Do You Believe
 

Do you believe that the outcome of races can be predicted with certainty? If so I would like to hear some answers of how and what tools enable you to have this belief.

Good luck on that one.

Jeff,
If most handicappers would put in as much time handicapping as following these posts we might be getting somewhere. Artificial intellegence and sometimes multiple regression does not cut it for me and I will come front and center and say this type of add on to Sartin's Methodology is BS. I have a B&W way of looking at things and where I handicap others want to live in a James Bond world where this Artificial Intellegenge will massage the data anywhere you would like and would lead them to the promised land. I ask all of you, how much have you spent on this crap. Increasing complexity is not the answer. These self proclaimed wizards on their sites have more items than Sears, they feed off of you and you are only too happy to oblige.

Trotman,


GREAT POST and really gives you something to think about.

I love your honesty


Jeff

Jeff.

The Sartin Methodology/RDSS which I commend Ted for is real, where I think things go crazy is that we have a need to search for what is true, "The Answer". I just gave you the answer and that is you will never handicap a race with complete certainty and that is in stone, But what you can do is handicap smart, like Ray Taulbot said make sure you have everything going for you including price. These so called experts only have sites to sell you dreams because they failed, they suck the last blood out of all who are fools to buy into their BS. All handicappers have a chance to break free provided they lose the thought that you can predict what will be the outcome of said race.

"Do you believe that the outcome of races can be predicted with certainty? If so I would like to hear some answers of how and what tools enable you to have this belief"

Why I do believe the outcome can be predicted with all certainly!!!!

All you have to do is watch the rerun! :D

nodub62 drop that crap on the other site, this is all valid.

Trotman,

I didn't mean to offend you or anyone else here. Guess I didn't understand the question. Please accept my apologies.

Bud

Bud,
All is good no problem, that's my B&W coming out again. I am serious about this and I see so many and hear from many how really screwed up all of this internet BS has not only cost them but took away their love for the game. I won't spell it out but the claims of certain people and what they have done I have a hard time believing it. Sartin programs, RDSS whatever, you have all you need adding certain things ?????? just will F..... you up. This massaged misguided data means absolutly nothing in the big picture.

Why don't you spell it out. I really have no idea who you are talking about but would like to know. Talking in code does not help a newbie allegedly avoid these pitfalls. I would also like to know. Of course, knowing me, I have probably already been "sucked in"

Jim

JimG for the love of whatever. RDSS or the older Sartin programs do you really need New Pace or whatever BS they have to sell, forget it. This is the very massaging and manipulation of data that makes it enticing to those still seaching for winners, when no one came forward and offered an opinion to what I posted. I am sick and tired of listening and watching these self proclaimed handicapping guru's take you down the river. Bottom line is that people look up to Sartin, RDSS for what it is which is the purest of tools you will ever work with. It is not complex, it is not artificial, it is what it is a very good tool. As with anything else, rid yourself of greed and then see how good it really is, without the added extra's.

So your upset that Ted included NewPace in RDSS. It certainly is not mandatory to use it and I suspect most classical Sartinites do not. However, Ted evidently decided that NP had enough value to at least warrant inclusion in RDSS, if the subscriber purchased the product. I trust Ted. In fact, we should. The more he includes in RDSS, the likelihood that he will gain subscribers. That is important for the future of support of the product.

We are all adults here. If someone insists on looking for shortcuts, that will happen regardless of New Pace or not. No need to get so upset. Racing is a complex game. There are no easy answers. Handicapping is just a part of the equation and software is an even smaller part. I can win or lose with about a dozen different programs.

Personally, I like to see new developments because the game has changed dramatically in the last 15 years. I am man enough to decide if something new fits my style and I am sure many other members here are as well. Sounds like you have a beef with Schwartz. I doubt you are the first or will be the last in that area. However anyone blaming Schwartz (New Pace) or anyone else for their own losing at the races is terribly misguided.

Jim

Jim no one said anyone lost through New Pace or Dave Schwartz and I certainly didn't but lets call a spade a spade you who have voiced opinions on how good certain tools were and then abandon them, huh, why. This is not a pick on anyone thread it's about what the thread started out about. And all the add on's and what have you mean nothing, should you want to place your hard earned cash with these person's, it's your money.

You implied that some people were losing their zeal for the game because of items like New Pace and I was addressing that.

There are many good handicapping tools on the market. And the fact of the matter is you have no idea what I may or may not use to handicap the races. Any positive remarks I have made about any software I have tried, I stand by. Most of the ideas that I use in my horse playing are derived from trying out various ideas over the years. I use what I think is good from one area and add to that. I have learned much from various people here and other places. Granted much of what I read is bs, but I will wade through that to find something I can add to my toolbox.

When I bet a horse race, there is nobody to blame or congratulate except myself. I like it that way.

With respect to your original question, there is not certainty to race outcomes. If there was, the math types would rule the betting industry.

Jim

Jim I do know what you use and I do know what you have voiced opinions on, you go with whatever is the flavour of the month because you have voiced your opinions elsewhere. So with that what could have been a very good thread has come to an end. Ted were done here.

