Contenders
 

Can you give me some insight on exactly how you choose your top 5 or so contenders.
I am currently using the top5 Brisn Prime
power along with the top 5 Twinspires Profit line.

I have a few horses a day that come in at nice prices that are not tp 5 ineither of the two.
How do YOU select the contenders you will handicapp

Here is a link to the Teaching area that deals with picking contenders and pacelines. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8784

It starts off with information on the subject taken from either the Follow Ups or the Paceline Manual. Once you read through those their are many example races using RDSS that you can read. Each race will provide a run down of each horse in the race and the reason for consideration or elimination. It will also explain which line is being used for those horses that are determined to be a contender.

Hey Latekick,

For the Lead did an excellent job in the teaching area that he refers to. A definite must read and assimilate. Why?

IN the early days of the methodology, whenever there was a workshop or seminar, an enormous amount of time would be spent on paceline selection. Then contender selection would be gone over almost as an afterthought. This is because to some extent you pick pacelines in order to be able to evaluate horses for contention. (An argument and method can be shown for picking contenders first almost to the exclusion of picking pacelines, but, that is for another thread and one that is difficult for beginners to grasp As a hint: it has to do with running styles.)

So, I believe most people will pick a paceline first from which to use for deciding if the horse is a contender or not. That is what they are most comfortable with or they gravitate to and that is absolutely fine. It works for me and many, many others.

But.... (for additional consideration)....

As time passed, the methodolgy became more advanced. Computer programs changed. Today, we are using RDSS2 and in it is something called Paceline Selection Strategy. (PSS)

In PSS, you can choose between different strategies. First there is manual (which is what I learned decades ago and is what is presented in FTL's teaching thread.

Then there is Last Line which is akin to manual. It is just a shortcut and would be changed based upon using a line other than the last line.

But, then there is all of these others - Best Perceptor, Last 3 Comparable and all the way down to Best VDC, Last 3 (which is the one I focus on).

No strategy is perfect. But, they are helpful and let me explain.

My mentor uses Best VDC. He opens up the race and runs Best VDC and from that he chooses his contenders. Here is why:

rmath made a post (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9188) from his findings over 650 races using the top VDC and CSR. The winner came out of the top 5 DVC and CSR 81.4% of the time. In reading the manuals, if you pick the pacelines manually, you will pick the correct paceline about 85% of the time.

My mentor saves a lot of analysis time in doing it this way and he is comfortable in his analysis of the pacelines selected for him. He has been handicapping for many, many years and that is what he has evolved to, but, he does not use it blindly like a black box. He does change pacelines selected when necessary and also runs the Last Line PSS to get a different perspective on the a horse. (Most often, his conclusions about a horse will be the same using both Best VDC and Last Line. Ocassionally, they will be different. At these times, he will then look more closely at the horse and other factors in a race to see which paceline he should use or whether or not the horse should be a contender.)

Be forewarned: USE THE PSS LIKE A BLACK BOX AT YOUR OWN RISK!!!

So were does this leave my giving advice....

Study the FTL teaching thread. Internalize it. Use it as a foundation of knowledge from which to make judgements from.

Realize that there are things that are contradictory to using the PSS. For example, FTL has his opinion about layoffs based upon his analysis/statistics which I can respect. He will just not use a horse if a horse hase been layed off after I believe it is 90 days. Using a PSS, it will pick a line regardless of how may days, months or years a horse has been layed off.

On the other hand, while rmath did not supply us with how he decided upon the paceline selection/strategy he used, his stats also point to another direction for contender selection.

I usually end with something like "Hope this helps" but in this case I know that what I wrote may not be that helpful. I wrote it because when I first opened up RDSS2, there was this thing called PSS. Immediatley, I fell into a "black box" mode. My mentor corrected that. Using the PSS (especially Best VDC) is a decent starting point. But, It needs to be tempered with the knowledge from For The Leads post.

Best of luck.

Jim
Any Questions, Any Time :)

Good post Jim.

