saratoga in sprints has won like 40% of the races, something I saw on TVG last nite so hopefully that holds true with the #1 having the best EPR

50$ W 1
50$ W 5

Aldens_dad 08-03-2012 11:32 AM

8/3/2012 SPA Race 9
 
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Whats not to like about the #7 here in race 9. 7 wins past 10 races and 5 of these were graded stakes, best early speed, goes back to jockey that has won 7 times with this horse over last 10, workouts look great, ML 3.5 .... this might be at very low odds at post time but a wins a win

$100 W #7

Aldens_dad 08-04-2012 10:06 AM

8/4/2012 Suffolk Race 1
 
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8f claiming 12k

usually don't like to select a horse from an extended layoff but will go against my typical thinking and trust the program. I selected the last line for #6 which was over 6 months ago and a turf line but even if I went back to the 3rd last race he was still in the top 2 BL so again I will trust the computer. I did 2 savescreens and circled a few important readouts so anyone following could understand why I selected these contenders. Here goes nothing....

$50 W #2
$50 W #6

no place betting here!!!:D

Aldens_dad 08-04-2012 12:11 PM

8/4/2012 Suffolk race 10
 
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5.5f 4k claimers, dismissed ML favotite #4 since he is coming off a long layoff and looks to me like alot of hype in his past races...

Got rid of #1 since only 3 of last 10 ran on dirt and they were his worst races by far

Hope my decision was correct...even with those 2 horse on the BL screen my contenders are still ranked 1st and 3rd

$50 W #3
$50 W #6

Aldens_dad 08-04-2012 01:12 PM

Suffolk Race 1 results
 
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winner winner chicken dinner!!!

feels good to get the first one for August:):):)

Aldens_dad 08-05-2012 02:42 PM

8/5/2012 Arlington Park Race 4
 
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8.5 f claim 25 k after eliminating the #1 and #2 as the pretenders I had a pretty good idea who's the real contenders

My screenshot says it all

$50 W #7
$50 W #5

Aldens_dad 08-05-2012 03:55 PM

8/5/2012 Arlington Park Race 5
 
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Race 4 didn't work out lets see if Race 5 is any better...

$50 W #7 and #8

Aldens_dad 08-05-2012 04:49 PM

8/5/2012 Arlington Park Race 8
 
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$50 W #1 and #3

time to right the ship:cool:

Aldens_dad 08-06-2012 11:14 AM

8/6/2012 Delaware Race 2
 
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Well went 0-3 yesterday...back to the basics, watched a few seminars from the library last nite and will not apply my own logic since thats what the program does...

Feel good about todays secondrace at Delaware Park

6f claim
going with the top 2 picks and the best early and late speed/pace figs as well

$50 win 7 & 4:):):)

Aldens_dad 08-06-2012 12:00 PM

8/6/2012 Delaware Race 8
 
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8.5 f

hiding the #2 since the only race to put him in the top 5 is selected, betting he doesn't duplicate the trip from 3 back

like the #7 and #5 who have both won at this class and like the distance/turf

$50 W #5 & #7

Aldens_dad 08-06-2012 01:44 PM

8/6/2012 Delaware Race 2
 
#4 scratched so going with #2 instead

$50 W 7 & 2 3 mtp

Aldens_dad 08-06-2012 03:14 PM

8/6/2012 Delaware Race 5
 
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like the odds on the #8, horse continues to improve each trip

$100 W #8

Aldens_dad 08-06-2012 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aldens_dad (Post 82707)
like the odds on the #8, horse continues to improve each trip

$100 W #8

went from 5/2 to 1 in last minute.....

still a winner I guess

Aldens_dad 08-06-2012 03:28 PM

8/6/2012 Delaware Race 6
 
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gotta roll with the #6 here, too much hype on the #2 since its last race was a good one, did ya see the other 6 trips behind the last one.... blah..

$100 W #6

Aldens_dad 08-06-2012 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aldens_dad (Post 82709)
gotta roll with the #6 here, too much hype on the #2 since its last race was a good one, did ya see the other 6 trips behind the last one.... blah..

$100 W #6


#6 DQ for interfering with horse trying to pass him, can you blame him!!!:mad:

Aldens_dad 08-06-2012 04:10 PM

8/6/2012 Delaware Race 7
 
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Going with the #2, good odds and exellent workouts

$100 W #2

Aldens_dad 08-06-2012 04:53 PM

Race 8 the #7 scratched so all the $$$ goes on the #5

Aldens_dad 08-07-2012 10:08 AM

8/7/2012 Parx race 1
 
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8f allowance going with the best 2 BL and best 2 late speed/pace

$60 W 2
$40 W 5

Aldens_dad 08-07-2012 10:23 AM

8/7/2012 Parx race 2
 
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5f allowance

pretty evenly matched field IMO, like the #3 and #2..

