Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   Bill V. (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8776)

Bill V. 10-30-2012 03:42 PM

Bill V.
 
Looking forward to a good month for all

Bill V. 11-02-2012 05:30 PM

SA6 BC turf
 
60 win 5
20 w/p 9

Bill V. 11-05-2012 03:42 PM

Parx race 6 11/5
 
The 1 is a hide

$50 win 6
$25W/P # 9
Screens and comments

Bill V. 11-05-2012 04:09 PM

just missed my place bet
 
4 Attachment(s)
With a $80 horse winning the place bet would have been nice
Here is the winner

Attachment 31574

Attachment 31577

Attachment 31576

Bill V. 11-05-2012 04:19 PM

here are some other looks
 
4 Attachment(s)
first since the 4 was in the top 5 TPR last line only

here is how line 1 rates
Attachment 31578
Attachment 31579

with line 3

Attachment 31580
Attachment 31581

Bill V. 11-11-2012 04:35 PM

Parx race 8 11/11
 
25 w/p 6 and 11

Bill V. 11-11-2012 04:48 PM

Typo
 
3 Attachment(s)
I blew it ! I typed 6 I wanted 7 :mad:

oh well
Attachment 31821


How many times has that happened I'm thinking about the odds
and I typed 6 instead of 7

Lines
H1 Sus Line 1 +
H2 No form
H3 EP line 2 +
H4 No form 20/1
H5 MS win EP line 1 +
H6 press Line 1 (+)
H7 Sus line 1 +
H8 EARLY Line 1 +
H9 EARLY Line 1 +
H10 LO NL Early
H 11 Sus line 2 +
H12 Line 1 0 onlt MS win





Attachment 31819

Attachment 31820

Bill V. 11-11-2012 05:13 PM

Not much here GG race 2 11/11
 
50 win 2 and 6

I worked this race with Ray Buffaloxp


H1 No Form
H2 sus line 1 +
H3 No form
H4 Early line 1 (+)
H5 EP Line 1 +
H6 Press Line 2+
H7 EP Line 2 +

Bill V. 11-11-2012 05:29 PM

Race 2 results
 
3 Attachment(s)
The 4 wins Ray gets the win and place :)
Attachment 31824


My look Just not there this one
Attachment 31823


Attachment 31822

Bill V. 11-14-2012 04:51 PM

FL race 9 11/14
 
$50 win 8
$25 w/p #5

chuckg 11-14-2012 05:23 PM

That's how to do it Bill V. Nice $45 exacta there.

Bill V. 11-14-2012 05:24 PM

I love 5.5 furlongs !
 
4 Attachment(s)
The 8 goes wire to wire and gets me a Blue Star
and the 5 placed :)
Here are my pace lines and ESP running styles

H1 Press Line 1 +
H2 No form
H3 EARLY Line 1 +
H4
Early Press Line 1 +
H5 E E/P line 2 +
H6 Scratch
H7 No form
H8 Early line 4 same distance +

Here is the segs
Notice all the runners are Early or Early Presser ESP energy horses
So who will take the lead?
Will anybody have any late energy to close and charge down the lane?
Attachment 31968
Attachment 31969

here is a screen shot just as the rounded the turn its 8 3 5
Attachment 31970
Here is the results chart
Attachment 31971

pktruckdriver 11-14-2012 06:51 PM

2 Attachment(s)
Looks like we had the same horse's, and see I do bet them Bill, as I am sure you do too. But only small amounts till I fine tune this winning machine ...

Best of skill for Nov

patrick

Bill V. 11-14-2012 08:14 PM

Profit
 
1 Attachment(s)
Good work Patrick
I hope you had a profitable day

With the proper contenders and pace lines you get good results



Attachment 31974

Bill V. 11-14-2012 08:17 PM

Mr Blue Star
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by chuckg (Post 86209)
That's how to do it Bill V. Nice $45 exacta there.

Thank You Chuckg
Speaking of Blue Stars
Please send me in a PM your snail mail address !
I have your Blue Star Prize ready to ship
to you !

