Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   2015 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=144)
-   -   B.C. Dirt Mile - Race 7 - Friday (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10298)

RichieP 10-30-2015 09:56 AM

B.C. Dirt Mile - Race 7 - Friday
 
1 Attachment(s)
I'm using #3 Liam's Map to project pace right off his last line - 47.5 - 110.9.

He has shown faster times around 2 turns with 2 back and 4 back. He also is not a pure "E" runner pressing and winning from 2nd position 4 back and 6 back.

Tandems show he has crushed the #8 Wicked Strong twice by 6 lengths plus both times. Also buried the #5 Lea by over 10 lengths when they met.

Heavy fav appears deservedly so.

RichieP 10-30-2015 10:05 AM

5 Attachment(s)
Here are the full pp's for each runner with my lines marked.

I started with best of last 3 line selector than made some adjustments based on projected pace. I also adjusted running styles manually to what I felt was in line with the runners when they faced today's expected pace.

Just as an FYI right out of the box with no "fiddling" the #2 and # 10 (neither have faced the "giant" #3 btw) are highly ranked with both at 10/1 on the ml.

RichieP 10-30-2015 10:09 AM

5 Attachment(s)
Remainder of the field:

RichieP 10-30-2015 10:20 AM

3 Attachment(s)
Here are the TPR / Segments and BLBL screens:

Personally I am not looking to bet against the favorite here, I dont play exotics.


Might be better races offering value and I definitely see the Distaff carded as today's 9th as one of them! I'm looking OTE for the win off a projected pace of 47 - 111 by the #10 Yahilwa's last line here at Keeneland.

Bill Lyster 10-30-2015 11:58 AM

Richie, great to see you posting again. Look forward to more, more, more.

Thanks,

Bill

Bill V. 10-30-2015 12:26 PM

Richie P !
 
Hello Rich

Here is what I see

3 way tie on VDC
Code:

                KEE1030 7 8.0 D G1 3+  $1,000,000 4:10PM

                        THE  V A L I D A T O R (VAL4)

┌─┬───────────┬───┬───┬────────┐  ┌───┬───┬───┬───┬──┬──┬──┐  ┌──────┐  ┌────┐
│#│PN NAME LdT│SPR│BAL│  TOT-R│  │EPR│LPR│CPR│ TT│FW│HE│FX│  │V/DC-T│  │SUPP│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│1│ 1 RED V3 1│ 91│  6│167.16-2│  │  2│  3│  2│  2│ 4│ 2│ 5│  │    3│  │  5│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│2│ 2 BRADE3 1│ 93│  6│167.50-1│  │  1│  4│  1│  1│ 3│ 3│ 3│  │    1│  │  2│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│3│ 3 LIAM'3  │ 91│  6│167.01-3│  │  2│  3│  2│  3│ 4│ 3│ 4│  │    4│  │  4│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│4│ 5 LEA  6  │ 91│  6│166.62-4│  │  3│  2│  3│  4│ 2│ 1│ 2│  │    1│  │  3│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│5│ 6 STREE1  │ 91│  6│166.34-5│  │  4│  1│  2│  5│ 1│ 2│ 1│  │    1│  │  1│
└─┴───────────┴───┴───┴────────┘  └───┴───┴───┴───┴──┴──┴──┘  └──────┘  └────┘

Code:

                KEE1030 7 8.0 D G1 3+  $1,000,000 4:10PM

                      INCREMENTAL MATCH-UP GRAPH (VAL4)
┌───────────┬────────────────────┬─────────────────────┬──────────────────────┐
│# PNcNAME L│        1F        │        2F          │    3F+TOTAL PACE    │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│1  1 RED V3│          3->      │            2->    │          3->        │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│2  2 BRADE3│                1->│                  1->│                  1->│
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│3  3 LIAM'3│      4->          │        3->        │      4->            │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│4  5 LEA  6│  5->              │    4->            │                  1->│
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│5  6 STREE1│              2->  │ 5->                │                  1->│
└───────────┴────────────────────┴─────────────────────┴──────────────────────┘


RichieP 10-30-2015 03:59 PM

3 Attachment(s)
O.M.G. - Hello "Bill's" - Lyster and Varone!
It's like deja vu all over again:)

Hope you guys are doing great!

Hey before the race runs (looks like about 15 mtp) I just want to put up the out of the box readouts using all the default settings.

Here they are

Bill Lyster 10-30-2015 04:30 PM

Nice call on the horses ability to sit off the pace; he needed today and did it.

Bill Lyster 10-30-2015 04:33 PM

I have the 2-3-7-10 and 15 in the pick three. I used the top two Timeform ratings for the first race in this sequence and for the 3-10 in leg three

RichieP 10-31-2015 08:43 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Here is the result chart for the race


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