Pace Makes The Race
 

Great post and helpful replies to all


My contenders are the horses I think can win the race.
Before I select pace lines, I eliminate some horses.
based on form, poor TPR numbers, poor adjusted speed ratings, poor APV
and too early or too late on the early late graph.
I only bet for win so I throw out many horses who can come in second !!
That is why I don't play exactas.
This is the contender selection method I use

I then get my top contenders during the pace line selection step
I use a combination of what I have learned from FTL's lessons,
Doc's "best of last 3" at a comparable distance, surface and competition level
and the pace line chapter in the book Pace Makes The Race ( original version ).

I always start with the last ( most recent ) pace line If it fits what I am looking for I use it,
If not I asked myself why can I excuse it. If I can I look at the next line I very rarely go past the 3rd pace line .

Bill

I appreciate all the replys.
Because I Can Jim, thank you for your insight and I would like to go read up on that thread you mentioned but im not sure where to find it at on here.

Bill V. I understand what you are saying, though I am quite new to this sight I have been reading and learning the method for about a year now. Ive read mostly all of the pace line manual and read up on some of the other manuals.
I use the best of the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface, and if the last 3 is at a different surface I go back as far as I need to get a line for this surface. The problem I most often run into is when I choose the last line because its a comparable distance and surface, and the line ranks low, so I dismiss the horse. Well it seems that often times, the horse wins and I am sitting there scrachting my head, and when I go back to look at the horses pps, it shows a line 2 or 3 back that would have made this horse very competitive. To rid of this problem I thought of maybe instead of using running lines to choose best of last 3, to use Speed ratings to choose my best line of the last 3. Say its a 6f dirt sprint. The horse in question ran a 78 going 7f last race and 3 back ran an 85 going 6f. Should I go back to the line 3 back or stay with the 78 being that its the horses last race?



All of this is very important to me and being that I don't quite have a very high bankroll to play on, every wager is critical. I have been stryggling lately with horses that just don't rank very well beating me, and I need to stop this problem before it runs me broke. Getting advice from people who are ACTUALLY showing a profit, will help me tremendously

Here is a link to the thread you are looking for.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8784

There are many more threads in the teaching area that will be of help to you.

The races shown in the teaching area show the complete PP's for each horse in the race, along with comments on each horse in the race, explaining the reason the horse is or is not a contender as well as which line is being used.

At the end of the PP's you will find 4 screen shots from RDSS, the "original" screen, which shows the horses used as contenders and the line used for each horse. Please take note that a "bad" line is never used. All the lines will be either a "+" line of a "(+)" line. In addition, you will find the "TPR" screen shot, the "SEGMENTS" screen shot and finally the "BLBL" screen shot.

Hope you find this material to be informative.

look at so other readouts
 

Hi late kick

This is a good question...

I look at Parx every racing day, I am often face with a similar problem
as Parx 7 furlong races tend to be adjusted too fast.
Some things you would want to consider. What speed ratings has the horse earned at 6 furlongs in its plus races? and is the 7 furlong race comperable
What about the early late and total energy? 7 furlong races tend to have faster epr ratings because so much of the race is run before they hit the turn.
If I can I always try to use a similar distance for a paceline

Bill, this is a real horse running today and i want to see what you have to say about this paceline selection.
Okay this is a 6f race on a POLY track. His last race he earned an 83 SR while going 6f over a poly track. 2 back he earned an 84 while going 6f on turf, and 3 back was his best of the last 3 with a 92 bt it was 6f on a DIRT surface. I chose the last line even though its not the best SR ( by the way they re all plus races)
This is the problem im running into a bit. I chose the last line even though its not his best, and this may rank the horse lower than his 3 line would, so this horse may be a winner off of his 3 line which is the best of the last 3, but since i chose his last race on Poly, the SR is lower thus it may be lower ranked in my rankings. Thats what my problem has started to become. Horses that WOULD be ranaked highly if i use the best of last 3, but decide not too because of a reason as i just stated. His 92 going 6f on a DIRT surface is 9 points higher than the line i chose last race on a POLY. Whats your thoughts

Hi
 

Hi Latekick
Can you tell me what track and race this example is from?
I would love to see the race and the PP's for the horse

In the mean time, horses run against each other not against the surface
If all the other contender all only have Poly lines and your example horse has good lines but from different surfaces its a tough call.
Anyway I would like to see what horse/race your asking about
Just the name and track and race and horse # I can DL the track
Bill

Bill its Del Mar Race 2 #8

Wow you picked a good race/horse question
 

This is a tough call And I hope I get some help because my opinion might not be the best

Here is the horse .. the issues are of course the surface but we also have a
horse that ran a zero race in the last race but the POR was fast

We also have a horse who has been in the barn much more often than normal
and as a 3 year old this looks like a hurt horse after
line 3. Line 3 is a plus race against 3 year olds in a 75,000 stakes race.
But then it went on a break I would throw out line 2 Its a down the hill turf race at Santa Anita and these races are so unlike regular sprints because of the early POR adjustments that need to be factored in. I just disregard any down the hill paceline.

