'For the Lead' Guidelines - NEW Compilation
 

Just as a point of clarity for new members to RDSS and some old heads "you're guidelines" are your own and don't follow the guidelines of Sartin teachings.
Mitch44

'For the Lead' Guidelines - NEW Compilation
 

Folks - Bill Lyster has spend a LOT of time compiling many writings of member For the Lead posted here over the years. These are now presented in an organized format for your enjoyment and study in the Sartin Library / Discussion and Member Contributions section:

"For The Lead" Approach to Handicapping – from Brohamer to Sartin and beyond …

Perhaps Bill has some comments about this work, and also FTL is welcomed to comment or elaborate on any points.

Thanks to BOTH of these gentlemen for their contributions to our enjoyment and mastery of the game!

Ted

Matchup
 

The basis of my original post was meant for Pook, as he loves to predict races with matching early horses. This race so happened to catch my eye in that regard, so I felt that it would be of interest to him and other matchers to post it.

I did not bet the race (I was at work when the race was run), but was more interested in seeing if my Early/OTE analysis would pan out. In this case, it did not, as a couple of the "Early" horses I had predicted either took back or just were not fast enough to knock heads up front. As anyone with matching experience knows, if a NTL early can't get the lead, it usually won't run its best race.

Whatever selection guidelines you choose to use, if it works for you, keep doing it. As often as we may agree or disagree with some of the practices demonstrated on this forum, there will be races where some methods simply work better than others. So be it. The point being that we have to be comfortable with how we apply the Methodology. Besides, it is the wagering aspect of the game that really separates the men from the boys. You can be God's gift to handicapping winners yet it means zero if you're a terrible manager of the bankroll.

FTL Guidelines compilation
 

Over the last 5 or 6 years FTL has shared his rigorous contender selection guidelines with us. The more I read, the more it made sense, so I started copying his posts.

There are seven files in the library. The first four come primarily from FTL's threads and the three appendices apply across the board in every day racing analysis. I printed them all out and my binder totals 223 pages.

EVERY race uses the same methodology of line and contender selection.

Admittedly, FTL is not 100% Sartin, but he has used Sartin tools to explain his methods, all to our continued advantage if you pay attention.

FTL has focused on dirt races solely, does not entertain turf races and requires his bets to go to post at 4/1 or better. Obviously, his is a very disciplined and selective method that requires a high degree of discretion and perseverance on the part of the user.

I rehandicapped all of DMR this summer, dirt and turf races. In total 318 races of all kinds.

94% of all races were won by horses that had raced within 90 days; so we eliminate 6% of all races;

2% of all races (no overlap with the 90 day issue BTW) were won by horses whose ML was 20/1 or greater; so between these two elimination criteria we are down to 92% of all races.

Another 11.3% of all races were won by horses changing distance or surface. This is a foggy area for all of us because stretching out or cutting back in distance has always been a tough proposition to assess.

So now we are down to 80.7% of the races being "reasonably" playable.Dirt races were won by 64% of FTL's contenders; turf races were won by about the same %. So somewhere between 16-17% of all races are not covered by FTL's guidelines. About 10% of all races (31) were won by First Time Starters, so now the sample skinnies down to 6-7%.

Another thing to keep in mind. For the DMR meet 79.2% of all winners were TOP FOUR AND TIES IN MORNING LINE ODDS (81% DIRT, 78% TURF)

Where to find the missing winners? For sure YOU will find some that require use of a line more than 90 days old, or that did not finish first, second or third in their last race, or who raced up close early and faded badly or who were ML'd at 20/1. But in FTL's threads I only found two example races where he used a line more than 90 days, once at 92 days and another at either 93 or 94 days. (Co-incidentally, both happened on the same day, same track!)

By the way, in all races at DMR the average number of contenders was 3.67!

Attachment 45312


File titles: (in case the attachment does not show up correctly)
Winning with Early
Why Not Maidens
Picking Contenders and Paceline Selection
Handicap Races
Appendix A, B and C

There is the possibility that some elements of Sartin could be improved upon, just say'in.

Bill your absolutely correct about some elements could be improved upon. And Sartin while alive was constantly tweaking and seeking a better mousetrap. His selection of pace lines was just one area of evolution.

Any new member should be given every chance to succeed by profiting from Sartin mistakes and lessons learned through thousands of races. No new member should have to start in the 1980's to be successful. Sartin always allowed for freelancing however no one starts off playing jazz which comes after a foundation exists of proven concepts and basics. I myself play jazz and will go back pass line 5 under certain situations but I wouldn't recommend it for beginners.

RDSS is an culmination of his best factors from years of research and for it to function effectively proper pace line selection is an essential ingredient to the recipe.

Beginners should be given every opportunity for success and allowed to profit from tens of thousands of races of Sartin research. A successful mechanic should not have to start his trade by learning from Model T cars. His proven concepts are designed to capture the majority not the exception.



Mitch44

Bill thanks very much for taking the time putting that together, since
using FTL's guidelines I have seen a drastic increase in getting the right
contenders.

Thanks Ted for providing a place on the site for this

Jeff

This is amazing. Thank you for all the work involved.

Another Oaklawn Score Thanks to FTL
 

Oaklawn has proved to be a profitable oasis for me thus far thanks mostly to following the Guidelines of FTL. Today's 6th race at Oaklawn was the source of another solid result:

1.Unidvided 6-1 - No line as only rateable line in 90 days was a 0.
2. Nucla 6-5 - Last line which was a Maiden win in the slop at FG
3. Cheponara 10-1 - Last line which was a mile win at CD
4. Caramel Cream 15-1 - No line as last line was a 0 against common opponent First Alternate.
5. Glamorized 6-1- Although you could excuse the last line as it was the first over the OP surface this meeting it was a 0 against First Alternate and Line 2 is more than 90 days old.
6. Memorial Drive 7-2 - Last line which was a Maiden win at FG
1a. Charmin Dixie 6-1 - Same situation as #5 as although last line was first over the OP surface it was a 0 against First Alternate and line 2 was too old.
7. First Alternate 5-1 - last line which was a 2nd earning it a + line.

Here are the 4 contenders and their TPR rankings:

Nucla 155.5 (3)
Cheponara 167.5 (1)
Memorial 150 (4)
First 154 (2)

As both of my top two TPR's were 4-1 or higher I bet both to win and boxed them in the exacta. Was delighted as Cheponara scored and paid $42.80 with First Alternate running second to complete the $278.80 exacta.
I bet 3 dollars on each to win boxed for 2 dollars to receive 343 dollars for a 10 dollar investment. Following the guidelines gets great results yet again!!

Neil