#2 is improving and #3 has won at this level several times and has a good jockey for Parx

60$ W 3
40$ W 2 this guy will need his best trip to win

Aldens_dad 08-08-2012 09:52 AM

8/8/2012 Suffolk Race 2
 
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Well Parx showed me no love going 0-2 yesterday

Today we'll start with Race 2 at Suffolk

6f claimer like the #4 and #2

#2 is coming off 5 trips on the turf and seems to be changing running styles from an early horse to a closer and it seems tio be working
#4 is dropping in class and has the best early speed and last 3 trips have been good

will try to beat the #6 horse who is a big class dropper and shows good speed as well

$50 W 4 & 2

Aldens_dad 08-08-2012 02:10 PM

8/8/2012 Suffolk Race 6
 
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$50 w 8
$50 w 10

Aldens_dad 08-09-2012 11:31 AM

8/9/2012 Arlington Park Race 1, 2 and 4
 
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Race 1 $50 W 7 & 5
Race 2 $50 W 6 & 1
Race 4 $50 W 4 & 8

Aldens_dad 08-09-2012 02:47 PM

8/9/2012 Arlington Park Race 3
 
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$50 w 5 & 4

Bill V. 08-09-2012 03:41 PM

A1
 
Thanks Aldens dad

Your post is A1 top notch, with the date, track, and race# in the title area, and a little comment with the screen shot. It is just what I'm hoping for

GS
Bill

Aldens_dad 08-13-2012 11:23 AM

8/13/2012 Delaware race 2
 
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missed some more freebies I see.. the funny thing about camping is you forget about the information highway... atlease I do.

Trying to be a little more selective in my races and hopefully it will payoff

This race is all about horse stretching out to a route, only one horse the ML-favotite has recent trips 8f every other horse has gone 6fs in the past races

I like the #2 and #3 to win

#2 Win $60
#3 Win $40

Aldens_dad 08-13-2012 12:42 PM

8/13/2012 Delaware race 4
 
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Don't usually like maidens but this one may have some value$


$100 place #3

Bill V. 08-13-2012 01:14 PM

Winner
 
Welcome Back Aldensdad

Quote:

Trying to be a little more selective in my races and hopefully it will payoff
Ted and I have a little side discussion on this subject

We agree to disagree although once again this weekend proved
in my favor more is not the way to go.

In The June July and 1/3 of August Very few who have done over 5 races
in one day has a positive ROI for that day

The biggest wins have come from those who have done less than 3 races a day

just a thought
Bill

Aldens_dad 08-13-2012 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V. (Post 83053)
Welcome Back Aldensdad



Ted and I have a little side discussion on this subject

We agree to disagree although once again this weekend proved
in my favor more is not the way to go.

In The June July and 1/3 of August Very few who have done over 5 races
in one day has a positive ROI for that day

The biggest wins have come from those who have done less than 3 races a day

just a thought
Bill

Bill,

I completely agree that less is better but my problem is more of my inexperience and seeing a race that has value versus one that doesn't. I know some races where the 2 favorites will win most of the time are poor betting opputunities and maiden races with FTS are not good bets.

I could definitely use some help with this. Not asking here just stating my position.

Today, I went through all the races at Delaware and narrowed down the 2 I liked the most so hopefully today will show that I do know value or something like that

Thanks for your comments!!!

Aldens_dad 08-13-2012 01:56 PM

Race 2 Delaware results
 
#2 wins at $3.60

a whopping $8 profit :(

Aldens_dad 08-14-2012 12:38 PM

8/14/2012 Suffolk downs race 1
 
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ignore comments about the weather, its been raininh here in Ohio for past day so maybe track is OK there in Boston...

anyways trying tio beat the chalk reguardless

$50 W #8
$50 W #5

Aldens_dad 08-14-2012 01:08 PM

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OMG.... never saw the 7

closed like a freight train at 65-1

Aldens_dad 08-14-2012 03:35 PM

8/14/2012 Suffolk race 7
 
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comments on screen shot.

$50 W #7
$50 W #8

Aldens_dad 08-14-2012 03:40 PM

Suffolk race 7

7 scratched and #8 1-2..no way

new bet $50 W #2 and #5

Aldens_dad 08-20-2012 10:14 AM

8/20/2012 Suffolk Race 4
 
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comments on screen

bet:
$60 W #1
$40 W #2

Aldens_dad 08-20-2012 02:27 PM

8/20/2012 Suffolk Race 7
 
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comments below..

$50 W #3
$50 W #7

Aldens_dad 08-21-2012 03:34 PM

8/21/2012 Presque Isle Downs Race 1
 
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comments below

$60 W #6
$40 W #4

Aldens_dad 08-21-2012 03:37 PM

8/21/2012 PID Race 2
 
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comments below

$60 W #3
$40 W #6


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