Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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tfm 12-18-2008 07:08 PM

You got to LOVE TURFWAY PARK
 
2 Attachment(s)
Just started playing TP and, what can I say?, I love it!

It's the perfect track for someone who does best playing off the pace types and is about as 'formful' as you'd want.

Sorry for the redboard that's about to follow.

Tonight's 4th.

The charts for the contenders are attached. They both ran on 12/3 at the same distance (8F), same class (clmg $5,000) but in different races.

Here are the splits:

Race 3: 24.61 48.61 1:14.35 1:28.46 1:42.90

As you can see from the chart, this race fell apart, with faster early fractions, with Love Dubai getting up at the wire very late. And, they crawled home.

Race 2: 24.92 49.20 1:14.93 1:28.35 1:42.11

Here, Kite Falcon set easy early fractions and accelerated, relative to Race 3, when it counted and 'wiped out' the field. The rest were backing up. (A 'wipeout' chart is about as strong as it gets on the turf or poly.)

What can I conclude? KF won easily AND he probably can get the EXTRA 1/16th as he (relatively) sped up in the later part of the race.

So, KF goes off at 6:1, and LD is sent off the chalk, and KF GALLOPS.

$14.80 to win and a $45.40 exacta.

If this is appears TOO SIMPLE/EASY for the pace afficionados here (and I don't mean this in a negative way) it might be because it just is. This track plays fair and the prices are excellent.

tfm 12-18-2008 07:36 PM

Race 9

Take a shot with #12, Mara. She's stepping up in class and breaks from the extreme outside but the price is right.

mikesal57 12-19-2008 08:01 AM

your right about this track...nice prices and fields...plus its very good while matching up too...I'm glad AQU is closed for a while, couldnt pick my nose over there

mike

tom 12-19-2008 09:34 AM

I made my lifetime best score at Turfway, on poly. I love the place.

Bill V. 12-19-2008 02:47 PM

Tom
 
Can you tell us what your best score was ?

Thanks Bill

clore1030 12-19-2008 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikesal57 (Post 45100)
your right about this track...nice prices and fields...plus its very good while matching up too...I'm glad AQU is closed for a while, couldnt pick my nose over there

mike

I'm jonesing over no Big A. I was having one of the best week's of my life there. I don't feel comfortable with out-of-town tracks and it's too much work to do the R&D just for a week or so.

But today my consolation is that they would have had to cancel the card at Aqueduct anyway with the weather. Is the white stuff piling up in your area?

Tim Y 12-19-2008 06:27 PM

SNOW DAY. Toronto is -19C and blizzard conditions.

BUT, I cannot wait for my return to AQU.

clore1030 12-19-2008 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim Y (Post 45118)
SNOW DAY. Toronto is -19C and blizzard conditions.

BUT, I cannot wait for my return to AQU.

Someone asked me "what are you doing on Christmas?"

I responded "handicapping the next day's card at Aqueduct."

tom 12-19-2008 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V. (Post 45109)
Can you tell us what your best score was ?

Thanks Bill

It was a $100+ horse and a $500+ exacta. I played it not knowing the odds, a top CJ fig horse with the best late pace number as well. Thinking 5-1, 10-1, maybe, I bet a chunk on it, hoping for a score. I about coughed up my spleen when I saw the results. Late Pace was doing very well at TP and I liked it being a double horse - two underlines, so to speak. HTR velocity had it #2 SP and #3 late pace, both good at TP routes. I had to go back three lines to get it, but the top two were on dirt, and dismall. The horse had won well on poly three times, never good on dirt at all.

Bill V. 12-20-2008 07:11 AM

nice feeling
 
Thanks Tom

I try to explain that feeling to people
Lots of people ask me for picks at work
sometimes when they come in I'm more happy then they are
and they bet the race much bigger than I do

Its just knowing before hand the horse is gonna win

Just knowing ....... its all fitting nicely then it goes just the way you see
it.

Bill


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