I' m Running A Test on TUP Race -3, Need Help
 

here you are Bill
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barb craven:

Barb, Thank you for your help.
So far my tests were inconclusive.

Partsnut,

I hope that you and your wife are doing well....

I think that I have a remote idea of what you are trying to do...I did a couple of races using the adjusted speed ratings from Rdss from the races that Bill V. worked and enter the pacelines into some of Sartin' s old programs... From limited races and from prior studies that I have experimented with energy numbers from a buddy, it is not always the highest adjusted ratings or speed number race...I believe it has been always been in the best early pace fractions or best last fractions.....I will try to post some examples of what I am trying to say...

Anyways, good luck in what you are trying to test....

Thanks for the well wishes.
I did a comparison of this race with a couple of programs that I use to see which one would spit out the best results. I tested the RDSS numbers against the Sartin speed rating adjusted by variant method.
Naturally, either method was good and is dependent as to the pace lines I pick, but honestly the old Sartin method was better. Here is what came up running both methods with AmerVar (Taulbot Pace Calculator).
The top screen shot came from the RDSS adjusted speed numbers.
The bottom screen shot came from the Sartin Speed rating adjusted by variant from the DRF As you can see, one method had the winner in the top 4 and the other in the top 2. Both were good but the latter was better. I also review a contender screen that a friend had sent me from HSH and the Sartin Speed Rating adjusted to variant outperformed it as well. MPH came in with outstanding results using the SSR.

TUP 12-22-12 (Race-5)
 

TUP 12-22-12 (Race-5)

Here's another contentious race that favors a sustained type.
The speed points and pressure gauge (29X0) indicates this.
Lot's of early type horses in this race.
I personally favor the 3 & 4 horses.
I used MPH for this race using the SSR numbers adjusted to variant.

With respect, it's ridiculous to compare relative value of different tools and methods on the basis of a single race, much less a low class Maiden Claiming race like this one. Even weaker to borrow numbers from one method and adjust them by a different method. Each method may have its own well functioning, built in and coherent adjustment system - and each would likely be rendered less effective - over a large number of events - by mixing and matching numbers from one into the other. Just my opinion - and advice to others, FWIW.

It is meaningless to base any comparison between methods on 1 race.

Also FWIW, here is how the race would likely have been done by almost anybody using RDSS, who has been following any of the discussions here about paceline selection and Contender identification. A different outcome than your mash-up above:

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Wow This is fun
 

Wow we get to post all kinds of programs

Bill H Here are your lines into KGEN/Thoromation
and the RDSS results

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1-4
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Ted, you did very well with this race. If anyone knows your software well and how to use it, it's you.

Being as I did not do the race with your software or know exactly how you did use it in the example races, It would not be fair for me to assume which or what method or methods are better. As, I said, The pace lines and methods I used were of my choice.
The purpose for my tests was to see how accurate your adjusted speed numbers were. Evidently, they worked well for you. I fell a little short with them.
I am not faulting you, anything or anyone.
If you use a specific method with your software, I would have an interest in what you did and are doing.
I am impressed with what you posted You might want to structure and present the steps you followed so that others, myself included, will know exactly how you did it. I for one would be very interested.

Yes, it's true, I've tried a lot of different software products but so have others on this board that post Kgen, Energy, Synergism and Thoromation.

Whatever I do post is definitely Sartin related or Sartin endorsed.

If I have slighted or offended anyone then let me apologize for it.
This is and was not my intent.
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As I projected the results of this race were 4-3
You also had the 4 on top.

Double Wow!!!!!!!

Great comment ,Bill....Lmao......

This is the kind of thread that I enjoy reading...

I will not get into which program does what or is most efficient, rather I will focus on the adjusted speed ratings of......of any numbers....those on Rdss, Thorograph,Beyers, or energy...

What am I referring to...any number rating system that rates the top finishers in numerical order are flawed....imho....

Example....one horse sets a blistering early pace fractions and hits the finish line at the same time as a deep closer who sits far off the fast early pace and arrives at the finish line together with the early pace setter are NOT EQUAL IN ABILITY.....any number ratings system which gives equal weight in numbers or speed ratings are flawed...Yes, these two hit the sure at the same moment for the final time of race....

One expended the most energy or has the most ability....in future rematches..95% of the time this horse has the most ability to dictate or control the early pace to his advantage...there are too many horses that can run 109 for six furlongs for a mile and eighth race and finish under 1:49.....a accurate speed rating system would rate each horse independently based on each horse energy expenditures...

So what the hell am I talking about...We can have the most accurate speed ratings available to us and still We will not solve the riddle...the answers are in the hidden fractions, late sustained energy and early pace expenditures, and not in the final time...


Just my humble opinions...

In other words, the Matchup ... :) Amen - all the difference!

