Race analysis another way
 

Hi I started a new thread with my own way of doing a race
Because I can Jim is making very nice videos of this same race.
and I don't want to jump on his thread.

I am sorry that I don't show many different screens
and I really don't go into great detail about the times and positions.
The reason I don't is, as for as I'm concerned, my work and handicapping
comes from my line selection.

I guess I'm not doing RDSS it due because I don't make horses
secondary contenders, I don't hide or eliminate horses and I only look at
2 or 3 screens, In the race I will show I did not enter a line for some horses,
To me they were not win candidates so I just don't enter a line for those non contenders .

Any way here is my way of doing a race,
It involves ...
Understanding the race conditions
Using recent + or (+) pacelines
Making visual running style notations
Looking at the original lines screens
Then looking at either BLBL or the segments screen

Hope you like the video
Bill
Attachment 35222

screens
 

I wanted to make two screen caps from the video

Here is the segments screen. although the 4 is not a early horse
RDSS projects it to have the best first fraction and turn time
The 3 is the Early horse so it is going to use its energy to stay ahead of the
4. It did but the 4 had enough energy to pass it and win.

Attachment 35223

Attachment 35224

Bill

Very nicely done.

Lawrence

past performances
 

Here are the conditions, and entries screen
I have added the PP's with my pace line selection comments

Attachment 35233

Attachment 35234

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Attachment 35236

horses
 

5 6 7

Attachment 35237

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horse 1
 

For some reason my screen shot for horse 1 above has the 4th line selected.:confused:
I used the last line

Attachment 35241

Bill,

Thanks for the video and the posting. It is much appreciated.

In doing this, everyone can see different approaches. One is not more right or wrong than the other. They are just different.

It also show that it is possible to have different approaches and still end up on the same horse(s).

What I found most interesting from your video is your reasoning for eliminating horse 5, how your choice of paceline selected changes the "look" of the Segments tab and, finally, how you go about your thought process in analyzing a race.

Lastly, you made one video about 11 minutes long. Don't you agree it is really tuff to make short videos? You have got so much going on in your mind that you want to blurb out, yet, you are always watching the clock. I hope that this does not deter you from making other videos and making mutliple parts if necessary to be able to more fully explain your thinking about a race.

I also hope that in my or your making multiple videos, it does not deter people from watching them! LOL

Anyway, thanks for this. It is good to see a bit of ying against the yang so that new people especially can see that there really isn't just "One Way" of doing things.

Jim

Ohhh... and just one last thing.... I almost forgot.....

Your showing the TRP+E/L tab points out somethign very interesting that I had not considered.

Look at the 3 horse. When you look at his past performances, it looks soooo early. Yet, when looking at the tab, the energy expenditure was so late at 12.0 in its last line. We both went back one line, albiet for different reasons. I have an affinity for energy versus say velocity. This is a good example of how things are not necessarily what they appear to be. Don't you agree?

timing
 

Thank You Jim

Yes I know what you mean, If I make the video too long, sometimes its hard
to upload and then I have to have Ted's help.

As you heard I'm thinking about the time and I do get nervous,

Anyway I'm glad you liked the video. I would make more but I think my
way of doing races does not make a good video because I really don't use RDSS to its full extent.

As far as the Early Late graph on the TPR screen, I have used the Early Late graph since it first
became part of the methodology. I use it as a visual, Its easy for me to see
energy excretion figures in the various lines and I can spot lines which are
not typical, Ted did a good thing by letting us see the + races color coded
and the early late graph on the same screen as the pace lines

You are welcome Bill.

I do not use RDSS to its full extent either. Whatever I do or whatever you do is more than good enough. Anything anyone does as long as it is constructive is good enough. So, again, thanks for the effort. :) I got something out of it even though you may not feel it is "good enough."

Jim

L
 

I'm glad it was helpful
and you liked it

Bill, aka
William Lawrence Simon Varone

Thanks Bill for sharing your insights. Well done.

Tim

Great video Bill. I had asked for one last week and BOOM you deliver. Pretty good stuff in there. On to Jim's video next...

hey Bill, thanks for the videos and I think this race at Del Mar may be another example of using the segments screen along with running styles.
Race 7 at Del Mar today.
Heres the segments


The 1 and 7 are both E horses that wont get the lead. In this situation would you take the horses that are saving the MOST energy early?
What would you take from this segments screen?

late
 

Sorry I had to leave Del Mar I just got home but can't handicap. I'm going out tonight.

Just looking at your screen real quick the first thing I would do is throw out the
20/1 ML horse.
But remember this is because they hardly ever win and I only care about the winner.

I will look closer when I get home tonight

GS
Bill

unable to do it
 

Hello Late Kick

I am sorry I can not do what you ask, I had to put my feelings and reasons
this short video, I apologize, if I got angry at the end.
My emotions get the best of me, Its fantastic that your looking to get better
and your willing to listen and learn. I am not condemning your pace line ability.
I just need to use representative pace lines if I am to analyze this or any race.

Attachment 35323

result chart
 

Del Mar race 7
Attachment 35324

Look For A Corollary
 

In viewing a horses form cycle we use this in the read outs as a tool of many tools in our RDSS tool box.

Looking at the form cycle we can see the horses where there best level and not so good by using the simple + and (+) lines. It sure helps to start right of with basic approach.

Thanks again for your view on as we continue down this road and others take the long way home to get the winner.

It's hard enough as it is to get the winner why make it more difficult.

About the title Look for a Corollary this little nugget of info is right out of the Red Manual.

Bill Thanks again for you guidance and help.

Lawrence

Thanks!
 

Hi Bill:

Just got back from a nice week vacation with the wife. Always goes by so fast.

Okay - down to business. First off thank you for taking the time to make the video. For all those that do this it really helps the rest of us. I'd contribute however I'm not at that stage yet - perhaps in a few more months, years or decades lol.

In the video you have the #6 as sustained however, to me, it looked like more of a presser (late in the early stages and closing the gap in the stretch). I'd like to hear why you picked S for this horse.

Thanks again for the video.

I was eating dinner I was thinking about this video and why you picked S for that horse. Correct me if I'm wrong Bill but as I visioned the running style in my head the horse was gaining position because the others were spent and decelerating therefore this horse was making up ground as others were losing it (?).

Is it the red manual that defines running styles and how to assign them?

One more question, while I can visually see the separation of the running styles in RDSS what are the numbers that go into them in RDSS? How can I look at the call times and see, in my head, what the horse is doing? Is there a table of averages that defines the E from the EP and from the S?

Running Styles
 

hello Terry

I think this is just about the best guide for making the ESP running styles.
I just got a sad but also happy memory of sitting at Jim Bradshaw's
kitchen table and learning how to make these running style marks.

From Jim Bradshaw ... In his 5 step approach to the match up

Attachment 35381

Bill these videos are great. Hopefully you and Jim keep them coming.
Thank you

Thank You
 

Thank you
I had fun looking in on your MNR selections with Tim and Matt and Rmath.
It was great to see Rich back on Pace and Cap. He did very well
Congrats to you guys and thanks for your sharing with the group.

I had a great time at Del Mar
Its a little hard to start somebody out with the methodology.
My friend and I worked a few races, I think the thing he really liked
was the tote ex ray. He had already worked the races out of the DRF
so it was a little hard to explain the readouts.

Anyway

It was a nice day, and we had some laughs. I invited him to come over next weekend for Pace and Cap days - at Del Mar.
I hate to see people get discouraged, he smiled a lot today so that made the work worth it.

Bill