selecting pace lines
 

I have been usind RDSS with moderate success well sometimes. I have been spending alot of time in the library lately just trying to educate myself and better understand the software and what its telling me. I just finished reading "The Pace Manual" and I figured out that I cannot pick or have trouble selecting pace lines in past performances I mean if you can't pick the same, consistent pace line how will you ever get to the next level. So I found a race that had me scratching my head whether to use this line or that one. Here are my rules that I use when selecting a pace line.

1. try to select same distance and surface
2. last line is my first choice unless a bad trip or wrong conditions (rule 1)
3. don't select last race if its the highest adj. SR and TE
4. don't select maiden wins unless only + race
5. only select races were horse was not beat more then 7.5 lengths
6. try not to go past 100 days

These are my guidelines that I have written down when doing a race but there always seems to be an expection to the rule.

Any who this is getting a bit long winded but I really could use some guidance here.

I chose this race because it only had 6 horse and a couple were good scenarios that seem to fall in the exception rules.



Horse 1 I chose the 2nd line since the first line is a route and today is a sprint and it was sloppy conditions. The horse has been off for 150 days so going to the 2nd line seems fair but its a maiden win race and boasts the highest adj SR and TE.

Should I use the first line or go back to the 5th line where its a sprint and finished 3rd?

Horse 2
 

I chose the last line here because its the same distance and surface, finished within 7.5 lengths and seemed like the horses better than avg adj SR and TE.

I believe this line is a true representation of this horse.

Horse 3
 

I chose the last line here because the only other line is the maiden win and the SR and TE seem to be a little on the generous side.

Does it seem like some of the adj SR and TE are a bit inflated at times?

I try not to use the horses best line meaning the dream trip scenario that only comes out every now and then.

Horse 4
 

I chose the 2nd line here because the first line was the best the horse ever ran even though it has only ran twice. It just seemed a bit inflated in SR and TE and felt like the 2nd line even though its a maiden win was a better choice for this horse.

Does that make sense?

Horse 5
 

Used last line here..seemed the logical choice.

Horse 6
 

used 2nd line here because first line seemed inflated and did not want to go back over 100 days to select the same distance. the last 4 races have all been routes so was handcuffed to select a route for a sprint

Should I of went with the first line even though it was the best line for this horse?

race ?
 

Hi
I have a few Issues, First of which is the race itself.

Second are your rules. I don't agree with them.
But lets look at the race
Attachment 34250


Right away I see a $100.000 stakes race for young horses.
This looks like the makings of a longshot winner, That winner probably does not fit the guidelines laid out by FTL in this teaching area,
When I see these type races I select my lines, then root for the horses that fit FTL's guidelines. But since nobody has run at this level and some horses only have 2 lines ( 3 is my minimum ) This is a watch and root but not bet race.
When one of the horses wins with a line I smile, When a horse wins and I don't have a line again
I smile because I was smart enough to have passed the race.

As for your rules .. After reading the Pace line manual and the teaching examples here you should rethink your rules
In the pace line manual it says. Look for a line that represents what you expect the horse to do today
Also.... Has done well under the same conditions in its past

Here is how I would have picked lines for this race.
I don't know much about Belmont. I guess it was a fast track and all 6 ran
Who is the winner based on these lines.. ? but lets see,

Horse 1 NL off 147 days only has a mc win and this is not a NW2L race.


Horse 2 This horse shows a move in the last line but its not enough for me to
earn a (+) let alone a + No line

Horse 3. Line 1 its a + line and a recent. The horse has won both its races

Horse 4 Line 1. Just like horse 3, Its a + line .

Horse 5 Line 1 All its races are + lines no reason not to use line 1

Horse 6 No line. I am not going to use a two turn AQU inner mile race
in a Belmont sprint. This horse has no + sprints showing

So I have lines for three horse
The ML for my three horses are
#3 = 1/1
#4 = 1.8/1
#5 = 5/1
So here I only have a bet on #5
As I said I would root for the 3, 4, or 5
but I would pass

First, let me go over your list.

1 - replace "try to" with "ALWAYS"
2 - Replace with "the last line IS THE LINE, unless there is a "valid reason" to go back one line". The Paceline Manual gives many "valid" reasons. DO NOT invent reasons.
3 - Scrap this line.
4 - OK to use maiden line if today's race is for non winners of two lifetime
5 - Scrap this line. Many times a horse has the lead at the first two calls (a very positive sign) and finishes the race out of the money and beaten more than 7.5 lengths.
6 - replace with DO NOT GO PAST 90 DAYS, for either days since last race or days since the paceline used.

In looking at the horses you posted, here are the horses and lines I would use.

#1 - NO LINE. Hasn't run in 147 days.
#2 - NO LINE. Horse only has 2 races in the last 90 days. Neither is a "good" race. "GOOD" means either a "+" race or a "(+)" race.
#3 - LAST LINE. There is nothing wrong with the line. Use it.
#4 - LAST LINE. There is nothing wrong with the line. Use it. DO NOT go back to a maiden line. This race IS NOT for non winners of 2 races lifetime.
#5 - LAST LINE. There is nothing wrong with the line. Use it.
#6 - NO LINE. Last 4 lines are all routes. Today is a sprint. Horse does not show a "good" sprint race in the entirety of its' PP's.
Contenders are 3,4,5.


Picking contenders and pacelines is not easy, but it certainly isn't as difficult as some may make it.
You posted this in the "teaching" area.
HAVE YOU READ THE OTHER THREADS HERE?
Here is a thread on "picking contenders and pacelines". http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8784
There are many, many examples that will help you.
In fact, you should read all the treads in the "teaching" area. I think you will find all of them helpful.

