Tampa Bay 2/5/14 R-9
 

Was going over this race and was interested in what the BL/BL had to say.

First the cast:

Continued
 

The rest of the field

Continued
 

Segs & TPR:

It looks to be a fast pace and it will be a fight between the 3 & 7.

What I found interesting is that RDSS has the #6 on top in the BL/BL however looking at the pp for this horse it has never been faced with the type of fast pace it will see today. The 8 has faced times like these but hasn't been able to finish. The 2 has also faced these times but didn't finish well either.

It all maybe moot as they are predicting showers for tomorrow.

Interested in what others see.

Thanks.

Agree that the 3 and 7 will duke it out. They have run fast three times, fought all the way with the 3 winning each time. No reason to think that will change as both have run as fast as 55.0 at this distance. Need someone to break them up, so I see the 2 who is most sustained and only running its 2nd turf sprint as possible interloper. Note it closed 7-5-4-3 in last and none of the other P/SP types looks to be able to close against fast early fractions. The 5 has best 5f time of about 57.4 against slower places, never ran against this fast a pace and is a ? mark (WO hardly ever runs this fast early in turf sprints, so until the horse faces this pace it remains an outsider for me.)

Value wise take the 2 to win, box 2-3-7 in exacta and tri and hope for a price.

All the best,

Thanks for the analysis Bill.

One other fly in the ointment is Jamie Ness, who's been a golden boy as of late, is the trainer of 8 which is going off at 4.

Should be interesting to see how the betting plays out.

i understand what you are saying but horse has only won on the lead or very near to it - E or e/p - so he could help compromise either or both of the 3 and 7 which only helps the 2 IMHO. Look at last race for the 8 when vs hot pace it lost position and lengths against those two ( 3 and 7 )

Tom Hanks, "... there is no crying in baseball..."

Tampa
 

If the race stays on the turf I like 8-3

Looks like race is on Tf. So what 's the consensus

#8 and 9 are early scratches...

Regarding #6 being on top whereas inspection says #3 or#7. I have found this quite often even manually doing the Matchup. . So I then use Speed points to resolve the situation. Typically software programs may search for the best time without considering ESP.( Having said that an S1 is a very good bet.)
Barryt

looks like the 3, 7, 2, tandem may repeat...can't consider #6 because he is first time turf and I don't different surfaces for pace lines so 6 is automatic throwout...he will just have to beat me....looks like 3 and 7 hookin' up again and one of them should win...looks like the 2 needs more distance to me..if he would make a move in the turn ??? maybe, but he doesn't start running til' he gets in the stretch and at 5F he doesn't seem to have enough ground to make is late run count...if they get a little rain that might help him...looks chaulky 3 or 7 wins it...prices to low, looks like a no bet race to me

I like the #4. Drops back in distance to where he has won 45%. Last race was a Starter Hcp and none of the horses in this field seem to be 100k types, so he may be taking a drop in class.

I would go 4-3-2 if I'm not out shoveling snow.

Ray

yea...I also looked at the #4...he was borderline for me...if the #3 decides to put up one of the 43 second half miles again...don't think the 4 wants any part of that...but he is a possible at good odds

The #3 pulled up on the backstretch the #7 had no excuse after running a 46.0 half..which helped the #2 to stay closer to the pace and win it late....I was lookin' for a 44.0 half ..didn't happen

2-7-6-4

Who is celebrating?

If only they were all this accommodating. Who knew the 3 would flake out at the start. Perfect outcome in my mind.

don't know
 

I don't know if he did or not but If we use FTL's guidelines
of a + or (+) within a zero within 90 days on a COMPARABLE
distance surface. The $14 winner #2 is the bet

Attachment 36685

Attachment 36686

The trouble I had with this race is there are so many layoffs and the horses best race way back in the PP"s Its a hard race to put all my trust in.

I don't know if he did or not but If we use FTL's guidelines
of a + or (+) within a zero within 90 days on a COMPARABLE
distance surface. The $14 winner #2 is the bet

Can someone explain "(+) within a zero"
Thanks
Don

I didn't have the card, but just looking at what Segs posted I had the 2 and 8 as final contenders to include in exotics. 2 is 82% ITM lifetime (all but last 2 starts). I've known Jaime long enough to know you ignore his entries at your own peril. Didn't happen to pay this trip though.

Don, Bill does a good job on the +/(+) explanation, or you can find it in the Matchup. There's been lots of posts about it.

way to go Bill !!!!!!!!!!

Beautiul Bill - well done. I bet 6 and 8 but Jamie scratched the 8. If Ness is in the game I'll either bet or forget depending on the value.

+ (+) 0
 

Hi Don

This is from the Pace line manual

Attachment 36687


I gave the 8 a (+). The reason is even though it did not finish in the money,
it is a even effort against a fast EPR pace of race
It was involved in the pace of race into the stretch in its first race after a layoff and at Tampa.

Bill

Nice job Bill L., all over that one man!!!

Thanks Bill, Wanted to make sure, I didn't miss something.