Ted

No worries Bill. This would make a nice short video - I'm getting back into making videos again. It will have to wait until after Christmas, or Bill V could do it just as well.

cheers,

Ted

Ted Craven:

I wish you, Barb and your family a very happy, healthy and Merry Christmas.

I like lone speeds input. He seems to be a very well versed player.
I agree with him that one cannot survive this game playing a system that is based on speed ratings alone.
However, it is my thought and contention that integrating an accurate speed rating with the ability to be competitive at todays pace projection is paramount. I am also an advocate of pace shape and what type of horse the race sets up for.
It is my belief that when picking pace lines we should measure the leaders pace of the race and not the pace of the horse and use the pace line that falls within the Sartin parameters, usually within the top 3 lines.
I am fully aware that the above method is old school but I am hopeful that RDSS is or may be doing the same thing that I mentioned above but possibly in a different way. Possibly, I have not recognized this yet and hopefully, I will learn and be enlightened with Ted's future video series and his online tutorial sessions. One can always stand to learn something even at my age.:D

Partsnut,

That would be the key to the kingdom right there. Having your software change the adjusted SR for each horse according to the lead horse in todays race would show you how each horse might run against todays pacesetter instead of against the last pace it had to face.

How to write a program that can do that...?

chuckg.

Chuck, no need to write a program for that.
There are a couple of versions of the Taulbot Pace Calculator that will
do just that. The one that is manual input is AmerVar and is the one that I use which is an old DOS version. It will figure variants for any specific race and the user can manually adjust the speed rating to the variant. The speed ratings come directly from the Daily racing Form and can be manually adjusted with the SSR (Sartin Speed Rating) prescribed method.

The Mechanical version (Plastic Slide Rule) will also do this. The cost is about $45.00 and I believe it is still available. Then there is also a windows version that will work on operating systems that do not exceed Windows XP. I don't believe there's too much flexibility with the Windows version.

I just retired recently and had a lot of free time these last 6 weeks.I used the Taulbot's Pace Computer 3.0,MPH W/the Quirin Speed and Pace Figures and Kgen/Thoromation side-by-side.I handicapped 175 races,mostly sprints.Even though Kgen is manual input,it picked the winners better and with more clarity and i just have more confidence when it makes the final selections in the Thoromation screen.I guess when you really like the program,manual input is really no chore.I even enjoy putting the data in.
I'm not an expert handicapper and i'm sure better handicappers would make money on the MPH and Pace Computer programs.But to a player like me,i just followed the instructions/manuals written on Kgen and the past posts by Bill V.
Just my two cents worth...

Ray

thanks
 

Partsnut…

Thanks for the compliment… but I am just a student of the game and of the Methodology. I have been passionate about this game since I was a kid. I have always been a big fan of Bill Shoemaker since I shook his hand as a kid... The Shoe might have been a shade under 5 feet, but he was a giant to me…In April of 1986, I went to Santa Anita on Santa Anita Derby Day with one purpose. I wanted to see Ferdinand up close so I went into the saddling area behind the walking paddock and I squeezed myself up close to watch the Bald Eagle saddled Ferdinand. I was so sure that Ferdinand was going to win the Santa Anita Derby and the Kentucky Derby. My convictions were his dosage numbers and his numbers of chefs de race in his bloodlines according to Dr. Roman. I watched every movement and activity in the saddling area….I wanted to see a Kentucky Derby winning horse up close…..

Ferdinand ran third in the Santa Anita Derby but promptly won the Kentucky Derby at 17 to 1 but was 7 to one in the west coast as we did not have one huge mutuel pool at that time. I have been passionate about the Kentucky Derby ever since…

I lay no claim of expertise or specialty of many aspects of the Sartin Methodology nor do I use RDSS but I shall use Rdss soon…It is modern, it has download capabilities of data but most importantly, it has Ted Craven and a support system…

I have went to a couple of Sartin seminars and I got to meet Howard Sartin, Jim Bradshaw, Tom Brohamer, Dick Schmidt, Glen Connolly, Bruce Jorgensen, Sam Wada, Tom Hambleton, and Bob Purdy….great seminars but what was important was my own ability to “fish by myself” .

Once, I phoned Guy Wadsworth to inquire about the Speculator program after Sartin was no longer active. I asked about the program and asked Guy some questions…I asked him if he used his own program that he helped programmed. He told me that he did not play….I was dumbfounded…He was very ill at that time…I did not buy Speculator as I made a commitment to study the programs that I had already had in my possession. But soon family and other passions beckoned…

The Dominant Early Speed Horse
 

This kind of horse expends the most energy thus has the most ability...

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Awesome Gem finished only a half length behind Game on Dude in the Goodward Stakes but Awesome Gem lay way back off some blistering pace for the distance of a mile and a eigheth....These two finished a half length apart but there is a great difference in energy expenditure from each horse....

Game on Dude went on to finish second to Drosselmeyer in the 2011 BC Classic while Awesome Gem was toasted after this effort...

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