Bill V. 11-16-2012 04:52 PM

FL Race 9 11/16
 
$50 win 1A
$25 w/p #10

H1 EP line 1 +
H2 S/P line 2 +
H3 NL
H4 Scratch
H5 NF
H6 No recent dirt form
H7 Early line 1 +
H8 No recent form Early
H9 Early line 2
H10 Sus Line 2

Bill V. 11-16-2012 05:11 PM

Not in the picture
 
3 Attachment(s)
The 8 wins and pays $19.60

here is the winner
Attachment 32062
Attachment 32061

Attachment 32069

Bill V. 11-16-2012 05:36 PM

Result Chart
 
1 Attachment(s)
The way they ran
Attachment 32071

Bill V. 11-17-2012 07:07 PM

BHP race 6
 
$60 win 4
$20w/p 2

Gs
Bill

Bill V. 11-22-2012 04:41 PM

BHP race 4 Thangsgiving
 
1 Attachment(s)
$50 win 4
$25w/p 6

Gs
Bill

Attachment 32176

Bill V. 11-22-2012 05:28 PM

That worked out well
 
3 Attachment(s)
The 4 wins and the 6 placed

Here is the results The 4 and 6 pressed the Early 1 and 5

The 5 had just 1 MS win
but the 4 and 6 dominate the LP readouts
Attachment 32179

Attachment 32177

Attachment 32178

Bill V. 11-23-2012 03:39 PM

PRX race 6 11/23
 
1 Attachment(s)
$50 win 1
$25w/p 4
Attachment 32187
Gs
Bill

Bill V. 11-23-2012 07:41 PM

Results
 
3 Attachment(s)
here are my notes for the race
The 7 got the jump on my 1 horse and went wire to wire

I used the last line for horse 1
It is its best ever race
But it is the last line.and very recent with 2 works since that stakes race
I called the 1 an EP
I expected it to be just behind the 7
My thoughts were it catch the seven


My thoughts were the 7 and 9 were early
The 9 was eliminated because it would not out break the 7
I fully expected the 7 to break on top of the 1 but since the 1 had a better
F1 and 2nd fraction and EPR than both the 7 and 9 I felt it would press the 7 and win

It was a close finish but there was a bumping incident which caused the
1 to bump the 9 and lose a step
The 9 claimed foul on both the 1 and 7 but the ruling place the 1 3rd

My notes as I worked the race
BTW The 5 should not be on my readuts as I called it Ugly
I noted this but had already made the screen shot
H1 EP Line 1
H2 Sus Line 2
H3 EP Line 1
H4 SUS Line 1
H5 Ug
H6 Sus NF
H7 Early Line 1
H8 EP line 1
H9 Early MUs
H10 Press line 1
Earlys = 7 9
NTL 9 EMU 9 is out
F1 = 1 10 7 3
TT = 1, 10 4, 7
EPR 1, 10 4
My bets 1-4

Attachment 32191

Attachment 32192

Attachment 32193

Bill V. 11-24-2012 04:06 PM

Parx 7 11 24
 
$50 wi5
25 w/9 1

Bill V. 11-24-2012 04:37 PM

Results
 
4 Attachment(s)
The 5 gets me a Blue Star
Attachment 32212

Here is the winner
Attachment 32209

here are my readouts
Attachment 32210

and the result chart
Attachment 32211

Bill V. 11-24-2012 04:47 PM

mis type ruling
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V. (Post 86504)
$50 wi5
25 w/9 1

I made a typo
It appears like my bet was $50 win on the 5 and 25 win on the 1 and 9
You cannot bet
3 horses!
but I meant to type $25 w/p on the 1

By rule I would have had to take away the 1
and changed the bet to
$50 win on the 5
and 50 win on the 9

If the 9 had won I would have not taken the win
I would have scored the race a loss Just because I know I did not want the 9 at all

I tell everybody else so I have to tell my self
BE CAREFUL

Bill V. 11-25-2012 08:22 PM

GG Race 8 11/25
 
$50 win 7
$25w/p # 6

Bill V. 11-25-2012 09:35 PM

results
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V. (Post 86564)
$50 win 7
$25w/p # 6

The 6 did place but the 8 goes wire to wire

Attachment 32247

Bill V. 11-29-2012 03:58 PM

Fl7 1130
 
25wp15
the 7 will pro run them down but i need some races

Bill V. 11-29-2012 04:26 PM

Result
 
3 Attachment(s)
The 1 wins not much
Attachment 32338
My notes
3+ F Starter 8000 race
have run for a claiming of 8000 in 2010-2012

