Race using Rmath's method
 

Decided to try a race using Rmath's method,not being a RDSS user I
tried it with Valm and Synergism 3

I had whittled out some of the non contenders first


Result 5-8-2

5 paid 6.80

5-8 ex 116.00


The 8 which Valm picked 1st on VDC went off 23-1


Just to let you know on the early-late sticks the 5 was lone early
ended up winning by 10

Nothing to prove here just had some free time

pace lines
 

Hi Jeff
Just to fill in some blanks

Here are the top 5 CSR and as is almost always the case they also
had plus recent races at a comparable distance and class level

The top 5 CSR
Attachment 33179
My lines
Attachment 33180
The 5 wins the first two segments but is 4th on blbl
Attachment 33181

Thanks for the workup of the race, Bill..

So let me understand this race.....

#5 pays $6 and but in the readout it is ranked no better than 4th B/L

Is something amiss....??????

Yes, Shoeless mentioned that he was the lone early and wins by 10 lengths..

My point here is that he should rank in the top two...but at least the #8 was ranked on top,,,,bigger odds...

Bill,

If you were using Rmath's method you would not have played the 8 as
he was 7th in CSR.

Also this is the danger of including all horses and not weeding some out
as there was no reason the 9 should be in your contenders

Have to say as you showed me once that Val4 is a very compact
program and easy to navigate through.

Here is the early\late screen

Jeff who used the 9 horse ?

Lone Speed I have the 5 ranked 4th on BLBL but the 8 is shaky
I used line 3. I do have the excuse in line 1 of its a poor effort
but it is its first try at the current TP meet, Line two is from CD
and a open 5000 claimer were the horse was outclassed
Line 3 is a Plus line but then again it is its best ever race and its
over 40 days ( best ever ) and 90 days - (form cycle) old
At 23/1 for me it is not a full win bet but a sure place or show or underneath
in exacta contender
As Jeff shows the Early late graph shows the 5 as a lone Early
RDSS shows it controls the first two fractions, Who is going to close on this horse ?

Thoromation shows all 5 contenders a Early energy
Thoromation also uses a more balanced third fraction in EXDC
It shows the 5 as the winner in F1, and competitive on the turn and winning the race

Attachment 33194



Attachment 33196

Bill,

Thanks for the workup of the race

There you go Thoromation had exacta in order

Not that it makes much difference but you used all the horses in the
beginning and the CSR on the 8 was 7,if you had left out the 9 it would
have been 6th.

So
 

Okay so now I understand that you mean If "a person" does not
use horse 9 than the 8 is CSR 6 not 7 If that is the case since I did not use
the 2 is the 8 now 5th on CSR ?

So does a top 5 CSR win or a Top 5 useable plus recent pace line win ?
Attachment 33199

Actually we have gone off track of the original premise of the thread
of using Rmath's method (which I find interesting) of corrolating CSR
with VDC.


Also I had to use TPR rating instead of CSR as I dont have RDSS

Wow…I wake up and check in…..I find out that Bill V. has been very busy and threw in some of my mojo that I was going to post….Great analysis...Bill!!!

The point is not about getting the winner #5 on top on the RDSS readout….if one person is content to use the early/late graph only and conclude that the #5 was the lone early speed of the race and the most logical potential winner and move on…then so be it…

By the way, the race came up EXDC on thoromation, and the first two horses on the EXDC preplay screen at the first call were the final first two finishers….FTL…you mentioned the importance of early speed at the early calls in many postings..

Personally, I do not have to see the winner on top in the final readouts of Rdss….I can make those evaluations from looking at the Match up screen of any Sartin program and make any necessary “adjustments.” This is only a 5K claiming race and is only one race………It is about concepts……is it enough to say that a horse is the lone early speed of a matchup and move onward towards the next race…maybe and that is quite alright.

I am more interested in the “potential ability matchup” in a given race that I want to evaluate. Jim Bradshaw had said many times that “one horse goes to the front, and either they catch him or they don’t.” The matchup of any given race always revolves around the pacesetters and those with the abilities to overcome the pace. I would like to evaluate the lone early speed against his matchup contenders and to verify, if indeed, the lone early speed can overcome the matchup and to prevail in the readouts.

I do not believe that I am asking too much as I am well aware that these concepts are all already in the Sartin Methodology in Sartin programs and Bradshaw’s Matchup manual.


Good skills

The Winner
 

I thought I would put up the winner's PP's.
I have lined out the non-applicable distances and surfaces (turf).
Looks like a pretty good miler on dirt or poly when the track is not "off".

What is rmaths method?

If you look in the RDSS section it is explained there,I dont want to give
out the wrong info.

I was just putting up one race to see if I narrowed down the contenders
beforehand would it do any good.Unfortunately though the thread got
turned in a different direction.

FTL,

Why the switch to RDSS? I thought you had your own
handicapping program.

You'll find the answer here.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8895

if one person is content to use the early/late graph only and conclude that the #5 was the lone early speed of the race and the most logical potential winner and move on…then so be it…


Turfway Race 5 12-30

Contra does it again

Thanks Richie P from your advice a looooong time ago

Looking at Bills read outs the top two win contenders for me would have been
#1 with a 2-1 rating and the #5 with a 3-3 rating.
the #8 is a contender with a 1 vdc but with a 7 csr I would only consider it as a place or show horse.
When I started comparing the WINNERS rankings on these two ratings I wanted to see if it was possible to narrow most races down to as few horses as possible.
What I found was that the Winner in over 90% of my playable races had a rating of 4 or lower on one of the two sets of numbers.
From these contenders I then looked to see how many were actually rated in the top 4 on both and then broke it down even farther.
As in the example race above the # 8 with a 1 vdc ang a 7 csr would not be a Primary win contender, BUT if you are playing the exotics you should not leave any horse out that has a rating of 4 or lower on either VDC or CSR.

rmath

Rmath,

Thanks for you explanation and again I commend you on your work
and more importantly sharing it with others.

Jeff

FTL,


I understand now.

Jeff
 

Thanks for the compliments.
I like to share and if any of the info can be of use to anyone or if anyone can improve on it please pass it on to the rest of us.
Helping others to become better handicappers is what DOC & Jimmy were all about.
rmath

Nice
 

Happy New Year Richard

Thanks for the reseach work
CSR is an interesting tool

GS
Bill

PS
Glad to see your a Thoromation Alumni

Bill
 

Happy New Year to you and all at Pace and Cap.

Yes Bill I think CSR is a great tool when used with RDSS.

rmath