Step by Step 11.0 race
 

This is my step by step look how I did this
weeks Friday night race of the week 8/25 race 7 Del Mar
I would like to say that there are no 100% rules
with the methodology.,Only guidelines and lately as per Doc's
suggestion ,Looking at a little more than just numbers
a little bit of intuition really helps

The race was 11 furlongs for Fillies and Mares 3 and Up
Many of the horses never ran any race close to this distance
I based much of my feeling on horse # 7 which won at 10
furlongs two races back with a raw final time of 200.2
Spec adjusted this to 211.1. I decided to use 10 furlongs
as the distance of the race.

The first step I did was the APV - Class Ratings
I posted this in the race of the week area I will repeat them here
I left out horse 8 but it was very weak 21.8% and 0.39
I added my notes to each horse they were vital in this race

Horse 7
 

Oh kay From the APV-CR The 7 is the key in this race
at 7/5 ML and the class of the field I used line 2 a win at 10 furlongs in a
$150,000 Grade 2 race at hollywood Todays purse is $85,000

Horse 7 Raw
 

This is a look at horse 7 with the original lines
shown after hitting the F2 button
Look at line 2 the final time was 200.2 on the EQulized line on top it became 211.1

Now the rest of the contenders
 

The 2nd favorite was the Entry The solid #1 looks good on APV and CR
so I will go to the 4th line. I'm looking at this race as 10 furlongs
and the purse of line 2 is $200.000 so I will give # 1 a break and us line 4
its adjusted final time is 213.1 It won its race Line 4 with a raw time of 201.2
close to the 7's 200.2

Horse 1a
 

This one rates well on the APV-CR so I will give it a line.
Line 3 from 9.0 furlongs looks like the race to use
with a final adjusted time of 213.3
Why not line 1? a win at 11 furlongs ?
the adjusted final time was 214.8
Plus I am using 10 furlongs as the distance

Horse 2 is out
 

A non contender with a very poor APV CR

The winner
 

The winner I used Line 1
Reason ? feelings and looking at more than numbers
and this time my stupid
feel sorry for the connections and the trainer mentality helped
The APV and Class ratings are very strong (for this field)
I know Im betting as my first win bet either the entry or the 7
so now I'm looking for value and an edge
The APV and CR tell me it ok
I used the last line because of the purse of $80,000
Line 2 and 3 are bad races finish wise at 8.0 furlong
the get 0's In the form cycle I gave line 1 a 0+ for a nice gain from the
stretch to the finish what about line 4 at ten furlongs ?
This is the line I should us and call # 3 a non contender
I went with the last line instead because of the form cycle
good effort in a bad race 0+ rating and a second try at 11
furlongs in a comperable purse value

Horse 4
 

A non contender Very poor APV but good Class
however all the adjusted final times seemed to slow
value yes but not winning this race

Horse 5
 

This one needs Very strong readouts with Poor apv and a lower than
normal winning CR
In my head I have been looking at the CR numbers for a cut off point
so for between my memory and tracking only 10 races on paper
a low point on the CR for me is 93 Nothing is 100%
and 10 races on paper is too small a sample
However asking for 11 furlongs and also to beat two solid favorites
with an 80 CR and only 52% APV seems too much
I left it as a contender only so I could judge its readouts

Horse 6
 

Horse 6 is very similar to horse 5
with a stronger APV but slightly less Class rating
plus the distance of 11 furlongs makes this one a question
only very good readouts can help
I will enter it