4/30-PRX- Race 8
 

1 Chessen- line 2 - 6/1
4 For Lat - line 5 - 7/2
6 Kapran - line 2 - 5/2
7 Just L - line 3 -5/2


Feel free to chime in...

5,5f at Parx run lp on my model. Good luck Ray.
Tim G

Thanks,Tim...I made a one-horse win bet on #6 Kapran at 6/1.It was 5/2 on my line.It was a value bet to me.It loss but I have long accepted in my mindset that since I average 30% wins w/$8.20 ave.mutuel betting one horse,i'll lose 70 bets out of 100 bets.I don't know how many players can visualize winning 30 and losing 70 every 100 bets but that's real-world betting.It is not 3 out of 10 short-term because to make real money,you have to keep it going and going,like a machine.Sometimes I bet 2 horses to win and my ave.win % is 47% with an ave.mutuel of $11.80.That means I know I will lose 53 times out of 100 bets betting 2-horses.Again,many players cannot accept losing 53 times in a hundred bets.they only think of 9 out of 20 short-term.But that's not real-world-betting.You have to keep it churning and churning by volume.In the last few issues of the Follow-Up,Doc mentioned some members were no longer after the 60% win ave. on 2-horse-win-betting because they would rather get around 48% but getting higher -paying mutuels...I take a week off after 6 weeks of betting because I know i'll burn out...So many players go from one software to the next after a few losing bets,looking for that 'holy grail' program...but reality is ,the Sartin programs are good,you just have to grind it out,winning and losing,winning and losing...day-in and day-out...making value bets and many wagers will have to be bet to realize the profits that we all dream about...If you are doing it as a hobby,that's fine.I have no problem with that.But I know most want to make money...and that's what I'm trying to say to those who will listen.

Ray I would like to commend you on your strict discipline when betting. You are correct that most of us,including myself, would lack the courage to lose 70 of 100 races and still stay the course. I am a 2 horse bettor and my minimum odds to bet is 5/2 dutching 60/40. At present I'm winning 64% of my bets with an avg. win price of $7.85. I like the idea of relaxing for a week to recharge your batteries. Thanks for sharing your insight and I'm looking forward to more of your post.
Tim G

Hi Ray,

I'm listening. I hear ya. A fellow grinder. Those that try and grind out a daily profit over the long term are the members I find most interesting here. My numbers are similar to yours and it isn't easy to do. Like you say you have to be willing to lose a lot. Not 7 of 10, but 70 of a 100 or 700 of 1000. Not quite so many when betting more than one but your investment is higher. Not many can without caving in.

I worked your race earlier and decided it was a pass for me. So I pushed it anyway and came away with the 5,7. The 7 wins and pays 4 and change. Wouldn't have been a bet at that price.

The 7 was bet down from 5/2 ML as many favourites are. They sometimes take a real dive after post time. I believe it was you who posted once about whale activity and how they have computer programs that read pools. You gave the impression that some of them have privileged access after the races go off. I'm not sure if you intended that, but that would be impossible and illegal. If that were the case we all might as well pack up and go home. Sure the odds can change a quarter of the way into a race, but that is just reflecting all late betting activity which must take a few seconds to compile.

I enjoy seeing your use of the classic programs on which RDSS is based. I wasn't using that software back then but the primitive horsey icons remind me of Space Invaders or Super Mario.

Keep posting,
Pook

Hi Tim,

Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you've written but you say you won't accept odds under 5/2 but your average win price is only $7.85? A lot of your horses must slip way down after you bet them to keep the average that low. Or you must be on a ton of 5/2 and 3/1 horses. Seems odd.

Pook

Pook I play PARX most of the time and as you may know many times 5/2 shots take big hits at the last second dropping them to 2-1 or less[usually to late to cancel the bet]. Heck last week I bet a horse that was 4-1 a min. before post time that ended up 7/5. I know a lot of folks don't play the medium to small tracks because of that factor but I take the good with the bad since Parx and others I play card the races I want to play. And yes I do end up with a high % of 5/2 to 7/2 winners which is fine with me.
Tim G

Pook,

If I did not see what this 'whale-friend' software can do,i won't believe it too.He can make the bets when the gate is closed that will instantly tell him where to put his money for maximum profit and rebate.He mentioned things to me that I only realized now.Just another proof that there's a lot of illegal stuff and bad things going on in horse racing.

The following is only my opinion...The powers that be and track management don't care about us,the little guy and the fans that support the game....Horse racing is dying and it's just a matter of time.Sports betting is getting widespread and there's a push for legal sports betting in New Jersey and soon,most states will go for it in the pursuit for money.

Jersey has been trying that for over 15 years, don't hold your breath. The casinos there control everything while the tracks get shafted. The tracks there can't really compete with surrounding tracks with their casinos. Trey have lowered their purses etc. to stay alive.
Mitch44

I don't know about placing bets after the race is off but I have a friend who showed me how he was able to cancel a bet after the first 1/4 mile had been run. I believe he could only do it at the track. Did it twice at Aqu. the day I was with him. So if he can do that then it could very well be possible for a savvy person to sneak a bet in after the race is off.
Tim G