Entropy 2- Betting to Place
 

Doc said the lowest score on the Sort D/CV Composite screen gets the place horse more than 90% of the time...

Here is race 1

Attachment 37680

Attachment 37679

Here is race 2

Attachment 37681


Attachment 37682

another sample race... Race 6

Attachment 37685

Attachment 37687

Race 8

Attachment 37677

Attachment 37688

I apologize if I can't get my screen capture right...this grandpa is not tech savvy...but anyway,looks like an alternative way to bet if you don't like 2-horse in betting.

Fixed
 

Hi Ray

I cleaned up your post. It was very hard to follow along before

Yes Entropy gets the top pick to place very often.

Thanks,Bill.I checked my last 2 months of playable races,and in 178 races ...Entropy got the place horse in 151 of them.In 10 races,i picked the wrong pace line...

The ave.place payoff on those 151 races was $3.80.It would be a nice supplemental income to senior citizens like me.

Hi Ray,
That is some nice work getting to know a old program.are you using a odds gold to
make the file for entropy,and if you do,is the file adjusted or raw.
I have used a odds to create files for synthesis,I adjusted them,but only got mixed results.
Thanks Pete

Hi Pete,

I use Aodds 98 Super Gold and the files are exported 'raw' to Entropy/Kgen/Exdc Thoromation Directory.
Entropy to Thoromation works best for me.

Ray

I find that looking at Val4's pacelines easier to the eyes and everything is equalized,adjusted and normalized.I use those 4-5 contenders and pacelines when I go to Aodds.I can't export it to Energy because Aodds 98 only exports to 4-call programs like Entropy/Kgen and Exdc/Thoromation.

Hi Ray,

Thanks for the help,will try resetting old programs and folders
dos box,a odds on this newer windows 7 pc.I should have all the
files,it's just making it all work together.

I have been using synergism 4,but manual entry is slow.

I will ask you a question or two if you don't mind when i'm up and running.

Pete

Ray or Bill or Ted,

What in RDSS would relate to Entropy?

Thanks,

Bud

Hi Ray,

Thanks for the help,will try resetting old programs and folders
dos box,a odds on this newer windows 7 pc.I should have all the
files,it's just making it all work together.

I have been using synergism 4,but manual entry is slow.

I will ask you a question or two if you don't mind when i'm up and running.

Pete

Hello Bud
Entropy and RDSS/Validator are very similar
I would imagine VDC and deceleration and whats going on in the 3rd panel
on the segments screen are formulas born out of entropy


Entropy is a nice program I do very well with it when I send the
top 5 TPR horses or the low 4 horse from the D/VC composite sort
to thoromation So I would think that the VDC readout in RDSS
would get me the same results

If you use Entropy you may get the same horses in slightly different orders
but nothing major. The thing I tell people is to remember each Sartin
program is an improvement or was intended to be an improvement over the previous one. RDSS is the latest program. Any viable readouts
in Entropy are in RDSS Ted will know which ones they are.

I don't like to compare programs so I don't know exactly
how to answer your questions. I use all the Sartin programs. But I focus 100 percent on the one program I happen to being using at the time.

Occasionally I do see both programs readouts side by side
I did do a comparison yesterday for a member here who also was interested in Entropy
Entropy and RDSS both had the $9 winner in the top 3
Thoromation got the winner 2nd Rdss had it 3rd
RDSS had a horse in the top 3 that Entropy did not
that did nothing. It happens the other way just as often

I hope Ted can help you too

Good
 

Good Skill Pete

Hope you catch on soon
Nothing worse than making a mistake on the hand entry
Its a tough game. I am getting itchy for Ted to get the 4 all export out !!!:)

Bill

Bill
 

Ray

I mentioned this race in my reply to Bud .
The 6 is the low on the sort. The 3 is second lowest
The 3 won and paid $9.60

In regards to your post the 6 did not place it finished 4th but what is interesting
is that In the same vain the low sort horse places often,
The second low sort horses win -by design - often !
Doc says this was done to help people catch more exacta wins

Attachment 37739

Attachment 37740

Howard Sartin
 

One thing that i think a lot of Sartin based handicappers forget or overlook, is that the game has changed dramatically since the heyday of the various Sartin programs. A lot of the data which was an accurate predictor then is no longer either valid or will show a positive R.O.I. in todays sophisticated handicapping enviornment.