Line 1 will put this horse 4th on blbl for me
So a 4/1 ML and the question of is this horse's form,
I am not sure I am stumped Would bite the bullet and just watch
If there was no break after the stakes race and it was lesss than 90 days ago
I would use line 3 and excuse the last line as a higher purse race and a tired horse

Hope you get a better answer. Tough call for me :confused:

Bill thanks for posting this.
I am personally very much against this horse, the only reason i brought him up was because i thought the pace line selection was interesting.
In this race i selected #7 THE WHOLE DEAL. I see you dont even have him in you BL/BL, and this interests me. I used his line 3 back in his win, yes it was OC80k and now hes in for 32k, but ALL these horses in this race are making similar moves, i think they are all going downhill, so this will be a tough race.
I am not firmly convinced on any of these horses

Stakes and Handicaps
 

You and I both.. This is a pass- do some lady watching race for me.
I am weary of these turf lines I know turf horses can win on the poly but ..
this one looks like a downhill specialist


I wonder why a turf horse does not stay on the turf in California were
there are turf races all the time . but were else can they go until they get back to SA and the hill

Bill

Looking forward to see who wins this race, this one can go to ANYONE

Latekick,
I'll try to keep this short....LOL (for me that is next to impossible)

Just so there are no illusions...Back in 1985 I was profitable using the methodology (and that is exactly what it is - a method - a set of guidlines) learning from the Doc, Bradshaw, Brohamer, and the teachers from the PIRCO group at that time. However, I got away from racing. In April of this year (2013) I decided to pursue this in earnest. So, while I speak like I know what I am talking about, which I did, today as of this writing, I don't put money through the windows. Why?

You wrote "All of this is very important to me and being that I don't quite have a very high bankroll to play on, every wager is critical. I have been stryggling lately with horses that just don't rank very well beating me, and I need to stop this problem before it runs me broke."

That is exactly why. You are putting money through the window before you fix the problem.

When I first learned, I did it on paper using old Daily Racing Forms. (I had like three years worth of the paper stacked up in a corner.) I took the time to learn on paper. It wasn't enough to just show that I stats that said I was profitable....I had to feel it deep in my psyche to know for myself.

Yet, I didn't just jump into putting money through the windows. I handicapped live but on paper until again I had profitable stats and felt it deep in my psyche (notice I said profitable and not winning - I know, I know, the psychological mumbo jumbo - LOL). Then I progressed to putting money through the windows. That was then.

This is now...

While I had the previous knowledge somewhat stored somewhere in my mind, when I looked at the methodology and RDSS2 as it was being used today, I was rather confused. It looked very different from what I knew. So, I started on paper, again.

Now is the end of July. I have learned that while everything seems different, it is still very much the same at the core of the methodology. The way I approach a race is very different from the way I used to (this is a function of the advancements made from when I first learned - for example, I recognize the velocity tabs and even the energy tab, but, I never look at the velocity tab any more), yet, the fundamental principles still apply that are in For The Leads teaching thread. You can get the database just by downloading it and work through the material even though it takes away from doing live races. There is much to be learned and should be learned without putting money on the line.

And while I have changed my method of handicapping, I can say without a doubt that reading Bill's posts is like listening to the Doc as reincarnated. :) He is a walking encyclopedia of the method I read every word of his. The way he handicaps is very much similiar to the way I handicapped.

While I have spent about 4 months "again" learning the methodolgy, I have progressed from on paper using old races to on paper using live races and find myself profitable. Yet, I will not put money through the windows until I feel it in my bones that I am profitable at which time I will "go live" which will not be too much longer.

