Tripoli
 

Attachment 49970

Attachment 49971

Interesting. It looks like a few of the jockeys will have to make up their minds on who to ride and for whom.

Early Defections from Classic
 

Well it looks like Todd Pletcher has decided to scratch his two entries: Happy Saver and Dr Post from this race.

Godolphin who owns Essential Quality and Maxfield, has decided to scratch Maxfield from this race.

Regarding jockeys; Luis Saez will definitely ride Essential Quality. With the scratches, top jockey Jose Ortiz is without a mount in this race.

Early Look
 

Mishriff- the European horse trained by John Gosden will enter the Mile and a Half Turf race instead of the Classic.

Without doing any work-up of this race;

This race looks like it centers on the early pace to be set by Knicks Go. This horse stamped himself last year in the Breeders Cup Mile Dirt with a scintillating win. The final time was 1:33.4 but more impressive was the internal pace fractions set by Knicks Go.

Who can go with Knicks Go in the early battle. Medina Spirit can go early but this horse can run off the early pace as he did when Medina Spirit ran 2nd to Life is Good will be the favorite in this year's Breeders Cup Mile dirt.

Idol is out of the race now, too.

Tough Race!!!
 

Early Evaluation:

Starting with the race favorites:

Knicks Go: Horse has never raced at today's distance- I used the last three pacelines to evaluate.

Essential Quality: Top contender for 3 Year Old Colt of the Year= the last pace line up to the mile marker

Max Player= Peaking at the right time and blossoming as a well rested 4 year Old Colt--the last pace line up to the mile marker

Medina Spirit- Kentucky Derby winner until otherwise, Essential Quality had a wide trip in the Derby losing by only a length. I used the last pace line and moved him up to a major effort. I also used his Kentucky Derby pace line up to the mile marker.

Hot Rod Charlie: I used the last pace line of the Pennsylvania Derby.

Tripoli: I used the Pacific Classic line up to the mile marker.

Art Collector: Another hot horse peaking at the right time and now trained by Bill Mott. I used many pacelines for this one. Very hard to evaluate....

Some quick notes for today's race
 

Competitive race
 

I narrowed my final contenders to 4:

Max Player
Art Collector
Medina Spirit
Essential Quality

The expected pace will be swift and strong; Knicks Go will surely go the front for his stablemate Essential Quality. Big question is what other horses will vie for the early pace without expending too much early energy.

Max Player will race the "classic distance" for the third time in a row; very similar pattern as the winning formula for Vino Rosso in Breeders Cup 2019.

Art Collector is fresh and improving horse; with this race as the main objective. This one has some strong sustained energy in its past performances. Can this one put it all together today without getting burned on the early pace today?

Essential Quality is fresh off a two month break by design. Will it be ready enough in its last race of his short career before heading off for Stud Duties. Will be an influential stallion in the future.

Medina Spirit will have to make a decision to send to the front or take back and make one late run.

Great race!!!!

(IMHO) I will go with Max Player and Art Collector.

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