Records and running styles
H1 6-16 EP7
H2 5-34 NF
H3 5-12 E7 NTL
H4 5-29 E/EP7
H5 10/23 E/EP6
H6 scr
H7 8-23 SP2

F1 = 17 3 Good bye 3
TT = 5 4 7
EPR = 1 7 3x
FFR = 5 4 1
The 1 is a sure bet got to beat the 7
so take the 5

Attachment 32336

Attachment 32337

Bill V. 11-29-2012 04:51 PM

Fl4
 
4 $50 6 $25wp fl1130 race 9

Bill V. 11-29-2012 05:44 PM

6 wins
 
3 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V. (Post 86701)
4 $50 6 $25wp fl1130 race 9

The 6 wins
Here are my notes and readouts


Race 9 5.5 furlongs
3+FM NYbreds NW of a state bred race other than Maiden Claim or starter less than 15000 not considered

H1 4/17 P4
H2B 6/30 E/EP6 NTL
H4 3/14 E4 NTL
H5 2/13 EP7 NF
H6 5/18 P1
H7 5/31 P3
H8 8/89 P4 NL 20/1


F1 = 4, 2, 6
TT= 6. 1 4
EPR= 4 2 1
FFR = 6, 4, 1

Bet 4 and 6

Attachment 32342
Attachment 32343
Attachment 32344

Bill V. 11-29-2012 06:47 PM

GG race 5 11/30
 
$ 25W/P 2 and 4

1 opened up at 1/5 ! probably will chew these up

Race 5 5.5
CL4000 3+

Records and running styles
H1 11/37 EP5 Line 1
H2 5/19 E/EP5 Line 1
H3 6/47 E/EP6 Line 1
H4 6/33 P5 6/33
H5 6/37 NF 20/1 ML
H6 4/32 SP1 Line 2
H7 S1 4/38 line 4 is comp
H8 3/29 EP5 Line 1

F1 = 4 7 6
TT= 6 1 2
EPR= 6 1 3
FFR = 7 4 2

Bet 4 and 2

Bill V. 11-29-2012 07:01 PM

8 wins big
 
3 Attachment(s)
The 8 wins big
Attachment 32350
Attachment 32351
Attachment 32352

Bill V. 11-29-2012 07:50 PM

Bill V GG race 7 1130
 
$50 win 7
$25w/p 4

They are betting the 6

Race 7 FM3+ CLm16000 NW3L

H1 3/13 P2
H2 E7 2/16
H3 E8 NTL
H4 EP2 in sprints 2/10 Pattern in lines
H5 EP3 dropping 2/10
H6 EP5 2/7
H7 P4 2/8

segs F1 = 5, 6, 7
TT = 4 2 3x
EPR = 5, 2, 3,x
FFR = 4 5 7


Bet 4 and 7
hope for the 4's pattern from 365 days

Bill V. 11-29-2012 08:18 PM

The 7 wins
 
5 Attachment(s)
But the 4 was a stupid bet
Do I really see this horse winning from that far back ?
NOT !

[ATTACH]32360[/ATTACH
Attachment 32358


Attachment 32357

Attachment 32359

Attachment 32364

lone speed 11-29-2012 08:55 PM

If you will permit me to jump in.....


The chosen line to evaluate the #4 was correct but in context of the races leading up to today's race...

First, the #4 is coming from route races and he is a closer.....it would be best to consider him if the race were loaded with early speed.... so this horse was the "ugly" horse...

Second, the four did not attend to the early pace in the last route race...he closed off some soft fractions on turf.....where he ran late....today, he will be asked to expend energy early where more likely he will falter......nothing is etched in stone.....thanks for my two cents...

Bill V. 11-29-2012 09:04 PM

Ls
 
Thanks LS
I was not sharp that race I called the 4 a EP2 but felt It would probably
might be a Presser in todays race
In its other sprints it lags at the break but seems to get to about 2 behind
on the turn. I has hoping for the turf to dirt effort from line 6
when it won the NW2L race but it was a foolish bet today.
RDSS was incorrect in the 19 behind readout It was second in the F1 and F2

Bill V. 11-29-2012 09:48 PM

Penn7
 
60 win #8
40 Place #7

Bill V. 11-29-2012 10:04 PM

360 !!!!
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V. (Post 86725)
60 win #8
40 Place #7

$3.60 :o

What happened to my 8/5 !
at least the 7 placed too :D

Attachment 32368


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