So while I speak from authority, I am also a beginner. It seems a contradiction, but, my past experience allows me to have a very unique perspective on the methodology as a whole.

I quoted you. You also raised a good question for you and one that you need to learn the answer to either by yourself (the answer is found in the practical application of what is in the teaching thread and remember nothing is 100% as there will always be nuances) or with someone's help and FTL and Bill both offer premium counseling/advice. If you are losing money, then stop putting money through the window until you do learn the answer to your question(s) that may be holding you back from being profitable.

Which as my last bit of advice... didn't I say I would try to keep this short???? LOL

If you are wagering and you come across a race that you have a question in your mind that does not allow you to make a clear distinction in your mind about the race, what should you do?

PASS THE RACE!!!

That is what winners do. If they are not sure about something after drawing upon their knowledge and experience, they pass the race. It has been written about time and again, but, each individual has to come to grasp with passing races in their own way. Emotionally, I would be heart sick if I could only wager on the weekend, spending hours handicapping and able to wager on only a few races. Mentally, I am making money! Playing to many races, I am losing money. Which do I want - the action or the profits? The choices are unique to every individual.

On paper from using old races, in the "comfort" of a risk free environment, I will handicap a card and amazingly, will only pass one or two races that I look at. Meaning as an example, if there are 10 races on the card, maybe I will not look at the two maiden races with many first time starters. Out o fthe remaining 8 races, I would pass only 1 or 2.

When I moved to using live races, yet, doing them on paper, now I pass 5 or 6 of those 8. Why? Confidence.

If I did not handicap the card today and three months from now I decided to look at the card, I would probably pass only 1 or 2, yet, today, I am passing 5 or 6.

But, and here is the important point..... I am PASSING the races. If I am unsure and I am not playing, I am not losing. Period.

If you make the argument that I am not winning, that is true but only due to lack of confidence. As I see that what I am doing is working, I will have more confidence to make the wagers and see the winning results which will give me more confidence. Yet, I still have the profitable method from which to progress from. Without it....

Sorry, everyone, that I got sidetracked since this original thread was about contender selection, but, I write as I see them which is quite often off the beaten path.

Jim<!-- / message -->

Heh, heh!!! Here I go again...not! LOL

I agree with Bill's assessment of Disarm as far as possibly being hurt. However,...

Look at the 4 April race 115 days ago for both horses. Same race with Disarm beating Whole. Look at their positions versus POR.

Whole was right where he should have been at the 2C. And so was Disarm. But, Disarm was facing a slightly faster POR 44 and 1 than he seems to be able to handle at a 44 and 3 or slower.

Now notice that Whole seems to be declining in form even though he is being run regularly and has recency.

Whereas Disarm may or may not be out of form. (Form and condition are not the same thing. It hay be out of condition - possibly hurt, but, I would argue against it being out of form.)

And this is where passing the race comes into play. You can see from Bill's assessment that he brings his entire body of knowledge and experience into play and is not sure - so he passes.

As for me, I would like to see more information. Unfortunately, I do not download Del Mar to see what else was in the race and cannot say one way or another although I do have questions, which would lean me towards passing the race also, but, that depends upon the other horses in the race.

The thing about these two horses is that the public will perceive them as "not a good horse to put money on". While I might be inclined to believe that about Whole, Disarm shows the kind of past performance that will pay a decent mutual. There are all of these 1's then 2's in the past then 5's and 6's in positions for the last two races. Depending upon what it is facing today, if it is a contender, it will go off at a higher price. It is a horse that can beat the favorite.

Whereas, with Whole, the public will shy away from this horse due to its Stretch and Final positions in its last two races and most likely rightly so becuse the 2C positions as compared to the POR it faced seem to be going out of form. Will its be a factor in today's race? If there are no other early horses, it will most likely have the lead and could possibly wire the field once again paying a high price. If there are other early horses or early pressing horses, it will run to the second call and then fade. It has to be considered because it will effect the POR. Unless there is no other horse that can run decently as a presser or sustained, then Whole would be a contender. But, if there is pressure up front, then no - not a contender, but, needs to be considered in "projecting" the race.