For whatever reason you have chosen to try to make this personal. I'm not sure why. Perhaps you just want to bully people? (Your initial reply to Budman is an example of that) I have no idea and this conversation has become counterproductive. I am done as well.

Jim

Jim I just am straight forward, I never was the bully with nodub62 and I think he will back that up with my reply to him. And you made this personal which is why I said Ted I'm done. The whole thread could have been very good but we will never know, thanks RPM might have something for you that's real special, like all of the rest of the junk you probably have bought through the years.

No, your just rude and have no idea what you are talking about.

Jim

Trotman:
I believe that the original question was serious in nature and had lot's of merit. I think the purpose of the question was to learn from others what they use to achieve a degree of predictability in a majority (not all ) races. I also believe that this subject broaches a degree of individual frustration, futility and sensitivity in many of us.
I believe that most of us take this game very seriously and there are some
that make light of it. To each his own.
It's hard to please everyone and we have to be careful in what we are posting or responding to so that nobody will be offended.

Let's face it, we've all bought things that ended up as worthless.
Some hate to admit this. Hey, I wasted $1600 bucks on RaceCom.
For me, that was a lesson well learned.

I believe we should be tolerant of each other and if we do not understand something we should address it in a civil manner.

The new year is upon us. Let's be kind to one another.

When you compare the Sartin Methodology of say, 1988 to today, there is quite a difference. Doc never rested on his laurels - he was always moving forward. Remember, the "evolution of the revolution?"

Today, Ted carries that torch forward.

I remember some of those danged new-fangled ideas Doc came up with - Percent median, Doctor, TPR, DC Pars........far cry from phase III.

Honest but be friendly
 

happy new year Bill
Thanks for your reply and your honesty about going down a bad road
I too once wasted a good amount on Always software and data files
I wonder why Ted has stayed away from this
There is no place on Pace and Cap for rudeness

People, people ...

On the east coast (and the forests of Muskoka, Central Ontario), the New Years eve party has already started. In DaveEdwards England it's already New Years, in our Aussie friends' world - it's tomorrow and already a brand new, brave New Year.

I am certain that horse racing is predictable, but my certainly ranges from 0% to about 80% or so in any given race. When I am less than 80% certain, I ask for a good price, and when about 50% certain (just estimating 'certainty' here - I presume everyone accepts that) I ask for a very good price, in either the Win/Place pools or in the Exacta pools (personally, and currently).

I think human beings crave certainty, like they crave security: we don't want to be cold, or hungry or imperiled, and we prefer to know for sure if our job is safe, our children safe, our spouses loving, our political leaders sane. But no one can grant us these certainties, or the absolute security we likely felt as newborns. So horse race betting then becomes a contest between deeply felt (and often poorly understood) emotions of greed for the 'prize', fear of loss (or appearing foolish), mixed with degrees of aversion to uncertainty and risk, spiced with desire to feel 'vital', brave, fearless. We want to feel certain in our analysis and bets, and in our life decisions, but no horse race or life situation can offer us this certainty. So we make the trade-offs of accepting relative uncertainty for relative financial compensation (or insurance) for being right or wrong.

Horse race betting is none other than a reflection of human society, human nature - like all other financial markets wherein people vie for advantage, for power, for success.

Trotman - you must feel VERY confident in the tools you have grasped: in Ray Taulbot's methods, in BLAM, in Doc Sartin's and Jim 'The Hat's' teachings - and perhaps (blush) the power of RDSS to get the job done. If everyone felt like you feel, analysed and bet a horse race exactly the same way as you, KNEW in their soul there was no other worthy way to play in horse racing - then there would be no horse racing. There would be no difference of opinion to capitalize on, no one else's money to win in any race.

And I'm not just talking about careless, mindless weekend punters or unilateral adherents of Beyer figures or other public and widely disseminated information - I'm also talking about another strata of intelligent, some very hard-working individuals who either use the very same tools and methods you do but interpret the conclusions differently, or use other serious tools which they are in the process of (hopefully) mastering, or perhaps they witness others having presumably mastered (i.e. to the point of demonstrable, consistent profit).

Decisions like: is that horse returning from a layoff really in form today: is the money bet on it 'smart' or merely 'hopeful' money (some things we cannot know - so we guesstimate: you one way, your friend using the same tools another way). Do you criticize your friend for having a different opinion than you? Do you criticize him for using a different tool than you if you have seen him with your own eyes pull amazing selections out of his bag of tricks, where perhaps you yourself lost the same race? If not, it is because you know and respect the effort your friend makes daily in his passion for racing - a similar passion that you feel?

My point - you tend to not criticize someone you know and whose effort you respect, even if their approach differs from you own. It is also (sadly) natural to criticize (dare I say fear?) what you don't know, someone whose approach is strange to you if you have not closely counted the hours they spend on their craft, or seen the gleam in their eye when they succeed, shared their joy at unraveling the mystery, even if each in your own ways.