I think if you pick your spots well,you can still make a profit using Energy/Kgen/Exdc Thoromation...My two cents worth...

Sartin
 

bbopjz,

I disagree with you that the Sartin methodology is outdated. Ted has done a great job of making it user friendly RDSS)and current. If you follow the correct paceline selection and betting decisions (wagercapping), a person can do quite well. There are other methods of play as well.

Good luck to you.:)

Thanks,
Bud

and you can still make money using Val4,using the top 3 V/DC and betting w/the right odds...

agree
 

I am with Ray and Bud here

The only or one a the few problems I have is when a horse wins a race where I can not give it a representative pace line. All Sartin programs are pace line driven or a horse is evaluated for the match up from its pace lines.

So I have no issue with any program in the Sartin tool kit
When I lose its not the programs fault

Good Skill :)

Bill

Hi Ray,a odds exports to energy,the file is a rac file.

Hi Bill, you said a readout in entropy in the third panel is like an early vdc
that's the screen from Rays screen shots.what is the rating please.

Hi bebop jz,like you say now roi is in play.the methodology can give
you insights to what tracks to play.or not to play.where a rating is
paying good prices. Or like at Woodbine 6 fur has a good model and 7 fur
is not that hot.

One of the problems I have (not with any posters or posts, but with my own greed and laziness) is that when someone posts an archival procedure or alternative handicapping methodology, I immediately abandon whatever I'm doing and search out the information that might give me an easier way to make some cash. When I read Ray's possible place-betting idea, I put aside my handicapping studies (I am presently going through my 2010-2011 PHA/Parx files and races to improve my pace line selection ability) and went through some of the old Follow Up magazines (ex: Issue 36) to read up on "Entropy" - which was one of the corollaries included on the RDDS 0.99 software.
I came to the conclusion then that it is an older equivalent of V/DC (velocity and deceleration) and began to go through a bevy of races to see if I could use it as a methodology rather than win betting. It seems that Ray and Bill are correct that it frequently points to the place horse, but it doesn't appear to me that the RDDS version could be used as a regular method of place handicapping. I think I'll follow Bill's and Doc's advice and refer to the V/DC more in exactas. Thanks to Ray and Bill for their observations. Now back to the 2010 and 2011 pacelines.

Quote:
<table border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border:1px inset"> Originally Posted by noddub62 http://paceandcap.com/forums/images/...s/viewpost.gif
Ray or Bill or Ted,

What in RDSS would relate to Entropy?

Thanks,

Bud
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Bud,

In RDSS (and Validator), V/DC is Entropy. Velocity relative to Deceleration. It's all in one readout.

You can read a very in depth article about Dr Sartin's journey from Entropy and Deceleration to Validator and V/DC, in Follow Up 76, starting on Page 64 'Futureworld - Successful Handicapping in the 21st Century'.

To a certain extent, Dr Sartin continues that discussion about Entropy and Deceleration in Follow Up 77, beginning Page 16.

The formula for V/DC is based on the concepts he describes in FU 76. When mixed with the BL/BL weighted line score (he mentions Total Energy, but he switched to the more complex BLBL), it achieves the accuracy he felt was the epitome of his life's work.

FWIW, the 'Entropy' factor from Validator is NOT Entropy from the old Entropy program (a maddening fooling-around with labeling). It is in effect the factor labelled as DCL (Deceleration) in RDSS and Spec160, so I eliminated the redundant Entropy factor (see this discussion about the discontinued Entropy and SPN readouts: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8339)

Val4 = RDSS. Entropy lead to V/DC, which is in RDSS.

Dr Sartin would have been a crazy old dude to have taken a good program (Entropy) and 'burnt it down' if he did not think he was coming up with something better (Validator & V/DC). But he was anything but crazy! Entropy had too many numbers (or, exposed the derivation of the potent number) and so he felt people had too much to think about, too many decisions. And still, the velocity/deceleration concept, before being weighted by an overall performance measurement, often gave too much credit to those slow horses who naturally decelerated less. So he turned it into 1 number and weighted it by the weighted Primary Line score (BL/BL).

Voilà - the modern V/DC of Validator and RDSS.