Which brings us back to Disarm. It is one of those horses that would be there just behind that early speed battle and would have enough in the tank as the early horses tire and would pass the horses that would be running slower due to the battle. The public would be on the favorites/early speed. While it does not look that great, it does not look that bad either and might be worth considering as a contender. If for some reason it found itself on the lead as in the past, then so much the better.

I wrote a post about numbers (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9206). Don't get too focused on the numbers. Focus on the relationships using the numbers to define the relationships.

If you focus on the numbers, you might come to a conclusion that Disarm cannot beat Whole due to the 4 APR race. But, that is not today and what might happen (the future) today. Remember, we are prognosticators - we take educated guesses at the future. No one knows until the race has been run. All we can do is to look at the information and form an opinion. Without a clear opinion, PASS........

Jim im going to respond to your posts but first id like Bill or anyone who has this card to post they re line selection and BL BL and tell me HOW in the world the #1 horse won this race

Too Fast
 

Hi Late Kick

I did not bet this race. I left Del Mar right after the first race,
I was betting PrX MTH and Saratoga in the early bird area.
I wanted to watch the Haskell online and talk to dad about the race.

Congrats to Verrazono :)

Anyway I have not seen the chart for the race 2 but I am pretty sure the 1 was on or close to the lead.

Before I show the other horses here is my thinking about the winner
Here we see of my contenders the 1 is ranked 2nd

Now looking at its pace lines I used line 2 Its a (+) plus within a zero
paceline The horse was within a neck of the lead at the 1/2 mile point
against much tougher $80,000 Optional Claimers before fading
Look at the early energy EPR number the 1 has a big advantage
and he earned it against better horses.

I could have used the Tampa line but it was a little farther back days ago
then I like. And heaven forbid I say "If I had used line 5 " LOL:)

Attachment 34846


Attachment 34847

Do you have any input or screenshots on how the #1 just won the 5th race..
Another horse that i found impossible to get

my lines and thinking
 

Here are my lines and comments about race 2 from DMR
The Rest

Horse 2 I used line 2
I could have used line 1 as a (+) but I figured since the rested the horse for 6 weeks
after so success it might have been tired in line 1

Horse 3 I suppose I could have gone back to line 4 ( sorry )

Horse 4 Same deal as horse 2 A good race then a dud against ALW
and then a 5 week rest I figure a MC 50 winner to be eventually
around a CL 25,000 winner today is CL32,000

Horse 5 Line 1 a plus pace line no reason to not use it

Horse 6 Nothing to go by since the MC win was down the hill at SA

Horse 7 and 8 we already know about

Attachment 34848


Attachment 34849

Attachment 34850

horse 5 and 6
 

5-6

Attachment 34851

Attachment 34852

Bill i have a question. In order to go back further than the last line, do you DEMAND the horses last line is a plus or a plus within a circle?
Or do you freely go back 2 to 3 lines even if the last line is not a plus or plus with a cicle?
Lets say the horses best of last 3 is 3 back on same surface and distance. but say the horse ran a zero last race, do you STILL go 3 back or what do you do with the horse?

Latekick,

Don't take me wrong. I am not beating you up, picking on you or anything like that.

It is just that in my quotes from you, I see myself :)

Absolutely anyone who has spent time handicapping has experienced what you are going through.

You handicap a race beforehand. You miss the race. You look at it to see what went wrong in your analysis. Ang guess what? You don't find anything. No matter how hard you look or try to rationalize, you can't find anything.

That is just racing. You won't "get it" sometimes.

There is some debate over whether or not to go back over a race. Jimmy Bradshaw started out going back and looking back but after a period of time stopped looking back at races that he handicapped feeling that it messed up his thinking. I can see his point. When you look at a race and just don't know how a horse could have won that race you begin to rationalize.... very dangerous to your game.

On the otherhand, a great majority of people do go back and they can see what jumps out at them for what they could have done. This is all well and good as long as you can apply that experience when necessary and it is based on correct theory. Unfortunately, most people cannot or do not.

Playing poker is the same way. The idea is to learn the theory and apply the theory because one isolated instant does not make what you did right or wrong. You can make a bad decision and win. You can make a good decision and lose - in any one hand. I think this also applies to handicapping. While you can look at a race, what matters is applying the correct theory over many races and not being critical over one isolated race.