OK, I got to go soon, it is New Years eve and I shouldn't be waxing eloquent on a horse racing site. But you cannot say you know the desire, and the sincerity in the hearts and minds of the people you criticize here for trying different tools (perhaps several of them). Your zeal is enviable - BUT, this is not a neighbourhood where we convince our neighbours of their errors by blunt language. We each are not responsible for convincing any other human being of ANYTHING - only for pronouncing our own truth (as I think you said). What we want to do at Pace and Cap, remembering the example set by Howard, and Jimmy and others - is to demonstrate what we know, repeatedly, answer questions, be helpful. To each online community their own, but at this one the tone will be helpful, respectful - or else it will not persist.

You are a blunt, honest (you believe) person, and in person I also know you to be a sincere and capable teacher. But please cut it out with the direct confrontation, or else take it private. Help me make RDSS and the modern state of the Sartin Methodology a driving force in educating new comers, in cutting through the clutter of myriad confusing data. Help me with a Spring 2013 Woodbine seminar. Let's start some planning, how about January, how about at Whitlocks in The Beach, in Toronto. Call me, or write - let's set it up.

I also ask you to respect every member here, if you respect me. I respect JimG, I respect Budman - they are my friends, not because I have met them or toasted with them, but because they have shared their passion with me and left me a little more eager as a result. As have you, my friend. Don't leave Pace and Cap (and don't let yourself get kicked off). You have too much to offer.

Of that I am 100% certain.

Wishing everyone at Pace and Cap a joyful New Year. Teach the newcomers something about why you love horse racing. Grow your own love.

All good things,

Ted

Trotman,

To me this was the best thing that came from your post


If most handicappers would put in as much time handicapping as following these posts we might be getting somewhere.


Jeff

Happy New Year to everyone.
I am not a senior at Pace and Cap, or what you would consider a very experienced handicapper. As a matter of fact, I only started playing horses just a couple of years ago. I had the good fortune to join Pace and Cap about a year ago, and I remember the initial introduction of NewPace, made by Ted, just like it was yesterday. He made it very clear that Newpace was not not a mandatory update, and that it was up to each individual member to decide whether they wanted to get Newpace or not. There was no convincing pitch coming from him, other than stating that he did see somthing in Newpace, and that he was open to new ideas. I believe this initial post about newpace is still available on Pace and Cap.
I am happy to report that I am a Newpace user, and I love it. I think Newpace is actually worth much more than what I paid to get it, based entirely on its performance, since I never met or even spoke to Dave. I am glad Ted made the decision to give Pace and Cap members the opportunity to get Newpace.
Now, does Newpace win me every race I play? The answer is no. And it is no surprise to me, because no computer program can do that. Why? Just to name a few reasons: the trackmaster data provided to the program is not always accurate, trainers try to hide their horses' true abilities, horses go through form cycles, jockeys make mistakes, and the best representative pace lines are not always available or chosen by the program's users.
My conclusion is that no matter what our skills levels, or the years or experience handicapping horse races, we simply cannot win every single race that we play. We have to accept this as a fact and deal with it accordingly.
The alternative is to carefully select a few races where we think a couple of horses truly have an edge over the remaining horses. I said "a couple of horses", because I learned from Pace and Cap that it is always better to find two horses you can bet to win, as opposed to just one. This has served me well.
I want to take this opportunity to thank Ted for the good work he's doing with RDSS and Pace and Cap. The level of customer service and leadership he has been providing is beyond my expectations. His commitment to the sharing of knowledge transpires through his posts that I always enjoy reading. I hope he does not change, regardless of the negativity of some posters on Pace and Cap who will never be happy, no matter what.
I also want to thank Dave Schwartz, the creator of Newpace. I want to wish him a happy New year, and thank him for coming up with a great product, and sharing it with us at Pace and Cap for just a few bucks. Newpace never ceased to maze me. Sometimes, it would pick 4 horses in a race, that turned out to be the top 4 finishers. Does it get any better?
Happy New year to everyone. Let's be pickier about which races to play, and which ones to pass in 2013.
Paul.

Well said Trotman...the only thing that we really have going for us is our recordkeeping and certain corrolaries and or circumstances leading us to the winner...that's why Doc always had us betting 2 horses to win. Every race is different and even keeping records is sometimes confusing..sometime the records help us and sometimes they don't. Of all the races I handicap I only wager on a small percentage of them due to low odds or other reasons....but in answer to your question I only find a very few races a year where I am certain of a winner..and they are usually a low price...Had a certain winner at SA sunday in R8...#7 Jeranamo..with RDSS he was a complete standout and I made a single win bet on him(very rarely do I only bet one horse)but the pace match up pointed to him...only paid $6.00 in a 7 horse field...but still you are right CERTAINY ??? HE COULD HAVE STUMBLED AT THE GATE OR THROWN HIS RIDER....all we can do is just keep working harder as Doc taught us how to:meditate, visualize, and focus...good luck in 2013 to all !!!!!!!!!!!!!!