If you are finding yourself baffled by too many numbers (even decelerating at the wrong moments ;)): consider simplifying your handicapping life.

Ted

Thanks for the tutorial & I'll check out your links. I believe Doc titled it or refered to it as "White Papers" but it was a little over my hear at the time. Guess I'll go back and try to absorb it.

Bottom line for me though is to handicap using the KISS theory. Having found what works for me and not having to make a multitude of decisions and being consistent is my KISS!

Thanks,
Bud

one more sample race...PRX R3 6-3-2014...Entropy
The winner was Keepmeinstitches paid $5.80, second lowest score...the lowest score,Hotcha paid $5.80 to place...

I can keep my comments about Entropy quite simple: every person who owns the Entropy program (i.e. who bought it from Doc Sartin) and who enjoys it and gets good use from it should definitely continue to use and profit from it. This forum is for those people to enjoy and benefit from (learn better use of their tools, share tips, teachings, etc).

Most members of Paceandcap will not have access to Entropy (or any of the other older programs) - they are not for sale, you can't get them anymore - unless someone makes you a free copy of theirs and hands it to you, and we have a long standing policy here of NOT enabling or supporting that.

Some people inevitably think that they might be 'missing out' on something by not having Entropy (or Energy or Thoromation, or whatever), and will waste valuable time and focus by wondering about that, instead of getting on with mastering the tools which ARE available.

Sure there are differences in Total Energy calculations between the old programs and RDSS - but all the differences are consistent within each program (e.g. it makes no difference if a beaten length is valued at 8 feet, 8.333 or 10 feet - as long as you use the same value uniformly throughout each program. Etc ...)

I'll let Doc speak (via Follow Up 76) as to what's included in V/DC, and where it came from.

As for accuracy, what to speak convenience, see the next post ...

Ted

RDSS - automated, out of the box, 0 minutes of user processing:

Attachment 37746

Admittedly not much of a stretch for Entropy, RDSS or most any program ...

Ted

Ray Race 7
 

Hi Ray

Race 7 The winner # 8 is ranked second
Keep up the good work

Attachment 37747

Attachment 37748

Bill,

If you use Val4 ,there are only 5 real contenders: 1- 1a- 3-4 and 8. and the #1 Myth Master was scratched...Using these remaining 4 horses,i put them through Jim Bradshaw's Aodds98 because of it's 4-call export capability to Entropy/Exdc/Kgen...You would have gotten the lowest score,#8 Timeseeker which won , only paid 2.80 to place,but it's still a 40% profit ...

#8 Talent Seeker...(not Timeseeker)...sorry for the wrong name of the horse.

I'm retired and have plenty of time in my hands so this 'betting to place' idea came to me in instances when I can't stay infront of my computer checking the odds for 2-horse-win betting...My grandkids always ask me to play with them or go to the park and I want to bet in advance,and this place betting idea came to me...I still prefer 2-horse bets when I got access to the odds but in times I want to play golf or the wife wants to go to the movies,this type of betting works for me...

V/dc
 

I handicapped and watched Parx Race 3 at race time with the same selection as Ted without paying much attention to the VDC. I had also handicapped Race 7 but I was so bored with the selections that I didn't pay that race much attention. Then later this evening when i read the posts by Ray and Bill, I went back to my selections. I had a different selection in my Rdss than Bill - I had chosen horse #5 rather than #2 as a sustained selection in a fast pace race and had chosen to use his 3rd race back on April 14th. I used the TE's, and even though horse #1 had scratched, # 8 was still rather low in the segment ratings:

Attachment 37752

But he did have a V/DC of 0.0, the lowest, better than the 1A. This seems to endorse the Entropy model. I am including the BL window as well:

Attachment 37753

The corollaries of #8 look even more weak but nevertheless his V/DC is the lowest, a "1". Does this indicate that Ray's "Place Wagering" with Entropy 2 is also possible with the RDSS 2 V/DC. Ted says that it is the same. I'm also a retiree. This would be a great play to add to my handicapping.
Minutes to handicap, hours to figure out the screen capture. Watched Ted and BILL finally!

The race
 

Hello Ray and Wilbur

I really did not intend to post race 7 as a handicapped race.
I did not want to compare RDSS to Entropy.