Handicapping is not about being correct or right all of the time. It is about making good decisions. Once the gate opens, you have no control over the event, the horses do. If you made good decisions beforehand and a horse comes from out of nowhere, that is just racing. You made the correct decisions whether you get to the horse or not.

Again, latekick, I am not being critical of you so please do not take what I write the wrong way. My writing is almost like therapy for me because these are issues I struggle with too. Take it for what it is. If it makes sense, use it. If you think I'm full of it, that is fine too. Just don't think it is a personal attack on you or anyone else.

Jim

Jim i am glad you posted this.
Everything you say in that post, i need to read twice a day from now on. When i lose a race, i sometimes see the horse as impossible, so what do i do ( sometimes) i cahnge my thinking and proccess in order to MAKE this horse look like it was a good thing. That can ruin a handicapper. Im steadiluy starting to learn that when im wrong, understand i was wrong in THAT race and the next race i do check every possible thing i can to make sure im making a SMART descion. As you said, i may make a smart descion and still lose, but over the long haul, smart descions pay more than lots of lucky wrong descions. Id rather be a good handicapper with a tad of luck, not a bad handicapper with luck that will lead me down the wrong handicapping path

Hi late kick
 

I'm not really sure what you mean.

I can access any race on any card each day. If you can tell me the name of a horse and track and race # I gan look and explain why I use or don't use a pace line.
Also there are many post and some video's about making screen shots.
It would be great if you can make a screen shot of the PP that is giving you
a problem.

Some times I don't use the last line even if its a plus pace line
Verrazano in the Haskell yesterday is a good example.
Sometimes I will use a different paceline for reasons like distance, off track, competition level, field size!
Some times on the east coast this time of year races are taken off the turf and there are tons of scratches. You will see horses finishing 3rd but in a 4 horse field.

Bill

Bill, I am not currenyly a user of RDSS, I would LOVE to download the program, but right now the 2.50 per card would not be easy on me being that I download so many cards and im still only on a limited wagering budget.
I was taught how to use the Bris pps as basically my RDSS just without as much readouts,. Lt1 (Tim) taught me how to basically come up with the readouts by using the bris pace figs.
I really am intereste on improving my paceline selection, and would love to get some of your insight. Ive been glued to this sight the past few days and im just about almost halfway through reading EVERY ONE OF Your post. You sat down with Doc and capped races andchose pacelines, with him guiding you, id love to get your help with these paceline problems I have and get some of your screenshots. Im hoping to get RDSS next year.

Bill I can send you some of my problem pacelines through snapshots in email, so if your not too busy, shoot me an email and I will begin with my questions and here what you have to say. Ill private message you my email

Latekick,

Just for clarity, the RDSS PP files are $2.00 each, not $2.50 and if you buy 20 cards for $30 a month, that equals $1.50 each, then $1.25 each after the first 20.

cheers,

Ted

Thanks Ted. For $30 a month and than only 1.25 after that i think ill be okay.
I have watched all the videos on this site, more than once now. I love the way RichieP explains and teaches, i would like to see some more videos from him. IVe been emerced in the Sartin Method for over a year now but these past 6 months i have rally begun studying and doing everything i can to learn.
Im really considering purchasing RDSS, i love the colors, it helps my eye attach to what i need to be looking at, and all the great info on here day in and day out is alos great. Thanks for the prices Ted.

Pace lines
 

Hello Late Kick


From your email
My thoughts
I would not have gone back to line 2. The race you are asking about is a
CL 30 non winners of two life. The last line is a plus + paceline against
winners. This is the line. The distance and track DEL are a slight issue, but going back over 289 days is a bigger question mark, and its only a MC 25 race. A good practice is to do what Doc says he did.. Stick a note on your computer monitor or screen that says "Is this line comparable to today's race, distance, surface or competition level." and ask this for each horse as you pick lines.
Its acceptable to use maiden wins in non winners of two lifetime races.
But its also a good rule of thumb to rate a maiden claimer at 1/2 of its maiden claiming win value. So I would expect horse 4 to be a 12.5 - 15,000 claimer down the road.

Here is the RDSS paceline screen for your horse

Attachment 34866


Here is the winner of the race
The winner shows two plus races against winners, Its last line was a plus race against winners at this same level farther down it shows a plus line in an allowance race, This is the horse you have to beat.
Its best if you use plus lines earned against winners in non winner of two
lifetime races.