I think mentions the Silva course in some followup. Bradshaw mixing pacelines and Pizzola's "soft focus", versus Ainslie, Quinn, Beyer and Brohammer stopping betting at some point tells at least me something.

Thanks for the feedback FTL and Bill V. I have a lot to learn which is evident by my post and pace line criteria. I am starting to use a notebook to organize my Sartin education and seem to pull a lot of good information from both your posts. I can't believe I never visited the link from FTL's post in reguard to picking pace lines. I am currently going through it.

I did not want this post turned into a depot for negative comments. I just wanted some feedback and that's all.

I have a question about pl selection. I see where FTL refers to the PL manual which does state use last line except for valid reason to go back. When I joined the Methodolgy in 1990 we were told by the Doc to use the best of the last 3 at a comparable dist and surface [within 1 furlong] and not to use a line where horse was beaten by more than 7.5 lenghts. I've been doing this with good success for 23 yrs. I will agree that most times the line I use is in the top 3 last lines. So my question is when did it revert back to the last line?. Thank you.

Tim G

Lt1...nothing has changed that I know of...but sometimes I have an exception to the guideline within (1 furlong) and usually this exception involves horses going 10 furlongs today and u r trying to use a 9.0 furlong line and end up with an 8.5 furlong line which is out of the 1 furlong perimeter....that's what keep records is all about..going back and finding 10 furlong winners that you could only get with a 8.5 furlong pace line...if memory serves me correctly it happened in the derby a few times in the past with Sea Hero, Charismatic, and now Orb..and maybe a few others that I don't recall...since "Doc" gave us all these guidelines, racing has made dramatic changes...Doc said about every 5 yrs this happens and what worked some yrs ago may not work now...I would suggest to you keep doing what Doc prescribed but keep records on everything...and I know that's a pain sometimes when you would rather be doing other things on saturday night with family and friends...but setting time aside for notes, record keeping, and modeling is CRITICAL to success in this business...and me being a former business owner, I understand what I need to do to be successful, and if it wasn't for Doc's leadership and Bradshaws ass chewing over the phone...I wouldn't be thinking as I do today...hope this help.....good skills to all

Thanks for the reply Atkinsrr. I do keep records and know both my weak and strong points. As a result I play mostly races for 3 &ups on the dirt where I get the winner in the top 2 68% of the time. As for the Derby I didn't play butwould have used line 1 for all the contenders since it was at 9f. If you decide to use an 8.5 line for 1 contender than in my opioion you must rate the rest in the same way. The 1 furlong guide works well. Remember the TC races are for 3yr olds who are like teenagers. You can't be too surprised when unusal results happen, not that ORB winning was a surprise. I also follow Docs missive about not using the Derby pace line for any other races.

You are correct..can't use the derby line for the Preakness ..actually there are no pace lines to use when handicapping the Belmont unless you want to get brave and use the Derby line which is the closest distance to the Belmont...sometimes I do..sometimes I don't...but I disagree with one thing that you said "if you use a 8.5 f line for 1 contender than in my opinion you must rate the rest in the same way"...Every race is different and presents a different puzzle for us to solve...I will use 8.5 for one and 9 for another ..they are both 2 turn races going into a 2 turn race..so I don't have a problem with that personally.......one thing that I never do is use 2 turn pace lines when I'm handicapping for a 1 turn mile on the dirt...hey we are all different...and it's the bottom line $$$$$$$ that counts..catch you later

The reason I feel this way is if you don't use the 1 furlong guideline for all the horses than you maybe giving an advantage to 1 while hurting the others. Unless of course the other contenders best lines were the last. I believe you must be consistent with your handicapping procedures. But your right the bottom line is all that counts. Enjoy ypur day.

Agree with
 

Hey guys and gals
It would help if the teaching area was limited to instructions and or direct answerable questions and commentary on races presented here

There are other forums on pace and cap for opinions on what each person chooses to do to get to the goal of being a consistent winners

Thanks
Bill

I will take responsibility for the recent talk about using the last paceline unless there is a “valid” reason to go back one line, among other things.

Since there is already a thread in the teaching area that disusses picking contenders and pacelines and using RDSS software, my suggestion to is read through that thread from start to finish. There are many, many examples of races. You can find the thread here. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8784

In fact, all the threads in the teaching area use original methodology concepts and RDSS. I think all of them would be a good read for everyone. There is a lot in there, but it is all good information.

Hey, my first post!!! Hopefully it is useful. :)

Don't forget that there is a database for all of the races for this 'Learn to Win' *TEACHING & Examples thread.

Here is the link:

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9127

Ted had me go thru the entire section and compile a list of the tracks, dates and races all of the posts were referring to. I identified about 65 races in all. Ted then created a database of the cards that corresponded to the track and date so the example races would be included in the database.

While I am able to read the posts, it is a much more different feel to load up the race, work it and then see what FTL, Bill and everyone else is referring to. Doing it this way helps me to develop my own opinion ifrst, then to get into the mind of "teachers" to see what their thought process is.

Until my second post..:)

Jim

Welcome aboard
 

Jim...

Welcome and congrats on your first post on this board!!

I like your initial approach to immerse yourself with the methodology.

I would like to point out that some of the best posters ( Tipton Gilbert is one such poster)with great insights and commentaries were posters who posted fewer than 5 message posts on this board.

I wish you a successful journey to achieve your objectives with the RDSS and teachings of the Sartin Methodology.

Good skills