tpr ratings analysis
 

How would you apply these TPR to this 7 fur race at Charles Town?Will the race setup early or late?Who would you bet to win?Who would you play in exacta's?Sorry it came out crooked my computer skills suck.Shoeless

HORSE EPR FFR TPR DIFF

FLY 76 81 157 5

INTUIT 76 80 156 4

MAN 81 72 153 -9

CITY 80 73 153 -7

MAG 74 79 153 5

UNISON 78 75 153 -3

you would check your model at this distance. Profile favoring early balance ( 81/72, 80/73) would land u on "man " and "city"

opposite profile favoring late balance( 76/81, 76/80) would land u on "fly" and "intuit"

that is the most profitable way to use tpr numbers Shoeless . Dick Schmidt will tell you most people will not do the work necessary to make these simple yet effective numbers "talk to you".

very effective and simple at the same time
CN

CHIP,But what if you model shows the track to be running even then how would you interperate the race then.Man and City burn each other out or not.Or maybe you shouldnt use the TPR numbers that way.Jeff

If that distance was shown to be won by even balanced horses my decision is real simple after looking at the ratios displayed by your contenders.

PASS

There will be another race in 20 minutes

CN

model
 

Jeff, ln your race example.
If your model says the track/distance says EVEN
I would bet my top 2 TPR. Fly and Tuit
They have a 2 point advantage , they have FFR's
near 80, the two top Epr horses are close but they have weak ( low 70's ) FFR ratings

Bill, if you had waited another 3 weeks, it would have been an even 10 years since the previous post ;)

Where does the time go ...

(None the less, a good take on reading the TPR numbers based on a track/distance model).

Ted

pmtr
 

Thanks Ted

Shoeless and I have been discussing
TPR ratings in RDSS lately
He has come a long way in 10 years
Bill

Hi Bill,

Thanks for the input

I have come a long way in those 10 years but not sure how good
it has been, made a lot of mistakes that I regret.

Jeff

A computer meltdown caused me to lose login creds (as well as tons of other essential data) and it wasn't until this morning I recovered them. Back in biz now though.

"I have come a long way in X years..." :) Hasn't been nearly 10 years, but certainly a lot of water under the bridge.

TPR concept is one of the most consistently strong factors I adopted from using RDSS. It has become a mainstay on the list of factors I consult for every race I handicap. In fact I use it as a database filter to detect bias and find it to be distinctly effective as a predictive tool.
Hope everyone is happy, healthy, and ready for another successful year of handicapping.
Best wishes to all.