Attachment 34865

Hey guys. I want to reread about form cycle analysis. I think it's in the yellow and pace line manual? Correct? What pages should I be looking for?

Hey dirty moose,

Beginning on:

page 37 in the Paceline Manual
AND
page 8 in The Matchup Manual red

Jim

Thank you Jim

Sticky
 

Hi Guys

I don't use the graph paper. RDSS2 has the plus races color coded,
So its easy to focus on them.
But Its a good practice to do the notations on horses yourself too.
To keep this skill, instead of graph paper I use the sticky notes feature
in windows 7 or even on scrap paper.

Here is a horse running at DMR today in race 6.
I have done my own notations. and I will use line 1

Attachment 34931

Heres a race from LAD I found interesting today. Is the #1 a standout?
Ill try to key in on him and let him make my day if hes 3/1 or higher.

Im starting to feel more and more confident with my selections, ive been being mentored by Tim ( LT1) and I must say, he knows what hes talking about. Ive read lots of posts on here and watched every video I could, but just one phone conversation with Tim really helped me too see things more clearly. Hes been practicing the Sartin method for many many years and he freely shares information that he has learned from trial and error. Hes no newbie to any of this and he has really helped me take my game to the next level. Im nowhere near his win Percentage, nor profits, but he has lots of knowledge, and knows exactly how to explain it in a simple, yet effective way. Every mentor on this site ( BillV, FTL, etc etc) are all very knowledgable and are very effective teachers. I appreciate all the work they put in in order to help us learn and become an effective handicapper. They are all legitimate handicappers and I will believe any word they say because I KNOW that they have been with the method for a long amount of time and are only trying to help. The reason im posting this is to just say thank you, to BillV, too Because I can Jim, to FTL, and most of all to Tim, who has helped me and will continue to develop me into a winner as he is. He hit the pick 6 yesterday at Saratoga along with 8 daily doubles 7 pick 3s and 2 pick 4s, making out for a EXTREMLEY profitable day. Theres lots of handicappers out there that will be overtaken by their ego and say, "well that's not true hes just saying that theres no way you can do that." Why speak and think like this, I say to all who are saying what I just quotes? WHY not say, theres a man out there who did this yesterday, who says I cannot reach this level of play,a nd work as hard as I can in order to achieve this success? I asked the same question after I saw Tim hit all of those wagers ( he posted them on a different site as he does every day) and after asking myself this question, I simply emailed Tim asking if we could handicap together Friday. As always he agreed too, and within me now I am filled with excitement as I always am to learn from Billv or FTL of Jim or Tim. I am on a path to success and all these guys are helping me along. So to conclude this rant, id like to once again give a special thanks to Tim, and a special congrats on his day yesterday. No hes not a freak of handicapping nature, hes a firm believer in this methodology, and has practiced it as hard as he figured he could. Thanks Tim for working hard as you do, and allowing me, and other you have helped, to take grasp of your knowledge. Congrats on your day yesterday Tim, and good luck today!


P.S to all on this website. Do ask questions! BillV and FTL and Jim and all these knowlegable handicappers have been so willing to help and share there knowledge. Im hoping LT decides to share his knowledge on this site as he has shared his knowledge with me. Hes a great man, and a hard working, great handicapper.

And that my friends, is my thank you to all! Good luck today

Hey LK. Tim did have quite a day yesterday. He hit the P6 and multiple ex's.
He's tough me a lot as well!

turns out he was. Only played 7.20 but prime plays like this that are my "day makers" do pay off

late
 

Hi I could not find the race !
please provide that info LOL:D

anyway

Great work on the winner

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Hey Bill. Thanks for posting your reasons for your pace lines. Its really helping me. Heres race 2 at Del Mar.
I like the #1 here. Hes ranked well where he needs to be in order to win a race like this at this track going this distance. I usually do the 2 horse betting but in here other than the #1 I just cant find anyone else, so ill bet to win AND PLACE.
Race 2 at DMR

OUCHHHH! Tough beat!
Ill get my place money back and I doubled up on the place but that was ONE exciting race!
Winner was 23/1. Talk about an upset.