This is the classic programs forum,
I did make a long reply to Ted. I had many doubts to Ted comment that VDC is all the entropy readouts rolled into one.
I made a very long post explaining why I think this is a comment
that is not 100% true. but I decided to delete it.

I only picked lines for some horses that did not
cause RDSS to have to make a big adjustment.
I tried to keep the lines as close to 6 furlongs as I could. The purpose of my post was to show that RDSS and Entropy calculate the race, and things like Total Energy Energy Excertion and VDC ( the final sort) differently.
I tried to use only plus recent pace lines for my demonstration
It was not meant as a handicapping demo. I just want to be clear about that.

So I am sure you guys get different results than I about race
7

Yes, Bill, I think that I understand what you're saying. That was my original impression as well from my limited reading, that there would likely be some differences, but I assumed that basically they are the same. I didn't mean to open up a can of worms. I know that you and Ray, experienced and knowledgeable Sartin handicappers, are coming from a different place than myself.
I'm slowly coming to understand how complex this RDSS software is, as well as the earlier Sartin programs that you use. I got a hint of that by reading some of the Follow Ups about the past upgrades of software. I don't think that many members or evaluators understand the amount of thought and work put into these programs. Because Ted has made RDSS so easy to use, some of us most likely use it like a video game without thought of what went into it's development.
My post was not meant to counter yours in regards to handicapping. I almost didn't post because I respect your ideas and posts so much that my very little understanding of Entropy, V/CD, RDSS or the entire Sartin Methodology would show. I respect so much of what you have put into the forum and that, like Ted, you see and understand things about the nuances of the software and handicapping that most of us cannot appreciate. That is why I have gone back to reading the last 500 threads that you have started and begun studying and following your methods handicapping with all of my PHA/Parx races dating back through 2010.
So I'm not here to flatter you. Thanks. I think I understand where you're coming from and in this matter I trust your knowledge and experience.

I would like to thank Bill V. for his support and help to all members..for always being there for us.
Thank you also to Ted for his patience and continuous work to the future of the Sartin program.We all can look forward and to the future and we have hope that our software keeps in touch with today and the future.
These two guys handle everything in aprofessional manner and with class.They are our brothers...My salute to you,Bill V and Ted.

Ray

And the old Sartin programs I'm still using like Entropy/Exdc/Thoromation and Val4,it still works ...but it may not be able to work someday,like Trackmaster can change their speed ratings and track variants ...I know that with RDSS 2 and Ted behind it,we have hope for today and tomorrow because Ted listens to all suggestions and improvements he can make to RDSS...Again,thanks Ted and Bill V.

Total Energy and the match up
 

I did a much more complex demo of this on Saturday
with a member here .

I would like you to look at this horse Bellamy X #5 Its a E7 no doubt it will go right to the lead is there ? also in this race is horse 7

Attachment 37757

Horse 7 is also a E need the lead horse

Attachment 37758

One of the interesting things about entropy is that the total energy
readouts for each horse will change based on the other horses you match it against

Look at Horse 5 if I only enter its last pace line it gets a raw total energy of 152.30 it gets adjusted by a little to 152.29



Attachment 37754



Now lets see what happens when I add
Horse 7 -the other early need the lead horse I will also add the winner of this race. horse # 2's fastest
route paceline at a comparable distance.
That would be line 6. Line 8 is faster but lest compare 8 furlong distances.

Here we see horse 7 and 2 are faster than
horse 5 in this match up .


Attachment 37756

Attachment 37755

Entropy show me that horse 5 will have to run faster early and Entropy shows this on this readout.

Look how horse 5 now is running at
154.05


This does not happen in RDSS. with total energy
The total energy is the same if you enter 1 line or many other lines
from other horses. a horses paceline is adjusted to a fixed number

This is a big reason Entropy gets different readouts

Thanks Ray

I am desperately looking forward to Ted adding the export feature :)

On thing about Entropy If you use raw pace lines you don't need to worry about speed rating and track varients
Entropy does not use them :)

Thank you for the kind words Ray! Continued success to you with all the 'oldies but goodies' programs.

And YES, Bill V is an international treasure, with his breadth and depth of knowledge of all programs new and old, and his love of teaching. Thank you Bill!

Ted