Saratoga, Whitney Stakes G1, 2013
 

This has nothing to do with the West V derby but I figured since its a feature race, id like to see some of your opinions on another feature today, The Whitney at Sar.
Im going with #5 RON THE GREEK and also #8 FAST FALCON. I don't have too much on my model for these Dirt Routes so far at Sar so I could be completely wrong, so I will demand high odds on both selections or ill pass, just because the fact that im making descions off of a model that is not fully developed yet, so im basically picking these two off of HOW I THINK this model is going to look. Will probally pass anyway, but if both go off at around 8-1 or higher, maybe something small just to root something home.
Anyway, good luck today

start a new
 

Hi Late Kick

This one looks like a good race to watch these are the real deal older horses

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Line for Ron
 

Hi Late Kick

I see you used the CT 1500 grade 2 line for Ron

The reason I did not use that line was
1. The track is a bull ring. I wanted to use only 1 mile ovals
2. The 97 speed rating.
In its plus races on non bull ring tracks its speed ratings are
from oldest to most recent
87, 86, 91, 93, 92, 92,

Do you see how that 97 might be
because of the bull ring adjustment ?

Just thinking out load.
Bill

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BillV THANK you for pointing this out to me. I agree with you 100 %. I think this figure is a toss out because of how much higher it is on the bull ring. I went back and chose his last race and it changed my readouts and also my perception of the race.
Now, IM REALLY leaning towards FORT LARNED and im still going to stick with Fast Falcon.
Hopefully my thinking of how the model will look is right, if it is, maybe the #8 can come in at a price, but will probally be tough to beat FORT LARNED

Bill V.

Hello Bill...

When you get a chance, can you post the screen shot of the energy tab of Rdss of your readouts.

Fort Larned is number one on Epr but looking at the early pace fractions of Cross Traffic, I am sure that he has an huge first fraction advantage in this matchup; even after adjusting for Belmont's one turn mile..

Thanks in advance...

Lone speed

Hi guys

FPLR, Fighter - Cross Traffic.

Paraphrasing "The Hat"

"If a horse does not have to run as fast today, then gollee! it's time to release the elastic band."

Fractions were

24.17 - 47.28 -70.28 - 94.8 - 107.89

JV conserved Energy early, injected pace in middle when FL started his move and managed to have enough fight left to hold on to wire.

Hope this helps.

Hey Charlie...

Great to have you back on board!!!

I had read a lot of your posts in the matchup thread.

Sartin/Bradshaw......Ying/Yang.

Those two brilliant minds-it behooves one to use both ideals in unison to approach the matchup of each race.

Thanks again....

Lone speed

The essence of the Match up
 

Great post regarding the match up of this race!!!:cool:

LS,

Here are the RDSS Velocity and Segments screens, using Bill's contenders (roughly the same as what I had originally, though I chose to include Fast Falcon who was never going to influence the early going).

The F1 columns show either of Cross Traffic's last 2 lines as clearly superior to Ft Larned's. Indeed, Cross got to slow it down more than 1 full second at the 2f point and more than 2 seconds (!) at the 4f point compared to his 2 last lines. All that 'gas' was still in reserve at the top of the stretch ...

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I did bet Ft Larned and Cross Traffic to Win, which just about covered my losing Exactas ...

Ted

Ted real quick question, I see you entered 2 pace lines, how do you do this on RDSS2? Anytime I click a line it selects that and and when I click another rline it switches to that one, how do you select 2 lines?

Energy
 

Here you go Lone Speed

Here are the PP's with the Energy Tap on the bottom

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Energy
 

5 6 7 8
sorry I can't get all 10 lines on the bottom tab

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Bill

Use Ctrl+leftclick (click) for multiple lines. (FWIW, select ALL lines by clicking the checkbox in the header). With multiple lines selected, simply click on any line to deselect all the others and select the one you clicked. To deselect one of multiple lines but leave the others still selected, just CTRL-click on the one you are deselecting.

Here are some other other keyboard/mouse click combos and short-cuts:

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9263

Ted

Ted and Bill
Many thanks!!!

Thanks for the time to snag and post the energy screens.

My point was to emphasize the myriad of tools available within the Sartin Methodology. The power of the Methodology is not in "one magic screen"; but in using the tools at our disposal, to break down a race or the match-up of a given race.

Many have strived to "emulate" Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw's matching prowess. It is not necessary!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We have Sartin programs or readouts like the Energy readouts to aid us what Bradshaw could do in his mind, "mystically".


Bradshaw's Matchup concepts! Sartin's Readouts!!!

Ying and Yang as Doc Sartin alluded to enigmatically, many times in the Follow Up issues.

We will not analyze every playable race correctly or proficiently; but we can get our "fair share" depending on our handicapping skills and our paceline selections.

The final process is not an automatic step where one just zoom in on the final readouts.

It behooves one to dig deeper into the readouts of the program and to analyze the early pace match up within the programs.

Thanks again, Ted and Bill :cool:

From the Hat
 

" The Hat"
ok here is the first thing Jim says to look for ( see screenshot).

So in this race which horse or horse(s) is most likely to get out of the gate FIRST and LEAD ?

If you find just one horse then we look and see if that horse can expect any PRESSURE from another early or early presser at the 1c and/or 2nd call.

What does this race look like? how does it " set up" to be won?

are there a lot of early/ early press that might set it up for a sustained to win?

is there little or no early pressure that would point to early/ early press having a BIG edge?
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