Some Thoughts for 2019
 

Some Thoughts for 2019:

Memorize this formula: EV = (Odds +1) x (Probability of Winning), if your bet or group bet does not create an EV greater than 1.0, you won't win

Those who complain how hard it is to estimate the probability of winning do not realize that we are playing a gambling game of decision making under uncertainty, and those who dominate the betting pools are spending the time and effort to make these estimates


In Sports Betting, Suckers/Squares bet teams, while Sharps/Pros bet numbers


Similarly, in Horse Betting, Suckers/Squares bet horses, while Sharps/Pros bet Odds

Never bet a horse to win going off at less than even money: there are few, if any, horses that have a greater than 50% chance of winning any race

Never spend more than 7 minutes on your race and bet analysis: the breakdown should be no more than 2 minutes for race analysis (contenders, pace lines, analysis of favorites) and no more than 5 minutes to construct a wager. If you are using a computer program, Trust The Machine. Remember, those who dominate the betting pools are trusting their machine and probably using an algo to make the bets.


If you end up looking to bet a horse to win whose odds are 7/2 or lower, make sure you can toss at least one horse to win whose win odds are 3-1 or lower to give you a chance at +EV


If your method selects win contenders, your minimum win odds requirement is your number of contenders -- that is, if you have 3 win contenders your minimum win odds to make a win bet is 3-1, etc.


If your method does not separate win contenders, you minimum win odds requirement is the number of horses in the race divided by 2 -- that is, 8 horses then minimum win odds is 4-1, etc.


Some of this may seem harsh, but I guarantee that if you do not adhere to these betting principles you will not win. The rest is up to you.


Richard

I like all of this post, but my favorite line is quoted above. By itself, it improved my ROI. Having spent a lot of time with Richard at Keeneland, I no longer play races in which I can't toss at least one low-odds favorite.

My race analysis takes a little longer than 2 minutes (his brain has another gear) but I understand his point. The focus should be on the wager.

I believe in tailoring the bet based on your analysis. Personally I believe more time should be placed on analysis and then tailor the bet to capitalize on that analysis.


But if the above is working for you then go for it.


Mitch44

Nothing constructive to add, except I really like this thread. Estimate the probabilities as best you can, then hold out for the reward that compensates for the risk. In my beginners opinion, that’s the whole game.

Let me see if I understand the formula.

If my group bet (2 horses) has a combined chance to win of 50% then the average odds of those 2 horses only has to be better than EVEN money?

1.0 = (1 + 1) x 0.5

Swiftly,

I don't know how to write the correct equation for you, but yours doesn't include, and compensate for, the 50% of the time when both your horses lose.

I believe it does include that. That is, if the combined chance of 2 horses to win is 50% it inherently says their combined chance to lose is the remainder (which is also 50% in this case).

Any win percentage always implies the opposite loss percentage.

The chance of 1 horse to win is 50% but as written in the post as 2 horses to win you have to multiply .50 * .50. The chance 2 horses would win is .25 or 25% requiring 3:1 odds to make a 0 EV play. They would have to win more than 25% to be a +EV play.

Use a truer scenario and make it a 6 horse field. With no handicapping to sort the winner, each horse has a 16.67% chance of winning. Odds of 5:1

I doubt you would find a race where 2 horses each have a 50% chance of winning and 4 horses would have 0%. If you assign the 4 horses a combined 10% you would have 90% for the other 2. Separately they both have a 45% chance of winning and 55% chance of not running first. If you try to use both horses as a 90% chance you are trying to find the chance of a dead heat for first.

Basically, I arrived at a hypothetical 50% chance to win with 2 horses by assigning a win percentage chance for each horse and combing them because their dutched, so either winning is a win.

For example, if the true odds of horse A is 30% chance to win and the true odds of horse B is 20% chance to win, then the odds of winning the race (i.e. either horses wins) is 30% + 20% = 50%.

It's the same principal with dice. The odds of any number coming up is 16.66%, so if I hope a 1 OR a 2 comes up I have a 33% chance of success (16.66% for the 1 and 16.66% chance for the 2 = 33% either a 1 or a 2 is rolled).

50% of time the #1 or #2 horse will win. At 2:1 odds you win $6.00 when either of your horses win. 50% of the time you lose and you will have to bet $8.00 each time. $4.00 on #1 to win with another bet on #2 who will lose. Then $4.00 on #2 to win and #1 to lose.

EV= (+6.00 * .50) + (-8.00 * .50)
EV = (+3.00) + (-4.00)
EV = -1.00

You will need to have better than 2:1 odds to make it +EV.